NBA Playoffs Preview: Underdog Cavaliers facing tall task in Celtics

It’s gone as expected for the Boston Celtics. Coming into the season as one of the favourites in the East, they made it through the first round without too much of a hitch. 

Though they lost Game 2 and may be without centre Kristaps Porzingis for an indefinite amount of time with a calf strain, they got some much-needed revenge against the Miami Heat, handily taking them down in five games. 

Jimmy Butler can talk all he wants about how the Celtics would be home if he was on the court, but the display put on in the first round looked like a team on the brink of inevitability. 

The Cavaliers come into their first second-round series since the LeBron years under much different circumstances. Questions of inconsistency plaguing everyone not named Donovan Mitchell are foreboding and, despite making it past Orlando, Cleveland didn’t look like a team making an assertion in their Game 7 win. 

That isn’t to say they don’t have a chance. They’re a young team on the rise and their series against the Magic was only the second taste of playoff action for Evan Mobley and Darius Garland. And after a poor showing last season, Mitchell played with a renewed ferocity under the bright lights, with performances reminiscent of his time in the bubble, duelling it out with Jamal Murray in an all-time series. 

This is a battle between the favourites that cemented their deserved reputations and a young underdog squad led by a guy who proved he can take over games when the lights are bright. What makes the playoffs so special is the uncertainty of it all, so ruling out any possibilities here would be foolish. 

Here’s a more in-depth preview of the David vs. Goliath series tipping off Tuesday night. 

Season series: Celtics won 2-1

Dec. 12, 2023, CLE @ BOS: Celtics def. Cavaliers 120-113
Dec. 14, 2023, CLE @ BOS: Celtics def. Cavaliers 116-107
March 05, 2024, BOS @ CLE: Cavaliers def. Celtics 105-104

Betting line

Celtics -2000 to win series
Cavaliers +1000 to win series
Game 1: Celtics -11.5/Cavaliers +11.5. O/U 209.0
All odds courtesy of Bet365 

Series schedule: 

Game 1 @ BOS: Tuesday, May 7 @ 7:00 p.m. ET
Game 2 @ BOS: Thursday, May 9 @ 7:00 p.m. ET
Game 3 @ CLE: Saturday, May 11 @ 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 4 @ CLE: Monday, May 13 @ 7:00 p.m. ET
Game 5 (if necessary) @ BOS: Wednesday, May 15 @ TBD
Game 6 (if necessary) @ CLE: Friday, May 17 @ TBD
Game 7 (if necessary) @ BOS: Sunday, May 19 @ TBD

Boston lived up to its billing in the first round, dismantling the Heat save a ridiculously hot shooting night from Miami in Game 2. The Celtics won their four games by an average of 19.5 points and are behind only the Thunder (15.75) for the second-highest point differential in Round 1 of the playoffs at 15.6. 

They shot by far the most 3-pointers, with 47.9 per cent of their looks coming from deep, and hit 38.5 per cent of them, the second-highest mark behind the Thunder. 

Despite Jayson Tatum struggling, scoring only 21.8 points on .416/.290/.800 shooting splits, the rest of the team has more than made up. Derrick White in particular has been stellar, as the guard is scoring 22.4 points a game on .577/.477/.900 splits. Jaylen Brown has also come through with a steady 22.8 points a game. 

The Porzingis injury will surely test their resolve in this round, as the Cavaliers’ twin towers of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen (if he’s back from his rib injury) should test their physicality down low. 

However, the Celtics were blocked the least in the NBA during the regular season, with only 3.7 blocks against per game, and in their series against the Heat, they were blocked only 1.4 times a game. The lack of a big against their ridiculous five-out offence might be the exact matchup the Cavaliers don’t want to deal with. 

Donovan Mitchell is the only reason that the Cavaliers made it through to the second round. 

The five-time all-star was playing unreal in the final two games of the series, scoring 50 points in Game 6 and dragging the Cavaliers to a comeback win in Game 7 with 39.

In all, he averaged 28.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.4 steals on .459/.250/.824 shooting splits in the first round. Maybe not the prettiest line, but looking at the rest of the team, you can’t complain all too much about his efficiency. 

Fifth-year guard Darius Garland took a big step back in the regular season, averaging only 18.0 points and 6.5 assists, both down from his past two seasons. But in the playoffs, he’s turned it way down a notch with only 14.9 points and 5.4 assists. 

As a team, the Cavaliers are shooting 28.7 per cent from deep, the second-lowest mark in the playoffs behind the Pelicans (26.7) and finished with the lowest point differential of all teams that made the second round (-4.43).

Getting past the Celtics was already going to be a tall task, but if the players around Mitchell aren’t able to find their rhythm, the brooms might be coming out. 

Jrue Holiday (Celtics): In the playoffs last season, Jrue Holiday, while still with the Bucks, scored 17.8 points a game. He’s all the way down to 7.8 a game so far, but that’s not why he’s a Celtic. Holiday has formed the most dogged defensive backcourt duo in the NBA with White, and his ability to switch 1-5 has been otherworldly. He’ll likely draw the matchup against Mitchell, and if he can shut down the Cavaliers’ No. 1 guy, it’s hard to see Cleveland having a backup plan.  

Evan Mobley (Cavaliers): With Porzingis out an indefinite amount of time, the Cavaliers will want to force their way in down low. Mobley will have to be the catalyst for that attack. Though not known for his physicality in the paint, the third-year big hits 77.0 per cent of his looks within three feet of the basket. With the Celtics’ point-of-attack defence set to give fits to Mitchell and Garland, the Cavaliers will have to find a way to unlock Mobley and use their size advantage. 

Don’t beat yourself (Celtics): This series is the Celtics’ to lose. A concern could be that they’re overly reliant on the three as they shot 42.5 a game in the regular season, three more than the second-place Dallas Mavericks. But if their shot is falling, they’re unbeatable. Even when it wasn’t in Game 3 against the Heat, their defence choked out Miami for an easy 104-84 win. So long as the Celtics don’t beat themselves, don’t deviate away from who they’ve been all season and don’t have 2018 Houston Rockets-level shooting performances, this should be a cakewalk. 

Garland finds his form (Cavaliers): With only one guy playing at all-star levels this season, the Cavaliers just don’t have the firepower to contend with the Celtics. In his first year playing alongside Mitchell, Garland showed that he could still work without being the primary option as he scored 21.6 a game while hitting a career-high 41.0 per cent from deep. They’ve proven they can work with and excel with one another, but if the Cavaliers want to have a chance at getting past the second round, they can’t be a one-man team.