It’s a season that has been allergic to stability and calm. And just when it appeared that the Toronto Raptors were finally entering a stage when it would only be the games that mattered -- not injuries, not trade rumours, not schematic problems or personnel questions – Nick Nurse chose to gently blow a little air over the embers of a season that has had moments when all it needed was a spark to set it on fire.
Some background: On Thursday, a report in the Toronto Star from long-time Raptors reporter Doug Smith gave heft to rumours that have been circulating with low-level intensity for some weeks, the gist being that Nurse – who has another year remaining on his contract – is looking for a new opportunity and, specifically, with the Houston Rockets. In turn, the Raptors have been connected with former Celtics head coach Ime Udoka, who has ties with Raptors president Masai Ujiri, and was a finalist for the Toronto job that Nurse ended up getting when he was promoted after five years as an assistant coach to Dwane Casey.
It had been bubbling around, and mentioned in passing. “It’s been out there for a while,” said one Eastern Conference executive. But it’s different when it’s printed, it takes on a form that people can reference.
Nurse didn’t reference the report directly before the Raptors tipped off against the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday night but when he was asked a fairly broad question, essentially assessing his team’s season to date and “where his head was at,” he certainly took the lid off things.
“It’s been a difficult season from a number of standpoints,” Nurse told reporters. “… Early on had some pretty serious injuries with some key guys … the trade deadline stuff was as interesting as it gets … I think when this season gets done, we’ll evaluate everything, and even personally I’m gonna take a few weeks to see where I’m at, where my head’s at, to see how the relationship with the organization is and everything. It’s been 10 years for me now. Which is a pretty good run …”
The follow-up question was if he’d “put more thought into, for whatever reason, you might not be back (with Toronto) next year?”
“No, I think I'm concentrated on this job, for sure, and this game," Nurse said. "But I think that 10 years is a good time to sit back and reflect a little bit, right? I think we're going to do that all when the season ends."
That wasn’t all of what Nurse said. He made clear that he's focused on the present and the remainder of the season: “Right now, my head is to get this season as long as possible … this team needs playoff experience … finish out these six [games], see where we land and then give 'em hell in the playoffs … see if we can get in a real series and take it from there … ”
But some of his words played a lot louder than the others, and they weren’t the ones about finishing the season strong.
What to make of it?
Well, first of all, full marks for honesty.
After all, there’s a simple solution – or several of them -- when anyone in the public eye is asked about unsourced reports, rumours or speculation on a delicate topic. You can ignore the question: "I have a game to coach." You can deflect the question: Literally, "No comment." You can deny the merit of the question or the validity of the topic: "That’s ridiculous, and I have no further comment." Or you can attack even the idea of the question, and pledge loyalty: "That’s absurd, I have Raptors blood in my veins. Drake will be the soundtrack at my funeral, and Kyle Lowry will give the eulogy."
You can also just lie. It’s been proven effective.
But doing none of those things and by acknowledging that even though he’s got a year remaining on his contract, he plans to “evaluate,” “reflect” and – coded language alert -- “see how my relationship with the organization is” once the season ends, well, Nurse said a whole lot.
Tea-leaves readers around the NBA will see that clip and read those words and presume the rumours are true and the wheels are in motion.
The people Nurse works for – Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster – will wonder why their head coach is entertaining questions about his future.
The coaches on his staff will wonder about their futures and the players he’s supposed to be leading could be justified in wondering exactly where the head coach’s thoughts are as they scrap for a play-in spot at the start of tough five-game road trip with less than two weeks left in the regular season.
Did any of that matter or come into play as the Raptors were battling the Sixers on Friday night?
Probably not. The Sixers were 27-11 at home before Nurse said anything and the Raptors were 12-24 on the road. Toronto was down 20 at halftime, cut the lead to two late in the fourth quarter before eventually falling 117-110 for its fifth straight road loss.
But your head coach entertaining speculation about his future doesn’t happen very often.
What I can add at this point is that Nurse claiming to not be clear on the status of his relationship with the organization is curious, to say the least. He is in regular conversations with Webster and Ujiri, who – apart from scouting trips leading into the NCAA tournament – have been regular figures at practice and on the road this season. Both of the Raptors' top basketball executives were with the team in Philadelphia.
This is not a situation where diplomatic relations have been frozen and the two sides aren’t communicating. Nurse's agent and Ujiri are on good terms and have a long-standing relationship. It’s unlikely there are too may unknowns.
The comment felt like something you would say if you were trying to buy time, to be honest.
That said, according to sources, this isn’t a slow-motion negotiation for a contract extension. Coaches claiming they have no authority if they go into a season without any future term on their contract – the so-called "lame duck" – is the oldest tactic in the book.
But those rules probably don’t apply here. Nurse knows that Ujiri and Webster operate in good faith. After he led the Raptors to a title in 2019 and won coach of the year in 2019-20, Nurse was given a three-year extension on top of his original three year deal and his pay bumped up to $8 million per season, making him one of the highest-paid coaches in the league.
Those in position to know are adamant that trying to get assurances on an extension isn’t the play here.
On the other side of the equation, there has been no communication about a role in Toronto with Udoka.
Udoka was suspended and then replaced by Joe Mazzulla in Boston before the season after having a relationship with a team employee.
Whenever he’s conducted or been part of coaching searches, Ujiri has always surveyed a large group of candidates.
So what is going on here?
It is likely exactly as it seems: Nurse is – or very soon will be – assessing a very challenging season in which he worked with a roster that lacked a quality NBA bench. It was made more challenging as all five Raptors starters were featured prominently in trade rumours.
Even with the trade deadline past and the Raptors surprisingly buyers instead of sellers, the team's path to being more competitive a year from now isn’t exactly crystal clear.
Those with insight into Nurse’s thinking say he wants to win and is open to other opportunities with upside, if the Raptors can’t lay out a clear path forward. For good reason, he doesn’t want to spend another season with so much uncertainty around the roster and the direction of the team, and he’s a well-regarded coach who would likely have options if it was known he was available.
He has ties to the Rockets organization – it’s where he worked as a G League head coach – they have a load of young prospects and future draft picks and just might have French phenom Victor Wembanyama on the roster at training camp next season. It’s a lot easier to look like a really good head coach when you have a generational talent to draw up plays for.
Does any of this catch the Raptors completely off guard? Are they heartbroken?
Not entirely, if at all. No one is coming out and making statements or pronouncements, but there have been concerns raised at various points in the season, ranging from the most basic – four seasons is a long time for any head coach to keep his message fresh – to more tangible issues, such as questioning whether Nurse’s determination to play a high-risk, high-reward style of defence is really the best way to play.
Yes, Toronto ranks at the top of the league in steals and offensive rebounds and takes care of the ball better than any team in the NBA – all core tenets of Nurse's philosophy. But is it worth it if the cost is effectively allowing a layup line for opponents if they beat the pressure? Is it a style that wears players down or that opponents eventually adjust to? Toronto has ranked at the bottom of the league in opponents’ effective field-goal percentage all season.
That Nurse has leaned so heavily on his starters the past two seasons – no one plays them more – is another issue and there’s some frustration that young players’ opportunities to develop has been stymied. Dalano Banton's pathway to playing time has disappeared. Malachi Flynn is a rumour and Jeff Dowtin Jr. has gone from not good enough to play to essential in the matter of weeks.
Of course, the head coach might say, "They’re not good enough" and he might be right, but no one knows for sure, and that’s a problem.
And around and around it goes.
Nurse’s future was going to be an off-season issue, that much was almost a certainty, regardless of how the Raptors finished the regular season, or what they do in the play-in tournament or beyond.
But that Nurse was willing to entertain the subject at such a critical moment suggests that the issues are a lot closer to surface than most realized.
The subject is now unavoidably present from here on in.
