During Saturday’s game against the New York Knicks the Toronto Raptors kept at least two starters on the floor at all times, grouping OG Anunoby with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet with Pascal Siakam in the first half, and then changing the pairings in the second half by swapping point guards.
Then, in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ game on Monday, the Raptors ran out an all-bench unit in the first half and then kept either Lowry or VanVleet on with the bench unit in the second.
And against the Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday, the Raptors tried a little bit of everything, mixing up rotations due in part to Anunoby being in foul trouble.
The point being to all of this: 62 games into the 2020-21 NBA season, the Raptors are still looking for an optimal rotation.
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Unlike in previous years, when the Raptors have relied on Lowry to effectively prop up bench units as the sole starter, the Raptors’ bench has been a mess this season, and as a result, they rarely play zero or one starter. Instead, head coach Nick Nurse has relied on two-starter lineups 19.6 per cent of the time this season, ninth most frequently in the league, for the most part pairing Lowry-Anunoby and VanVleet-Siakam.
Those two-starter lineups have a relatively good net rating of plus-4.7 per 100 possessions, according to PBP stats, but VanVleet-Siakam has been the far better pair, which is unsurprising given that they are the two highest usage Raptors and also the two biggest drivers of success for the team this season, outscoring opponents by plus-3.24 points per 100 possessions in 303 minutes with Lowry and Anunoby off the floor. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, the Lowry-Anunoby pairing has never taken off, being outscored by minus-7.96 points per 100 possessions in 127 minutes without the other two.
Yet the team has problems outside of its bench, too. The Raptors struggle to create efficient offence in the half-court, where they too often settle for jump shots and don’t finish well at the rim. Those issues have been exacerbated since the Norman Powell trade, as the Raptors have become increasingly reliant on jump-shooting – including a significant bump to their mid-range frequency with the likes of Malachi Flynn and Gary Trent Jr. playing more – leading to a lot of high-variance games in which the Raptors only win if they shoot well from three.
The Raptors need to optimize their rotations and create more efficient shots in the half-court, which is why they should try grouping VanVleet with Anunoby (and Lowry with Siakam), allowing the two young stars to run their own bench unit.
Unlike their co-star Siakam, who has shown an ability to create efficient offence without much screen help over the past two seasons, VanVleet and Anunoby might need each other to maximize their potentials. And that’s okay, because VanVleet and Anunoby are perfectly suited to help each other do what they do best, and their versatility could unlock some actions that put them and their teammates in better positions to succeed, potentially solving some of the Raptors’ most fundamental offensive issues.
In 120 minutes this season without Lowry or Siakam on the floor this season, VanVleet and Anunoby have an offensive rating of 111.11, which would rank near the middle of the league, but because they rarely play together, there is plenty of chemistry to build upon and potential to tap into.
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It’s Anunoby’s versatility, in particular, that opens up a number of interesting options for the Raptors. Anunoby is such a unique player because, at six-foot-eight, 232 pounds with a seven-foot-three wingspan, he can do a little bit of everything. On top of being the most versatile defender in the league, Anunoby has the offensive skill sets of both a wing and a big man.
The Raptors have appeared to have developed him with that flexibility in mind, shying away from putting him in a box as a 3-and-D player or a rim-running big, instead allowing him to get reps in almost every single play type. And while the majority of his offence comes via spot-ups, where he is most effective, at least six per cent of his offence
comes via transition, isolation, post-ups, cuts, and as a ball-handler in the pick-and-roll.
In the span of one game he will go from looking like a 3-and-D wing in the mold of a Mikal Bridges to a strong downhill threat like Zion Williamson to a screen-setting, rim-running big like Bam Adebayo. He can truly do a little bit of everything on the offensive end, and has seen his true shooting hold steady even as his usage has increased over the last three seasons, learning how to better use his strength and mobility as he grows more comfortable putting the ball on the floor.
VanVleet is similarly versatile in that he can play either on-ball or off of it. This season, the Raptors have let VanVleet run the offence much more, with his touches and time per touch going up while Kyle Lowry’s have gone down, making VanVleet the de facto point guard. But VanVleet is still most effective in an off-ball role, setting screens and also maneuvering around them in order to get open three-point looks like JJ Redick or Duncan Robinson, which is part of the reason the Raptors have been so much better with both point guards on the floor than with just one.
So, though it remains important that VanVleet continues to get point guard reps and grows as a playmaker – especially in the event that Lowry leaves and the Raptors don’t replace him in the off-season – the Raptors need to put him in positions to utilize his most valuable skill: Shooting.
Anytime you have a lethal movement shooter who has hit 41.6 per cent of his catch-and-shoot threes over the past three seasons and a bruising forward with the power and athleticism to move bodies out of his way towards the rim – and especially when each of those players can set effective screens for one another – it’s natural to let them build chemistry together in the two-man game – think about Robinson-Adebayo or Redick-Williamson.
But what makes a two-man game especially lethal is when each member of it can effectively attack a mismatch, making it harder for defences to switch the action or else they risk putting a big on a guard or a guard on a big. After all, not many teams have a mobile forward like Anunoby who can switch onto a guard without issue. VanVleet and Anunoby can both exploit mismatches, with VanVleet’s ability to take bigs off the dribble in isolation situations and Anunoby’s ability to post-up smaller guards.
One play that would give Anunoby a bigger role in the offence and free up VanVleet to play more off-ball is a dribble hand-off between Anunoby and VanVleet near the top of the arc, a type of play Anunoby is involved in only four per cent of the time despite being a smart and powerful screener. If VanVleet’s defender overplays the hand-off, VanVleet can simply turn around and cut to the basket, giving him an open lane to the rim. And if Anunoby’s defender overplays it, Anunoby can turn the corner and get to the rim himself. Additonally, the better passer Anunoby develops into, the more options he will have, eventually being able to hit teammates cutting or spotting up when the defence over-helps.
But Anunoby can be more than a big man who sets screens, hands off the ball, and occasionally turns the corner. He is so versatile that in the same game he can go from playing like a big to a wing. The Raptors have started to give Anunoby more reps as a pick-and-roll ball-handler recently, usually receiving screens from a big man to get some space for the pull-up jumper. But those plays fail to take advantage of his overwhelming strength, and Anunoby settling for a mid-range pull-up is a win for the defence, especially because he’s shooting 70 per cent at the rim compared to just 37 per cent from the mid-range this season.
Instead, the Raptors could run an inverted pick-and-roll with VanVleet setting a backscreen for Anunoby, giving him some downhill momentum to get to the basket and either finish there or, if the defence over-helps, swing the ball out to open teammates. This is a play Redick and Lonzo Ball run for Williamson, and while Anunoby is not nearly as athletic as Williamson, he has some of the same strength and downhill burst, and has been one of the few historically good finishers at the rim on the Raptors. The problem is that Anunoby hasn’t been able to get there all that frequently, which is what this play could unlock.
The reason VanVleet is so crucial to this action is not only because he’s a great screener for his position, using his bulky frame and smart footwork to consistently make contact with defenders, but also because he’s such a good shooter that he demands the defence’s attention. If he pops out to the three-point line after setting a screen, his defender will have an impossible decision to make: Help on Anunoby’s drive and leave VanVleet open, or stick with VanVleet and give Anunoby a lane to the rim.
Each of these actions can be nullified if the defence switches, but they should be hesitant to
do so against VanVleet and Anunoby given that each player can effectively attack a mismatch. Consequently, this two-man game will work best when the Raptors play small and spaced out, forcing bigger, less mobile players to defend these actions.
The more chemistry VanVleet and Anunoby develop in the two-man game, and the better playmakers they become for one another, the more counters they will have to confuse defences. And the more the defence sells out on their two-man actions, the more they’ll be able to get their teammates involved for easy looks, lessening the self-creation load for everyone involved. In fact, the VanVleet-Anunoby two-man game could even have utility with all the starters playing, and the more spacing provided, the more lethal it should become.
The VanVleet-Anunoby two-man game is not going to solve all the Raptors’ problems right away, but it could become an important tool in their offensive toolbox: One that helps create the most efficient shots in basketball by maximizing the skill sets of two of the most versatile players on the roster.
Eventually, this could become a truly lethal combination and one that defences struggle to contain for years to come.
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