Raptors' Barnes caps regular season showing loads of promise, but questions linger

Toronto -- When the book is closed on the 2022-23 season the only chapter that will matter next year or years from now is the one devoted to Scottie Barnes.

There won’t be a book, of course: Too sad.

And besides, no point is wasting words on a season that can be summed up in three: not good enough.

But whether the Raptors ultimately decide that this season – which wrapped up with a 121-101 walkthrough win over the Milwaukee Bucks in a game where most of the essential players on each team didn’t play – was an aberration and the team the upward trajectory they believed they were on a year ago or that they of sweeping changes, the constant will remain Barnes.

It won’t matter if the 41-41 Raptors defy expectations and emerge from the play-in tournament – they host 10^th-place Chicago on Wednesday – and acquit themselves well in the playoffs or if a disappointing season ends with a whimper this week, how Barnes progresses from now until next October will matter more.

The franchise’s fortunes in the short, medium, and long term remain as tied to the progress of the 21-year-old taken fourth overall in 2021 who was wrapping up the rookie-of-the-year award this time a season ago that they did on the night he was drafted.

So how’s that going anyway?

Well, after a rough start, the consensus is, pretty good, which is itself maybe a disappointment. The hope was that Barnes would be that rarest of creatures: someone who hits the NBA running and quickly breaks into a sprint.

It doesn’t quite work that way. Rarely the expectations even the best rookies create for themselves get surpassed in year two. Typically, there’s more scrutiny and the flaws become more apparent.

Barnes remains an enticing talent, but his full form remains more of an outline for now.

“I’m not super different [that last year],” he said after logging 22 minutes – the most of any Raptors starter – and recording eight points and five assists against the Bucks. “I do the same things, just a little bit better.”

A mostly accurate self-assessment, and mostly how things unfold for second year players, even those with ceilings as high as Barnes could be if he can iron out some of the wrinkles in his game.

“I think there’s certainly some historical data that would back that up,” Raptors head coach Nick Nurse said. “The biggest thing is [Barnes] is still really, really young. We like a lot of things about him, a lot about his approach. He’s competitive. He’s big. He’s strong. He loves to play. Those skills and things, I think, are what he has to continue to work on and improve. You know how it is: If you’re gonna be an All-Star or a great player in this league, you’ve got to score.”

On the season Barnes averaged 15.4 points a game with a True Shooting percentage of 52.5 per cent (league average is 58.1 per cent) compared with the 15.6 points a game he averaged as a rookie on a True Shooting of 55.2.

The most obvious area of improvement was his playmaking. His assists jumped from 4.9 per game took a jump with his assists and assist percentage both increasing from 3.5 to 4.8 4.9 a game and his assist percentage from 14.7 to 19.4 without a meaningful change in usage or turnovers. Impressive stuff.

“Just being in those playmaking spots a little bit more, being able to have the ball at the top of the key and run offence a little more,” he said.

Barnes' season ended on an uptick too. That he was able to improve after a concerning start to the season when Barnes’ level of engagement didn’t seem to be what was expected for him and he seemed visibly frustrated at times was a huge relief for everyone involved, and part of growth.

“Almost all young players go through a few more swings of up-and-down moments,” said Nurse. “… I think he’s handled it pretty well. He’s bounced back at times when things aren’t going his way, as have a number of our guys. That’s the main thing: When you’re in a little bit of a valley, is that you climb your way out and get back on an upswing.”

But is Barnes the no-doubt franchise cornerstone and multi-time all-star that a lot of people – and I was no different – were predicting as his ceiling at the end of last season?

That’s not as clear after year two as might have been expected. The ceiling remains as high as ever, but the certainty of him reaching it is still being defined. 

On the plus side Barnes’ feel for the game is exceptional. He makes plays defensively and offensively that aren’t a product of drills or film. He sees things, reacts, and creates moments of magic that a lot of NBA players can go their entire careers without pulling off. And for a high-profile young player, his unselfishness is notable. He’s a willing connector, happy to make the pass that leads to the pass that creates the assist or give up a good chance to score for himself when his teammate has a great chance. It’s a refreshing quality.

“Pretty unusual,” Nurse said.

But even exceptional feel, size and athleticism has limits. Barnes on-ball defence remains a work-in-progress. He’s yet to master the balance between trying to pressure smaller, quicker, players and using his size and strength to contain them. He’s too easy to beat off the dribble.

But it’s some of his offensive skills that need be beefed up more urgently. His ability to cleanly beat his man off the dribble – a crucial demarcation point for players who can lift an offence – still needs a lot of work. There are too many possessions where Barnes takes a few aimless dribbles with fakes that convince no one, leaving him to either take a contested two-point jumpers or get off the ball entirely. On Sunday he ended up isolated on the wing against the Bucks’ – and yes, former Raptor – Goran Dragic and the 36-year-old Slovenian point guard easily slid right to cut off the baseline and force Barnes into an off-balance 15-footer than never had a chance.

But perhaps the crucial swing skill for Barnes is the same one that was a question mark when he was drafted: will his shooting improve to the point it can complement the way he can overwhelm individual defenders when he does get to the paint or how unstoppable he can be when he gets the ball on the move heading to the basket.

“I feel like, in anybody’s game, you make shots, more jump shots, it opens up everything,” said Barnes. “Now they have to watch the jump shot and you can free, easy baskets in open lanes.”

After two seasons Nurse remains optimistic.

“It’s still a work in progress. He’s never really been a great scorer in his short college career,” said Nurse. “What he accomplished last year scoring as much as he did was probably one of our biggest questions going into the season. Continuing to progress on that is certainly the goal.

“His shooting mechanics and all those things are coming. There are some days he looks really good out there. That is just some new territory for guys who aren’t used to shooting it. Not only does it take a lot of mechanical skill work and it becomes part of a mindset. We talk about stages of becoming a viable three-point shooter. I think he’s making progress up those stages, yeah.”

That’s a charitable interpretation. Barnes shot worse this year than he did last from every distance except the three-point line but improving from 28.4 per cent as a rookie to 30.1 per cent in his second season means only he still has a long way to go.

The Raptors have found other ways to take advantage of Barnes wide-ranging abilities. He’s been used as both and screener and ball-handler in the pick-and-roll and can be dangerous in each instance, either as finisher or playmaker on the roll or getting some momentum to paint with the benefit of a screen.

He has also shown the ability to punish smaller defenders – and even bigger defenders – when he posts up as his huge hands, long arms and broad shoulder enable him to gain some separation in tight spaces. His strength allows him to gain good position and finish through contact. But his productivity wasn’t significantly better – he averaged 0.89 points per shot on post-ups this year compared with 0.92 points per shot on post ups last year.

In isolation generally the numbers support the eye-test – Barnes didn’t make the progress that might have been hoped as he averaged 0.86 points per possession last season on 42.7 per cent shooting and 0.81 points per possession on 40.9 per cent shooting this season.

“I think, as always, just to round out your offence, in general you’ve got to have some spacing so being able to knock down – they can’t disrespect you from three or they can’t plug gaps off some of your other guys, you gotta make ‘em pay.”

With his second season in the books the book on Barnes remains roughly the same as it did when it started: A very good player, with a loads of promise, but needing to round out his game to reach it.