Raptors must lean on top players more to make up for lineup holes

TORONTO — For all the other issues the Toronto Raptors have been having so far this season, injuries haven’t been one of them.

As head coach Darko Rajakovic’s regular starters took to the floor against the Charlotte Hornets Monday night, it was a remarkable demonstration of good luck or good fitness or both. Through 26 games the Raptors' starting five — Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Dennis Schroder and Jakob Poeltl — have been intact for all but four of them. Only Anunoby has missed any games at all, with three of them due to a finger laceration he incurred doing “household chores.”

And it’s not just the starters. The Raptors’ primary reserves have all been largely available. Gary Trent Jr. has missed three games and Precious Achiuwa six and that’s been about it.

Which makes the Raptors’, ummm, uneven start to the season more concerning. Teams that stay healthy and have consistent rotations are supposed to play well. Most of the time, when teams are struggling, injuries are the first reason given.

But as they limp through a season that has been as inspiring as wet cardboard, maybe the easiest solution for the Raptors' woes is to play their best players more and weaker players less.

A novel concept, I realize.

And as the Raptors starters played another passionless first quarter and fell behind by 10 in the opening minutes on their way to what ended up being a much-needed 114-99 win, it might even be a hard sell at the moment. Should the Raptors be giving more minutes to a starting group that has a minus-three net rating on the season?

Okay, maybe we don’t need expanded portfolios for Schroder and Poeltl, who seem fine averaging 31.9 and 26.7 minutes, respectively. Neither were at their best against the Hornets as they uncharacteristically combined for seven of the Raptors' 19 turnovers — gaffes that gave Charlotte life all game long.

But what about the Raptors 'Big 3?' Siakam and Anunoby have each had their minutes pulled back from last season when Siakam led the NBA at 37.4 minutes per game and Anunoby — at 35.6 — would have been 10th had he played enough games to qualify. Meanwhile, Barnes’s minutes (34.9) have remained static year-over-year, even though his play has improved significantly.

Barnes, who said that he emphasized improved conditioning in his off-season training, certainly didn’t look like playing 39 minutes against Charlotte was a problem. He got better as the game went on as he finished with 22 points, a career-high tying 17 rebounds and seven assists, scoring 10 points and grabbing six rebounds in the fourth quarter alone as he played all 12 minutes of the final frame.

“I felt good, my body feels great, I wasn’t tired at all, so it worked out,” he said. “It was no problem at all.”

Siakam played 36 minutes on his way to 27 points, eight rebounds and eight assists, but had enough gas in the tank to score 18 points in his 19 second-half minutes.

The Raptors outscored Charlotte 28-14 in the final nine minutes of the game, breaking open an otherwise close contest.

Perhaps the Raptors' key performance came from Gary Trent Jr. who scored 22 points and grabbed 10 rebounds — both season highs — as he played 34 minutes off the bench, his second-highest total of the season.

Toronto shot 51.2 per cent from the floor but was 8-of-29 from three as they improved to 11-15 on the season. Charlotte was held to 43.8 per cent shooting and 8-of-32 from three as they fell to 7-19.

The three Raptors pillars at least can boast a positive point differential (plus-1.3/100 possessions) in their 389 minutes of shared court time. As well, each of them are key figures in other lineup configurations that have worked well for Rajakovic. Siakam and Anunoby lead the team in their 'on-off' impact: Toronto is 12.1 points/100 better when Siakam plays than when he sits while it’s plus-9.5/100 for Anunoby. Barnes plays a good chunk of his minutes propping up bench units as the lone starter and suffers for that, but that’s hardly his doing.

The conservative approach to minutes per game has been by design. Over the previous two seasons former head coach Nick Nurse rode his starters more than any coach in the NBA. The downside was some concerns over injuries and a lack of opportunity for bench players to develop.

The upside was the Raptors won 48 games two seasons ago and 41 last season, making the playoffs and the play-in tournament. This season the Raptors are on pace for 33 wins and will only make the play-in tournament if the teams around them — Chicago, Charlotte and Atlanta — continue to be equally unimpressive.

The difference in how Rajakovic uses his top players has been remarkable compared to how they were deployed last season.

Siakam has played more than 40 minutes in a game just once — an overtime loss to Chicago in the third game of the season. Apart from that he hasn’t played more than 38 minutes once and in 15 games he’s played less than 36.

Last season? Once Siakam returned from missing most of November with a groin injury and had the accompanying minutes restriction lifted, he averaged 39.3 minutes and played less than 36 minutes just three times in his next stretch of 25 healthy games. He played over 40 minutes 11 times.

Anunoby hasn’t played more than 40 minutes once this season and over 38 minutes just one time. In 14 of his 21 appearances this season he’s played less than 36 minutes. Through his first 21 games last year he played less than 36 minutes just six times.

Barnes was struggling early last season but still played 38 minutes or more in nine of his first stretch of 25 games after he recovered from some early-season ankle problems. He played less than 36 minutes seven times. This season despite being — arguably — the Raptors’ best all-round player so far, the 22-year-old had played more than 36 minutes just seven times in 25 games before Monday night.

Could changes be coming?

Rajakovic has already begun to move away from the 10-man rotation he tried to establish early on. With rookie Gradey Dick not ready to contribute, newcomer Jalen McDaniels failing to earn the coach’s trust and a seeming unwillingness to use veteran Otto Porter Jr. regularly, Rajakovic hasn’t had 10 players deserving of regular minutes.

The question is if competing for a spot in the play-in tournament or beyond is the goal, is going even nine deep the way to go?

“One thing that we cannot overlook is... we have (had) a pretty healthy roster this season,” said Rajakovic. “That’s a testament to our medical staff but also us working together to try to manage those minutes. I always look at the long-term benefits for the player, for the team, for the organization and for everybody. I think that every single night running guys to 38, 40 minutes, it’s really, really hard. But on certain nights if that happens, it happens.”

It happened on Monday night — at least in Barnes’ case — and it was a pivotal decision in the win even as the Raptors started slowly and failed to put any meaningful distance between them and a Hornets team that was missing four starters and was using its 11th different starting lineup on Monday night. Toronto trailed by nine at the end of the first quarter, six at halftime and started the fourth quarter trailing 81-79 thanks to not enough three-pointers made (just six on 21 attempts in the first 36 minutes) and too many turnovers (17 leading to 23 Hornets points).

But Barnes looked determined to put his team on his shoulders down the stretch and his coach gave him the minutes he needed to finish the job.

“Scottie did (a) really good job rebounding, moving the ball, and scoring it in the most important moments of the game for us,” said Rajakovic. “He gave us a lot of energy there.”

Hornets head coach Steve Clifford has no choice but to play his key players heavy minutes given their run of injuries, their short-handedness made worse Monday when Miles Bridges was denied entry into Canada for legal reasons.

But Clifford, the veteran of 23 NBA seasons — 10 as a head coach and 13 as an assistant — is a firm believer that playing your best players more is the key to success, especially for teams that are on the outside of the playoff picture trying to claw their way in.

“There are coaches in this league who you could argue one of the best things they do is they play their guys,” said Clifford. “You want your best players on the floor. I’m sorry.”

Not all teams have to do it that way, Clifford pointed out. Teams built to win big and that have the luxury of depth and talent have some leeway when it comes to doling out minutes. Their plan is to be at their best in May and June.

“That’s a totally different dynamic,” Clifford said. “You’re going to pace your team totally differently than when you are a team like us.”

Or the Raptors, he could have added. Rajakovic and his staff put a lot of energy and time into planning out their rotations, ideally emphasizing his teams’ relative strengths and minimizing their weakness.

The simplest solution might be the most obvious one of all: play his best players more, more often.