Raptors overwhelmed again by Magic as slump continues

Man. At the start of their four-game road trip last Thursday I tried to forecast how many games the Toronto Raptors would win in what was then the 20 they had left. I figured the high end was six, the low end four. They have now lost seven straight (and nine of their last 10) and it’s fair to wonder if they’re even going to end up finishing 4-16.

The Orlando Magic were once again too much for the Raptors as they ended up running away with a 111-96 win, sweeping the home-and-home series with Toronto. The rising Magic might have the edge over Toronto at any point, but looked especially dominant with several Raptors regulars on the shelf.

Orlando improved to 40-28 and is just half a game behind the New York Knicks for fourth place in the East. The Raptors fell to 23-45 and are now tied with the Memphis Grizzlies for the sixth-worst record in the league, which could help them when the draft lottery rolls around next month.

Six Raptors finished in double figures but that was more a case of generalized 'meh' rather than a deep team firing on all cylinders. Jordan Nwora was pretty good off the bench, leading Toronto with 18 points on 7-of-9 shooting. Paulo Banchero led Orlando with 29 points on 11-of-16 shooting as Toronto lacked anyone to effectively guard the mobile six-foot-10 power forward.

Some takeaways, and apologies in advance that there were only four:

I’m old enough to remember when opposing coaches would describe the Raptors as a big, physical team. Like, last season. How small the Raptors have gotten in the span of a year really stands out against a team like the Magic. At the end of last season, the Raptors could turn to Jakob Poeltl (seven foot), Pascal Siakam (six-foot-nine), OG Anunoby (six-foot-seven but could guard a seven-foot centre or six-foot-five shooting guard equally as well), Scottie Barnes (six-foot-eight, but plays bigger) and Precious Achiuwa (six-foot-nine but capable of guarding bigger or smaller), as well as Fred VanVleet, who might have only been six-foot, but was thick and strong and didn’t often get taken advantage of by bigger players.

Tellingly, that version of the Raptors was fifth in the NBA in defensive rating after the all-star break once Poeltl was added to the lineup to provide the rim protection they were missing. And now? Those advantages are long gone. The Magic are bigger at almost every position than the Raptors, all the way through the lineup. It doesn’t help that Poeltl and Barnes are hurt, But even then, Anunoby and Achiuwa play for the Knicks and Siakam for the Pacers.

The players the Raptors have replaced them with are smaller than those that left. RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley have decent size for their positions — small forward and point guard, respectively, at six-foot-six and six-foot-five — but they’re not particularly physical players, and Barrett remains away from the team following the death of his younger brother last week.

Kelly Olynyk is a smart, willing defender, but lacks the athletic or physical punch that gives offensive players a second thought when attacking him. You could say the same thing about rookie Gradey Dick, who is interested in playing defence, but just not very good at it yet. Ochai Agbaji has the physical tools to be an excellent NBA defender, but stands just six-foot-five, and hasn’t shown the offensive pop to keep him on the floor when even this team is at full health.

That said, the Raptors tried on Sunday night. They collapsed on the ball hard, helping whenever possible, betting that the Magic’s anemic three-point shooting (they are last in the NBA in makes, fourth from the bottom in percentage) would let them get away with it. But how the Raptors can compete defensively is going to be the real question as their rebuild moves ahead.

We’ll see if they can find or nurture players that can manage the offensive demands of the system that head coach Darko Rajakovic has implemented while having the ability required to compete defensively at a high level with a team like the Magic. Tall task.

Bias alert: I have always loved to watch Joe Ingles play basketball. He’s not everyone’s flavour. He’s not a highlight factory, and if you don’t pay close attention you might miss why he’s still in the NBA at age 36 and, um, movement-challenged. But watching him run pick-and-roll against guys a decade younger and infinitely faster is really fun.

He kind of fakes a couple of times to his right, then spins and uses his wide, six-foot-nine frame to create a smidgen more space for himself. Then he rocks a couple of dribbles while manipulating the screen, defenders having to respect the fact he’s a career 41 per cent three-point shooter (and 42.4 per cent this season) and then… poof... he’s slipped the ball through an impossibly small crack to hit the roller for a lay-up or used his size to fling it cross-court to an open corner shooter. It’s true mastery.

Ingles didn’t become an NBA starter until he was 30 years old with Utah. Since then he’s averaged six assists a game on a per-36-minute basis. He played 28 minutes in two games against Toronto and had seven.

Let’s play a game: Who among the Raptors who suited up against Orlando will play for Toronto next season? The easy ones: Quickly (the pending restricted free agent will be expensive to keep, but I’d bet on it), Olynyk (under contract, fills a need as a spot starter and rotational big) and Dick (Raptors need him to take a nice leap as a second-year player). So that’s three.

After that? At this point it would be a mistake to let Gary Trent Jr. walk for nothing as a free agent, so barring something crazy happening, I predict he’ll return on a deal not all that different than the one he’s just finishing up: Let’s say three years for $60 million, which keeps him around and keeps him tradeable.

I don’t think Ochai Agbaji has shown much as a Raptor, but he’s still on a rookie contract and profiles as the kind of defender the Raptors are short on, so I don’t think giving him a summer to develop his game under team supervision and another crack at it next year is the worst idea.

After that? Javon Freeman-Liberty? He’s not playing now, so it's hard to imagine him playing next season when games matter again. He’s out. Nwora? He can shoot, he's got some size and he’s cheap. He played well against the Magic on Friday and started over Dick in the second half on Sunday. He had 32 points on 12-of-17 shooting in these two games against the Magic, so he’s doing his part. He needs to lock into a more defensive-minded approach, but if he does, he’s in.

Jontay Porter? The highly personable lefty is a poor man’s Olynyk, basically, with less size. The Raptors need some rim protection, more than what Porter can offer. I’d say he’s not back, much as it pains me.

Bruce Brown? He’s a pending free agent unless the Raptors pick up the $23 million option his contract calls for next season, so he’ll be looking for a new deal somewhere. The Raptors could be in that mix, but Brown will have plenty of suitors at the mid-level, might be hard to keep and he’s an awkward fit around Dick and Trent Jr. if the latter is back. I’d lean toward 'no.'

It’s too soon to know about Jahmi'us Ramsey, who is in the midst of a second 10-day contract with the team. He’s shown he can shoot in the G-league and has the athleticism to hang defensively, but does he profile as a point guard who can back up Quickley? That’s the job that’s available. Jalen McDaniels is under contract, so I’ll bet he returns, even though a coaching staff desperate for bodies hasn’t found a way to use him consistently.

Garrett Temple’s mentoring skills will age well, and I know he wants to come back, so let’s say yes. So final tally: Of the 12 players in uniform against Orlando on Sunday, I predict eight will be back. Not sure if that’s good or bad.

Another tough night for Dick against the Magic. After being minus-32 in 23 minutes on Friday the gangly rookie was minus-27 in 26 minutes on Sunday. That’s minus-59 in the 49 minutes Dick was on the floor over two games.

The Raptors were showing some signs of making a push midway through the fourth quarter and were trailing by 12 when Rajakovic brought Dick back into the game with 7:25 to play, having had him sit down the stretch on Friday.

There was nothing horrible, but the lack of good plays and a few so-so plays add up. Dick couldn’t contain Franz Wagner on a couple of drives, putting the six-foot-10 German on the line once and then watching him pitch out for a three the other time. And then Dick lost him altogether on the baseline when the Raptors went zone, leading to an easy lay-up. In the space of five minutes, the Magic were up by 20. Not all Dick’s fault, but he didn’t help stop the bleeding either.

On the night, Dick made two of his three three-point attempts but also had three turnovers and lacked the kind of assertiveness on both ends he’s going to need to have going forward. Dick was excellent in an overtime loss to Portland last week and even better when the Raptors took the Denver Nuggets to the wire on Monday, but he’s been shaky since. Plus-minus is a weak indicator of individual performance most of the time but minus-59 in 49 minutes over two games is hard to ignore.