One off-season priority for each core member of the Raptors

The 2020-21 season didn’t go as planned for the Toronto Raptors.

The team faltered right out of the gate, beginning the season 2-8, and then, after climbing back to .500 in late-February, they were hit with health and safety protocols that sidelined seven coaches and five players.

The team never recovered. Instead, the Raptors shifted their focus to development, with an eye towards the future. Their young players were put in bigger roles and given freedom to do more with the ball in their hands than they would have had the team been competitive.

The downside to focusing on development is that the Raptors stumbled to a 27-45 record, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2013. But the silver lining to the season is that almost every Raptor got demonstrably better from the start of the season until now. And with the freedom to do more and make more mistakes, the core members of the Raptors were put in better positions to accurately gauge what exactly they need to work on to take their games to the next level. After all, it’s a lot easier to learn about your strengths and weaknesses on a developing team than it is playing a defined role on a contender.

So what do the Raptors’ core players need to work on? How can they take a step forward individually and as a team? Here is one off-season priority for each core member of the Raptors.

(As a quick aside, I am using the term “core” loosely here. The players I am focusing on figure to be in the rotation next season, with exceptions to players who are too developed to add something to their games – Kyle Lowry – or too raw to focus in on only one skill – like Jalen Harris, Freddie Gillespie and Paul Watson Jr. Off-season developments also tend to be things that players can work on in an empty gym).

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Pascal Siakam: Finishing

Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam (43) goes to the basket against New York Knicks guard Elfrid Payton (6). (Noah K. Murray/AP)

It’s easy to suggest that Siakam’s biggest off-season priority should be ball-handling, as a tighter handle would enable him to do even more with the ball in his hands, getting to even more spots on the court to score or create from. But along with ball-handling being somewhat of a cop-out answer given that almost every non-guard in the NBA would be wise to improve it, the reality is that Siakam already gets to his spots comfortably enough, and is already one of the more versatile offensive players in the league.

Siakam isn’t a perfect ball-handler by any means, but he has drastically improved his handle since entering the league. Outside of being uncomfortable driving with his left hand, Siakam does get where he wants consistently and on-balance. Plus, he has cleaned up his turnovers despite garnering more of the defence’s attention than ever, with a career-low 10.4 turnover percentage on a career-high 19.4 assist percentage this season.

Siakam’s season is proof that improved ball-handling does not beget success in and of itself: It helps players put themselves in better positions to succeed, whether that means getting to the rim or into an elbow jumper, but the player still has to finish. Siakam struggled to do just that, which is why his No. 1 off-season priority should be improving his finishing ability.

Siakam’s 54.7 true-shooting percentage was significantly below league average and his worst since his rookie campaign. He shot just 63 per cent at the rim this season and 41 per cent on mid-range attempts, despite generating some really good looks for himself in those areas. Ultimately, he struggled to finish with speed and through contact, converting on the lowest percentage of his and-one opportunities since his rookie season at 24.5 per cent.

Watching Siakam, it was clear that he consistently got to where he wanted — whether it was the rim for a layup, the mid-range for a balanced floater, or the pull-up jumper — but he blew the finish. Sure, Siakam could work on his ball-handling and get to even more spots on the court, but it would be in his best interest to first get comfortable finishing from the spots that he already gets to, making him a more efficient scorer and more dependable late-game option.

OG Anunoby: Balance

Toronto Raptors forward OG Anunoby (3) drives to the basket against New York Knicks guard RJ Barrett (9). (Noah K. Murray/AP)

Anunoby had an extremely efficient season scoring the ball, boasting a career-best 60.5 true-shooting
percentage on a career-high 19.3 usage rate. That usage spiked after the Norman Powell trade and, barring a significant off-season addition, the Raptors are likely going to ask even more of Anunoby next season. He’s no longer simply a spot-up option in the Raptors offence, and the best way to take his on-ball creation to the next level is by leveraging his strength by improving his balance.

Anunoby’s best and most consistent offence comes when he uses his overwhelming strength to get to his spots. He isn’t the quickest player or one with the best dribble package, but when he gets into his defender’s chest and stays on balance, he can generate a clean look for himself anywhere on the court.

Unfortunately for Anunoby, he too often spins out of control when putting the ball on the floor or after making contact, losing his balance and speeding himself up, which results in tough shots and turnovers, ending the season with a 12.7 turnover percentage.

In order to grow as both a scorer and a playmaker, Anunoby needs to get to his spots on balance, where he can then force the defence to make a tough decision. Improved balance should also help him play at his own pace instead of getting sped up like he too often tends to.

As overused as this comparison is, no one is better at using his strength while staying on balance than Kawhi Leonard, and that’s the player Anunoby should model his game around. Leonard is so efficient at the rim and in the mid-range because he creates space with his strength and stays on balance for easy looks. Anunoby is just as strong, and working on his balance will allow him to not only get to his spots more consistently, but finish or assist teammates from there, too.

Fred VanVleet: Mid-range scoring

Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet (23) drives as Detroit Pistons centre Mason Plumlee (24) defends. (Carlos Osorio/AP)

VanVleet took dramatic steps forward in what was his best all-around season as a pro. The Raptors gave him the ball and allowed him to be the point guard more often than not, with his usage percentage (25.8) and touches per game (81.3) both hitting career-highs.

VanVleet proved a lot of people wrong with his playmaking, looking like a legitimate point guard who dished out 6.3 assists per game with a 26.5 assist percentage on a career-low 8.4 turnover percentage. In fact, VanVleet had the lowest turnover percentage in the NBA of all players to average at least five assists per game this season, ahead of Leonard and DeMar DeRozan.

But VanVleet struggled to score efficiently, which has been a constant throughout his career. He shot just 38.9 per cent from the field, including 41.6 per cent from two-point range. We know that VanVleet is an elite three-point shooter and an improved playmaker, but he struggles when he gets inside of the arc and defences take away the rim, passing out a league-leading 60.4 per cent of his drives.

The most realistic answer is for VanVleet to expand his mid-range scoring, particularly by shooting a floater. That’s because, given his lack of burst and height, VanVleet might never become an effective finisher at the rim, where he has never shot above 52 per cent. But VanVleet has the touch to finish from anywhere on the court, and while at-rim attempts often get deterred by shot blockers, he usually has space to attack the middle of the floor and shoot an uncontested floater over dropping big men.

This season, VanVleet shot 34 per cent from the mid-range, tied for a career-high, and he started
taking more floaters as the season went along. He spoke about the floater helping him avoid contact at the rim and injuries to his body, and the hope now is he realizes that it’s an important tool to have.

Malachi Flynn: Off-ball effectiveness

Toronto Raptors guard Malachi Flynn, front right, drives the lane as Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, front left, and forward Michael Porter Jr. defend. (David Zalubowski/AP)

While Flynn will likely be the point guard running the second unit next season, the Raptors play an egalitarian offence that necessitates he play off the ball as well as on it. Flynn didn’t have to do that very often in college, and it showed in his first season with the Raptors.

Flynn was too often caught standing to the side, hands on his knees, rather than actively re-locating himself around the perimeter for catch-and-shoot opportunities, like we see from VanVleet. When he did receive the ball with space to shoot, he wasn’t in a great position and didn’t have his feet and hands set to rise up and shoot in a consistent manner, causing him to shoot just 34.6 per cent on catch-and-shoot threes this season, well below league average. His lack of off-ball preparedness also caused him to turn a ton of catch-and-shoot opportunities into pull-up threes due to the need to take a rhythm dribble, where he shot 31 per cent.

Aside from better understanding his teammates’ tendencies and being more active and prepared off the ball, Flynn should strengthen his core and improve his conditioning in order to better maintain form and repeatability in catch-and-shoot scenarios. Given the amount of other playmakers on the Raptors’ roster and the offensive system they run, Flynn needs to be a more effective off-ball player in order to maximize his potential on the offensive end.

Chris Boucher: Closeouts

Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (2) puts up a shot in front of Toronto Raptors forward Chris Boucher (25). (Chris O’Meara/AP)

Boucher is tricky to evaluate because he played most of his minutes at centre this season before the Raptors added Khem Birch and Gillespie late. Then, when he was set to shift to his natural position at the power forward, he got injured, so we don’t have a real sample size of him playing there.

But Boucher has already talked about needing to improve his defensive IQ, and that’s going to be especially important if he is going to play more on the perimeter next season. Boucher mentioned not needing to jump every time he contests a shot, which will help him stay out of foul trouble and be in a better position to rebound after contesting shots. But if Boucher is going to play more on the perimeter as a power forward next season he should look to improve his closeouts.

It’s a relatively small thing, but Boucher often closes out on shooters in an uncontrolled fashion. His aggression allowed him to block the most three-pointers in the league this season (25), but he too often fouled three-point shooters or simply flew by them as they took a rhythm dribble and set up their shot. Boucher is capable of closing out in control, chopping his feet and, most importantly, staying in front of his man.

Sometimes the Raptors’ defence calls for closeouts to be overly aggressive, but sometimes it’s clear that Boucher is just getting ahead of himself, and it would be in his and the team’s best interest to see him consistently stay in front of his man on the perimeter. Not only will that allow the defence to stay set and avoid a rotation, but it also allows Boucher to be in a better position to help protect the basket, which is his best defensive skill.

Gary Trent Jr.: Ambidextrous finishing

Toronto Raptors guard Gary Trent Jr. (33) goes to the basket in front of Oklahoma City Thunder forward Josh Hall (15). (Sue Ogrocki/AP)

Simply put, Trent is averse to finishing with his left hand, and it gets him into trouble when it comes to scoring around the rim, where he shot just 54 per cent as a Raptor this season.

More importantly, the apparent uneasiness Trent has shown finishing with his left hand is one of the reasons that he has never had higher than 16 per cent of his shots come at the rim in his career, only attacking when he has an avenue to finish with his right hand.

Assuming he’s back next season, Trent needs to become a more ambidextrous finisher, getting to the rim and finishing there more often. As someone who is efficient from the three-point line and the mid-range, the at-rim finishing is what’s holding Trent back from being a true three-level threat like Powell was with Toronto.

Khem Birch: Three-point shooting

Toronto Raptors center Khem Birch (24) and Utah Jazz forward Royce O’Neale (23) reach for a rebound. (Rick Bowmer/AP)

Birch shot a total of two three-pointers in his first three seasons in the NBA. In 2020-21, however, he shot 52 of them, including 31 in his 19 games with the Raptors, where he shot 29.0 per cent.

Working under the assumption that he returns with the team next season, Birch should continue to work on his three-point shot. Having a centre who can space the floor out to the three-point line gives the Raptors additional wrinkles to their offence, including a pick-and-pop threat, and more importantly, it opens up the lane for his teammates to attack the rim.

The Raptors had an offensive rating of 124.5 in the 92 minutes Birch shared the floor with Lowry, VanVleet, Anunoby, and Siakam — 7.2 points per 100 possessions better than the Brooklyn Nets’ No. 1 offence in the league this season — and that’s without defences respecting Birch’s outside shot. Birch did a great job setting screens and rolling into open space rather than into other Raptors’ driving lanes, but there’s only so much you can do to space the floor without a reliable outside shot, especially in the playoffs when opposing defences will sag off non-shooters dramatically to protect the paint.

The simple reality of the modern NBA is the more spacing you have, the better you’ll likely be because of it. Birch has shown a willingness to shoot the three, and by making a career-high 54 per cent of his mid-range shots in Toronto this season, he showed solid touch, too. Birch wasn’t given the freedom to shoot in Orlando, which likely stunted his growth in that area, but there’s no telling how good he can be if he makes shooting an off-season priority and comes back guns blazing.

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