Play-In Preview: Injuries create tighter matchups

The two opposite sides of the Play-In Tournament have provided an interesting mirror image so far.

In the East, a tight and dogged matchup between the Heat and 76ers sent the playoff-primed Miami squad tumbling down to a similar spot they were in last year. Meanwhile, in the 9-10 game, the Bulls steamrolled the Hawks behind a monstrous effort from Coby White.

Similarly, out West, the Lakers downed the Pelicans in a hard-fought duel that was possibly decided by a freak injury to Zion Williamson, sending New Orleans to a win-or-go-home matchup against the Sacramento Kings. Like the Bulls, the Kings soundly demolished the Warriors, sending that team spiralling into an off-season rampant with questions.

Awaiting the winners of the two final play-in games are the formidable No. 1 seed Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder. Matchups against these conference winners are a brutal reward for whatever team advances past this final elimination game, however, those extra playoff games are worth fighting for regardless. 

The final round of the Play-In Tournament tips off on Friday night with the Heat vs. the Bulls at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT on Sportsnet ONE and Sportsnet+. That is followed by the Pelicans vs. the Kings at 9:30 p.m. ET/ 6:30 p.m. PT on Sportsnet ONE and Sportsnet+. Until then, here’s a preview of these last two all-or-nothing outings:

Eastern Conference: (8) Miami Heat vs. (9) Chicago Bulls @ 7 p.m. ET.

Season series: Tied 2-2

• Nov. 18, 2023: Bulls won 102-97
• Nov. 20, 2023: Heat won 118-100
• Dec. 14, 2023: Bulls won 124-116
• Dec. 16, 2023: Heat won 118-116

Betting line: Heat -1.5 | Bulls +1.5 O/U: 205.5 (Odds provided by Sports Interaction) 

PULSE ON HEAT (46-36)

It almost couldn’t have gone worse for the Heat in their first play-in game against the Philadelphia 76ers. Not only did they give up a double-digit lead in the game, but they lost star Jimmy Butler to an injury. Should the Heat get past this next test, Butler is reportedly set to miss multiple weeks with an MCL injury, throwing Miami's playoff hopes into disarray as they try to run the gauntlet and repeat as Eastern Conference champions.

With Butler playing hobbled against Philly, the Heat struggled to piece it together offensively, as microwave scorer Tyler Herro shot an inefficient 9-for-27 from the field and 4-for-14 from three. Big man Bam Adebayo was left on an island against Joel Embiid, finishing with only 10 points on nine field goal attempts.

Much of the scoring load will fall on their shoulders against the Bulls, as the status of Duncan Robinson (back) and Terry Rozier (neck) are still up in the air. Herro and Adebayo will need to rid themselves of their playoff struggles if they want to make the big dance, as both guys have seen their averages go down once the lights get brighter.

PULSE ON BULLS (39-43)

The Bulls were also hit with the injury bug in Wednesday’s play-in game against the Atlanta Hawks, as defensive stalwart Alex Caruso suffered an ankle injury. However, in the win over the Hawks, the Bulls had no trouble getting their offence going, as Coby White led the way with 42 points on 15-for-21 shooting, finishing with an otherworldly 178 offensive rating in the beatdown. 

Chicago found themselves in this same spot last year after downing the Raptors in the 9-10 play-in game. They would go on to lose to the Heat 102-91 as Butler carved up Zach LaVine to the tune of 31 points and 13 in the fourth quarter. The Heat won’t have that luxury this time around and the Bulls might be in a better spot without LaVine, as the wing struggled in that game, going 6-for-21 from the field for 15 points. 

The emergence of White and Ayo Dosunmu have given the Bulls more hope this season and possibly a duo to build around for the years to come. They’ll first have to enact revenge on Miami and send one of the scariest playoff teams packing.

X-FACTOR

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Miami Heat): Sliding into Butler’s spot will likely be rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr., who was one of the bright spots in the loss to the Sixers by scoring an efficient 15 points on 6-for-11 shooting. The former UCLA forward has shown no trouble slotting in for Butler in the regular season, upping his scoring from 15.1 to 10.7 points on similar efficiency when he gets the call-up to the starting five. 

DeMar DeRozan (Chicago Bulls): Suddenly the skies are clear for DeRozan, as the six-time all-star will no longer have to deal with the potential 1-on-1 matchup against Butler. In last year’s play-in game against the Heat, DeRozan led the Bulls with 26 points and nine assists, and with an easier matchup in front of him, the sneakily ageless wing should vie for the chance to secure his second playoff run since landing in Chicago.

KEY TO VICTORY

The Miami Heat have built their brand of basketball on hard-nosed defence and winning dogfights. Without Butler, that of course becomes harder, however, guys like Jaquez, Delon Wright, Haywood Highsmith and, of course, Adebayo, will still provide that defensive intensity and grit. Their zone defence confounded the 76ers for most of their first play-in game, and had Nic Batum not found the hot hand out of nowhere, the Heat would’ve likely secured their playoff berth. The Bulls will need to find similar contributions throughout their lineup and will hope that Nikola Vucevic, who has struggled this year from 3-point range, can find his touch from long range to break the Heat’s zone.

Western Conference: (7) New Orleans Pelicans vs. (9) Sacramento Kings @ 9:30 p.m. ET.

Season series: Pelicans won 4-0.

• Nov. 20, 2023: Pelicans won 129-93
• Nov. 22, 2023: Pelicans won 117-112
• Dec. 4, 2023: Pelicans won 127-117
• Jan. 7, 2023: Pelicans won 133-100

Betting line: Pelicans +1.5 | Kings -1.5. Over/Under: 210.5 (Odds provided by Sports Interaction) 

PULSE ON PELICANS (49-33)

If you’re looking at the betting line and wondering how the Pelicans have won all four meetings with the Kings this season (they’ve won five straight going back to last season), are playing on their home court, and are still underdogs for this Play-In contest, look no further than the Zion Williamson effect.

After posting a massive line of 40 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, a steal, and a block, Zion Williamson was forced to leave the previous Play-In game against the Lakers with a left hamstring strain. He will miss Friday’s game against Sacramento (and at least the next two weeks if the Pelicans advance) and that is a massive blow for New Orleans.

This only adds to the pressure on Brandon Ingram, who just returned from a left knee bone contusion that saw him miss 12 games. Ingram was so rusty and limited in the previous game that he played just 25 minutes and was benched for the final 7:38. CJ McCollum will also have to raise his level from where he was at against the Lakers when he scored just nine points on 4-of-15 shooting including 1-of-9 from three. He averaged 20 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.6 assists during the regular season while shooting 42.9 per cent from deep.

PULSE ON KINGS (46-36)

Sacramento was thoroughly impressive in its win over the Warriors and while their star tandem of Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox did what they needed to, standout performances from Keegan Murray (32 points, nine rebounds, 8-of-13 from three) and Keon Ellis (15 points, four rebounds, five assists, three steals, three blocks) left a dynastic opponent scratching its collective heads in search of a solution that never came.

If the Kings can get that type of performance in New Orleans against a Pelicans team without Williamson, it's hard to envision a scenario in which they don't advance to the playoffs. Plenty is made of the Kings’ offence but it was the stifling defence of Ellis on Steph Curry and even matching up Fox with Draymond Green that led the Dubs to score their lowest point total since March 3 against the Celtics in Boston.

While Sacramento hasn’t beaten New Orleans in five straight contests, the Kings can take confidence in having a better record on the road (22-19) than the Pelicans do at home (21-19).

X-FACTORS

Trey Murphy (Pelicans): Murphy has averaged 16.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.1 steals as a starter this season and it’s quite likely he slots in to replace Williamson. Since the all-star break, he had 12 games with at least four 3-pointers made including 10 made threes against Toronto. Considering the gaping hole Williamson’s absence will leave in the scoring department, New Orleans desperately needs one of those unconscious nights from Murphy.

Keon Ellis (Kings): After doing about as good a job as one can hope to match up against Curry, it’s quite likely Ellis gets the McCollum matchup this time around. If he can continue to be a pest and keep McCollum down, half of Sacramento’s battle on the defensive end is won.

KEY TO VICTORY

Watch out for the battle of Lithuanian bigs as Jonas Valanciunas goes up against Domantas Sabonis. They’ve known each other for a long time and know each other’s games inside out. It’s about as physical a matchup as you’ll see in the league though neither is considered a defensive stalwart. The Pelicans need to win this matchup.

Sacramento was 20th in three-point percentage after the trade deadline while New Orleans was third. Williamson’s absence will take away some of those looks he created for Pelicans' shooters, but on the other side the Kings are without Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. Sacramento shot 18-for-39 (46.2 per cent) from three against Golden State and will need to find a way to replicate that outlier performance.