NBA Playoffs First Round: One key stat for each remaining series

Has there ever been a first round of the NBA Playoffs so up in the air? 

With only three of the eight first-round series in the books, it feels as though any outcome is still on the table. The Western Conference is living up to its billing as being up for grabs. Meanwhile, the Eastern Conference, which initially seemed like the level-headed, easily predictable friend, has instead put its beer down and gone full throttle into chaos. 

Despite the outcome of each game feeling like a pure shot in the dark, a few telling numbers have come to define the playoffs up to now. 

Here’s a look at one key stat for each of the remaining first-round playoff series.

Donovan Mitchell’s combined fourth-quarter point total over the last three games: six points

The biggest question coming into this series was how Donovan Mitchell would perform in a "You Belong With Me," Taylor Swift-style revenge story, with the overlooked Cavaliers swooping in to steal the perfect match Mitchell from the popular but maybe less compatible Knicks.

Would there be a chip on the guard’s shoulder? Would he be mad that his hometown team didn’t pay up for him and go into the series wanting to rub it in their face? 

After Game 1, that certainly felt like the case, with the Elmsford, N.Y., native dropping a vengeful 38 points, including 14 in the fourth quarter. 

Since then, though, the Knicks have shut him down in an attempt to prove that they never needed him, anyway. His point tallies in the fourth quarters of Games 2, 3 and 4? Two points in each contest.  

In Game 4, Mitchell struggled throughout the second half, missing eight shots in a row and only scoring his first points of the half with two minutes left in the fourth quarter.

Moreover, his counterpart on the Knicks, Jalen Brunson, was clinical in the fourth quarter of Game 4, knocking down two key three-pointers to prevent the Cavs from catching up. 

To rub salt in the wound, Brunson outperforming Mitchell is a mirror image of last year’s first-round series between the Mavericks and Jazz, when Brunson averaged 27.8 points to Mitchell’s 25.5 (on 39 per cent from the field and 20 per cent from deep). 

Now, with the Knicks up 3-1 against the Cavaliers, could Mitchell’s revenge story be cut short by not only the guard who shut him down last year but by filling the shoes he pictured himself in?

Grizzlies’ team true shooting percentage: .519

Throughout the regular season, the Grizzlies weren’t known as an efficient team. They excelled on the defensive end and were strong on the offensive glass, averaging 12 offensive boards a night while scoring the sixth-most putbacks per game (7.8 points per game).

Though they excelled in the hustle stats of steals and offensive rebounds, those stats don’t necessarily indicate success (e.g., the Raptors were second in offensive boards and first in steals per game). Instead, they indicate an inefficient team relying on extra possessions to score enough points to survive. 

Such has been the case for the Grizzlies, whose playoff-worst .519 true shooting percentage has been their downfall against the Lakers. That mark is the worst of a top-four-seeded team since the Raptors had a .507 true shooting percentage in the 2016 playoffs.

Because Memphis didn’t have to go head-to-head against the Lakers every night in the regular season, their poor shooting but incredible work on the glass didn’t come back to bite them. 

However, when dealing with the regular season’s second-best defensive rebounding team in the Lakers, that strategy doesn’t tend to work. The Grizzlies are down to 6.0 points from 7.8 on putbacks, but more importantly, are shooting only 45.8 per cent on those looks. 

If they can’t succeed on their bread-and-butter looks, a team such as the Grizzlies that hasn't proven it can score in different ways might see its inefficiency from deep and from the free throw line be the bane of its existence. 

Jimmy Butler’s field goal percentage: .628
Miami Heat’s field goal percentage: .540

What the Miami Heat are pulling off is nothing short of spectacular. 

The Milwaukee Bucks felt like a shoo-in to at least make the conference finals and were title favourites coming into the playoffs. However, with one more loss, their run this year might be one of the biggest burnouts in playoff history. Only four times in playoff history has the No. 8 seed taken down the No. 1 seed.

Their potentially historic run is being carried on the back of one of the best playoff performers of this generation of hoopers in Jimmy Butler, whose theatrics in the 2020 bubble almost singlehandedly brought the Heat to the finals. 

He seems to have stumbled on that magic once more, averaging the second most points per game in the playoffs with 36.5 while carrying the fifth-best field-goal percentage, at .628. 

Miami as a whole has followed suit, though, with the team shooting a playoff-best .540 from the field, 25 percentage points higher than the second-place Boston Celtics. 

They’re also first in field-goal percentage, first in three-point percentage and first in offensive rating. What’s even more mind-boggling is that the Heat offence was abysmal in the regular season, ranking 26th, 27th and 25th in those respective stats. 

Though Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo missed Games 2 and 3 with a back injury, the Heat made him look silly on defence in Game 4, with Miami scoring 76.9 per cent of its looks against the two-way beast. 

Kings’ three-point percentage: .303

The Sacramento Kings’ Cinderella run to the playoffs came on the back of their gangbusters offence, fuelled by the league’s second-highest field-goal percentage (.494), ninth-highest three-point percentage (.369) and highest-ever offensive rating (119.4).

Though so far in the playoffs, their onslaught has been stymied, though not entirely at the hands of the Golden State Warriors. On wide-open three-point looks (closest defender 6+ feet away), they’re shooting 31 per cent on 21 attempts per game, the most looks of any team in the playoffs.

To compare, they shot 19.8 wide-open threes per game in the regular season, hitting 39 per cent of them. 

The biggest culprit for this massive downturn has been shooting guard Kevin Huerter, whose 40 per cent rate from deep in the regular season is down to 14 per cent in the playoffs on 5.3 attempts per game. 

Veteran Harrison Barnes has also struggled against his old team, shooting 25 per cent from long range compared to his 37 per cent in the regular season. 

The team-wide struggles on open looks has forced the offence to become more reliant on inaugural Clutch Player of the Year De’Aaron Fox, who’s seen a bump in usage rate from the regular season but a drop in field-goal percentage. 

Sacramento relied on its role players to function as reliable outlet passes for Fox on drives or from Sabonis in the post. However, despite the open looks the Kings are getting for their perimeter guys, they’ve struggled to capitalize in what has become one of the most tightly contested first-round series. 

They'll also have to do it with a potentially limited Fox, as the first-time All-Star suffered a broken finger in Game 4.

Jayson Tatum’s field-goal percentage in their last three games: .397

Though the attention is squarely on the Milwaukee Bucks’ potential upset at the hands of the Miami Heat, the Hawks are not-so-quietly also priming for an upset of their own. 

After Trae Young hit the game-winner in their fifth outing on Tuesday night, it became reasonable to ask if the Hawks could pull off the 3-1 comeback and the massive 2-7 seed upset. 

For reference, the seventh seed has advanced past the first round only five times. No team has ever done it down 3-1. 

If the Hawks are going to do it, they’ll of course have to do it on the back of Young, but they’ll also need to hope that Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum’s struggles continue. 

Over the last three games, the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals MVP has returned to his NBA Finals self, shooting an abysmal 39 per cent on 21 attempts per game. He’s also shooting at 26 per cent from deep on 11.3 attempts. 

His point totals are still impressive, with the wing scoring above 25 in all but one of the games in this series. However, going 9-for-34 from three-point range over the last three games is a recipe for disaster for the Celtics.