NBA Playoff Pick 'Em: Why the NBA Finals is more about the player props

The Miami Heat have put together one of the most inspiring Cinderella runs in recent NBA history. They went from being down double digits in the fourth quarter of the last-chance play-in game against Toronto, to up 3-0 against Boston, to losing three straight, to completely obliterating the Celtics on their own home floor en route to the finals.

It has been a storybook playoff run for Jimmy Butler and friends.

And it’s a shame is has to end at the hands of the best player in the world.

I’m picking Denver to win, and so are the sportsbooks, so a simple series pick won’t do here. The fun is to be had on player props, picking the series score and game-to-game betting.

So let’s get it.

The matchup

Denver Nuggets (-425) vs Miami Heat (+325)

Let’s start with the basics. I’ve got Denver (-425) winning the series, but those odds are so unfavourable it’s almost not worth betting on unless you’re going to stake big money to win small. It does, however, feel like a slam dunk. Miami has done two things consistently throughout the playoffs to pull off upsets of Milwaukee, New York and Boston.

First, they’ve run more zone defence than nearly anyone in NBA history. This has allowed them to hide Duncan Robinson on the defensive end, so he can stay on the floor and provide spacing and scoring on offence. It feeds into the second thing they’ve done well: Playing small.

Nikola Jokic breaks all of that by himself. No need for a tactical adjustment. Simply by being himself, Jokic either makes both of those key strategies unusable or he punishes them harshly.

Boston lacked the size to punish Miami’s small lineups inside. Robert Williams isn’t a scorer, and Al Horford has become a corner-three specialist in his advanced age. Jokic, Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray all excel at putting intense pressure on a team’s interior defence.

What about the zone? There are three ways to break down a 2-3 zone: Employ a big who is an elite passer, shoot the ball well from deep and get dribble penetration. Denver can do all three. There is no more elite passing big man in NBA history than Jokic. Every single rotation player on the Nuggets shoots around league average or better from three (yes, even Aaron Gordon), and Murray can get inside a defence with the best of them.

All of this to say: It’s Denver’s series to lose. Even if Miami continues to overperform on offence (the Heat were the league’s worst regular season offence), I just don’t think they have the bodies to stop Jokic, and thus Denver as a whole, who every day look more and more like the NBA’s most cohesive and complete team.

Series bets

Don’t bother with betting on the series itself unless you plan on taking a flyer on Miami. But you can get pretty good odds on Denver sweeping or winning in five (+575 and +220, respectively). I think there’s also value in the spread for Game 1.

Miami is coming off a physically and emotionally exhausting seven-game series against a very physical team. The Heat have had to spend three rounds playing as if their lives were on the line. Now, with just two days of rest (one of which is a travel day), they head to one of the most inhospitable road environments in the league.

I love Denver (-8.5) in the series opener. The Nuggets are 30-18-1 at home against the spread, and 42-7 straight up at home this season, including the playoffs. They are also so much better than Boston at generating open shots that I foresee a blowout.

My favourite bet for this series is Jokic to record four or more triple doubles (+450). It’s not a slam dunk, but if Miami insists on running a 2-3 zone, it’s more of a slam dunk than those odds indicate. If Jokic plays them out of the zone, then it just increases his ability to get assists, as he’ll likely draw lots of double-teams. If you take Denver in four or five, this can also be a nice little hedge against the series going longer.

Player props

Jokic’s Game 1 point line is over/under 27.5. Hammer the over, even with a slightly larger than normal vig. I also like Butler over 27.5 coming off a down series against a team perfectly designed to make him work hard. Caleb Martin at 16.5 feels like a trap. I like the under there for a guy who averaged less than 10 this season. He’s been on a playoffs-long heater, but I always love a regression-based bet.

As long as you can get Bam Adebayo over 8.5 rebounds, take it. For Miami to have a chance, Adebayo needs to rebound like the series depends on it. I’m sure head coach Eric Spoelstra is making that point in the locker room as the Head prepare for the series.

This series should feature a lot of three-point shooting. It’s written on Denver’s DNA, and Jokic is so good at getting open looks for shooters that I like the over for any Nugget whose line is 0.5 (Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon and Jeff Green in Game 1). Miami almost needs to bomb away from deep to keep up, so I like both Butler and Kyle Lowry over 0.5 threes made. If any of those numbers jump to 1.5, I don’t like it as much, but as long as it only takes one made three to hit, I love it.

I plan on fading Murray a lot, since I think Miami is likely to key on limiting his production and forcing Jokic to do more scoring than he wants to. That means under 3.5 threes made, and under 25.5 points. If either of those lines goes up, I’m hammering the under, and even at those numbers, it’s worth a one-unit bet. Whether it’s Lowry, Butler or Martin, the Heat do have the horses to slow Murray down.

This feels like a lopsided series preview because I truly believe it’s a lopsided matchup. Sometimes the NBA rhymes with its own history. The last time an 8-seed made the finals, the 1999 New York Knicks got destroyed by the best team in the West (San Antonio) led by their generational big man (Tim Duncan) looking for his first championship. I think that’s what happens here for Denver and Jokic.

Denver in 5 (+220) is the official pick.

As always, play safe and don’t chase.