NBA Southeast Division Preview: Are Lowry and the Heat set for a decline?

The Southeast Division, at first glance, might look like a one-team division, but there are a couple other squads that shouldn’t be underestimated heading into the 2022-23 NBA season in it.

The Miami Heat are the clear frontrunner of the division after a very successful 2021-22 season, however, thanks to some exciting moves made in the off-season, the Atlanta Hawks look like a club that could contest the Heat’s division crown. As well, the Washington Wizards could be a dark horse team in the division after making some shrewd off-season moves of their own.

The Charlotte Hornets are the most interesting team to monitor in the division, for all the wrong reasons with a summer full of bad news that will likely plague the team into the regular season.

Lastly, the Orlando Magic will stay the course as almost assuredly one of the worst teams in the league, something that will suit them just fine once again.

Here’s what to expect from the Southeast this season.

Last season’s results: 53-29 record, first in the Southeast Division, first in Eastern Conference, lost in conference finals.

2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 49.5 total wins this season and +1,126 odds to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.

Projected starting five: Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo.

Noteworthy arrivals: Nikola Jovic.

Noteworthy departures: Markieff Morris, P.J. Tucker.

Team outlook: After a season that saw them finish as the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed and a trip to the conference finals, you’d think things would be all good on South Beach. However, because of the changed landscape of the Eastern Conference, the Heat’s situation is a little different this season.

For starters, there’s expectation that the Boston Celtics won’t be dragging their feet for the first half of the season, and the drama that plagued Philadelphia 76ers last season should also be behind them. Additionally, the Milwaukee Bucks are primed and loaded, with their Big Three all very much still in their prime.

Those are three teams in the conference that appear better than Miami coming into the season already. To make matters worse, the Heat also look to have an older core than their fellow East rivals. Kyle Lowry is 36 and Jimmy Butler is 33 right now and, while Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are still young – 25 and 22, respectively – The Heat’s best chance to make noise will rely on Lowry and Butler still being at their best.

Miami is, by no means a bad team, but it just might not be as good as it appears to be on paper.

Best-case scenario: The Heat need to find a way to keep Lowry and Butler fresh for a deep playoff run. Both men have competitive mean streaks that play very well in the post-season, but getting there with them in peak condition is the problem. To do so, Herro will have to take another leap and prove he’s worth the four-year, $130-million extension he signed now as a starter, Adebayo will need to stay healthy, key reserves Victor Oladipo and Max Strus will likely need to take on a larger role and rookie Nikola Jovic will likely have to show he belongs.

Worst-case scenario: The Heat, unfortunately, have a few players that are quite prone to injury. Adebayo only played 56 games last season, Butler 57 and Lowry just 63. The injury and COVID protocol bug didn’t end up derailing Miami’s season before, but that was most likely because of situations that other teams around the conference were dealing with. This season there appears to be more stability around the East’s powers, meaning missed time from Miami’s key pieces could end be more costly.

Last season’s results: 43-39 record, second in Southeast Division, ninth in Eastern Conference, lost in first round.

2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 45.5 total wins this season and +3,384 odds to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.

Projected starting five: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Clint Capela.

Noteworthy arrivals: Aaron Holiday, Justin Holiday, Frank Kaminsky, Dejounte Murray.

Noteworthy departures: Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, Lou Williams, Delon Wright.

Team outlook: The Hawks re-tooled in a big way during the off-season, highlighted by its big acquisition of all-star guard Dejounte Murray to pair with Trae Young in its backcourt.

With Murray in the fold, Atlanta has one of the most exciting looking starting fives in the NBA, blessed with lots of athleticism, above-the-rim play, playmaking and shotmaking.

There could be some growing pains with Murray in the fold as, like Young, he’ll need to have the ball in his hands to get his game off. No one knows if this team will even be capable of defending a chair yet, but you have to admire when a team opts to make a bold move in an attempt to take the next step in its path towards trying to win a championship.

Best-case scenario: These high-flying Hawks will run teams out the gym with no good counter to the firepower that Young and Murray can provide in conjunction with the steam engine-like rim runs and lob finishes from John Collins, Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu. If all goes according to plan, Atlanta will push Miami for tops in the division and a top-four seed in the East.

Worst-case scenario: There’s a lot of new that will need to integrated in Atlanta – and not just Murray. Because of this, the Hawks could find themselves a step or two behind the curve and end up in a position like they were last season where they were fighting to just to make the play-in games.

Last season’s results: 43-39 record, third in Southeast Division, 10th in Eastern Conference, eliminated in play-in games.

2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 34.5 total wins this season and +9,660 odds to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.

Projected starting five: LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington, Mason Plumlee.

Noteworthy arrivals: LiAngelo Ball, Steve Clifford, Dennis Smith Jr.

Noteworthy departures: James Borrego, Miles Bridges, Montrezl Harrell, Isaiah Thomas.

Team outlook: The Hornets look like they could be in for a rough season both on and off the floor.

On it, the team opted to fire head coach James Borrego, the only NBA coach star guard LaMelo Ball’s ever had, for former Orlando Magic bench boss Steve Clifford. Clifford can obviously coach, but he’s known as a defence-first guy, and likes to play more conservative, restrictive styles of offence, something that could hamper Ball’s innate skills.

Off the floor, though he’s no longer on the team, Charlotte will be dealing with the fallout of the domestic violence charges levied against Miles Bridges, who is currently a restricted free agent. Bridges allegedly assaulted his wife, Mychelle Johnson, in front of their two children. He was charged with one felony count of injuring a child's parent and two felony counts of child abuse.

This is a case that will be followed with much interest in Charlotte and will likely find its way into the Hornets locker room with reporters looking for reaction from the team as it progresses.

Things aren’t looking too hot in the Queen City.

Best-case scenario: If the Hornets will be going through an adjustment period with a new coach and a new style of play that may or may not click immediately with the personnel on the team, why not take the opportunity this season to try to pair up Ball with another legitimate star? How good would Victor Wembanyama look as a pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop partner with Ball? The Hornets should look to try to make it happen.

Worst-case scenario: As things stand, the Hornets are in NBA purgatory as a team that’s just good enough to compete for the a play-in spot. Unless Ball, who looks like he’ll be starting the season sidelined with an ankle injury, Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington all take astronomical leaps, the team buys into Clifford’s system fully and immediately and the system Clifford presents truly is everything Charlotte’s needed, this is a squad that will be dooming itself as it’ll just be standing still.

Last season’s results: 35-47 record, fourth in Southeast Division, 12th in Eastern Conference, didn’t qualify for the post-season.

2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 35.5 total wins this season and +17,400 odds to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.

Projected starting five: Monte Morris, Bradley Beal, Will Barton, Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis.

Noteworthy arrivals: Will Barton, Taj Gibson, Monte Morris, Delon Wright.

Noteworthy departures: Thomas Bryant, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Raul Neto, Tomas Satoransky, Ish Smith.

Team outlook: In a bit of a stunner, the Wizards were able to lock up all-star scoring machine guard Bradley Beal to a five-year deal as both he and the franchise look to make a push back into the post-season.

To fuel this push, Washington made a pretty significant trade, acquiring solid players Monte Morris and Will Barton from the Denver Nuggets and signing Delon Wright in free agency.

Coming into the season, Washington’s roster doesn’t look all that bad, however, injury and COVID protocols are a concern when it comes to Beal and Kristaps Porzingis. And while the Wizards do appear deeper than before, if those two miss time at the rate they did a season ago, it could be another disappointing year in the U.S. capital.

Best-case scenario: The Wizards have the potential to make a playoff push and given the commitment they made to Beal, that should be their focus this season. With so many new pieces there will likely be growing pains this season for Washington, but getting Beal back on track as a legitimate superstar in the league and a healthy Porzingis should be enough to get Washington over the hump into, at least, the play-in games and, possibly, the playoffs proper.

Worst-case scenario: There’s always the chance things go south for the Wizards and the temptation to tank the season could be there. They must resist. Washington made moves in the off-season that suggested it wanted to try to actually take a step forward and it should look to stay that course for this season at the very least.

Last season’s results: 22-60 record, fifth in Southeast Division, 15th in Eastern Conference, didn’t qualify for the post-season.

2022-23 season betting odds: Over/under 26.5 total wins this season and +34,900 odds to win it all, according to Sports Interaction.

Projected starting five: Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.

Noteworthy arrivals: Paolo Banchero, Caleb Houstan.

Noteworthy departures: Robin Lopez.

Team outlook: Take the projected starting five we have listed for the Magic with a grain of salt because things could be ugly in Orlando to begin the season.
Markelle Fultz reportedly broke his big toe during a pre-season workout and has missed all of training camp and Jalen Suggs suffered a left knee capsule injury and a bone bruise in a pre-season game so it’s unclear when he might be available to return.

It’s not like the Magic are expected, nor even want, to win games, but the injury to Suggs is particularly problematic as he’s a building block for the future of this franchise that needs as many reps as he can get, especially playing alongside 2022 No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero, so that the two can begin creating some on-court chemistry.

Best-case scenario: For the Magic, all they really want is to be able to give their young talent a taste of competition while also remaining near the bottom of the standings to have a shot at Wembanyama come draft time. What this means is allowing players like Banchero, Suggs and Franz Wagner to play big minutes in games that are, hopefully, competitive where these kids are allowed to take and make big shots in big moments. The result will likely still be a loss, but they’ll be losses they can learn from.

Worst-case scenario: The Magic aren’t going to win many games. That’s just a fact. So, with their entry into the Wembanyama sweepstakes all but secured even before they play a single game, the worst thing that could happen to them is an extended injury to Suggs or Banchero. These are two key cogs to Orlando’s future and need as much time playing together as possible so that when the Magic’s time does eventually come, they’ll be ready to help lead them into it.