Raptors show positive signs in tight loss against surging Warriors

Heading into the final game of a road trip against the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night, the Toronto Raptors were 16-14 in their past 30 starts. But a lot of those wins were against teams happy to cruise into the draft lottery and on some nights the Raptors were one of them, at least based on the lineups they were playing.

The Warriors represented a different challenge: One of the hottest teams in the NBA with a healthy, veteran lineup and all the motivation in the world as they fight for playoff seeding in Western Conference.

So in that context, the Raptors' performance Thursday night was perhaps the most convincing evidence yet that there is the outline of a competitive team hiding not too far under the surface of their 24-46 record.

There was plenty to like in what ended up being a 117-114 loss, and if someone is tempted to nitpick and point out that Warriors star Steph Curry had to leave the game with 3:24 left in the third quarter after he got knocked to the floor and fell hard on his tailbone? Well, the Raptors were leading by five at that point, having taken control of the contest with a 20-5 run after they went into the half trailing by six.

The Raptors' game plan called for denying Curry the ball at every opportunity and letting Draymond Green and some of the Warriors' less proven three-point shooters beat them. It worked against Curry as he got up only eight shots in his 25 minutes, while Green ended up shooting 14 threes, a career high. He made four early on his way to 18 first-half points, which helped the Warriors jump to a 67-61 lead after two quarters. But the Raptors stuck with the plan and Green hit just one three and scored three points in the second half as Toronto began to take control.

The difference in the fourth quarter came down to execution and detail, which should make for some good teaching points. The Raptors shot 52 per cent in the final period (and 56.4 per cent for the game), but they made six of their 23 turnovers in the final period and got to the line only twice. The Warriors shot 6-of-24 in the fourth quarter (Jimmy Butler was 1-of-11 on his own) but made just one turnover and shot 10-of-11 from the line. For the game, the Warriors shot 42.2 per cent from the floor but made 19 threes to 11 for the Raptors, and turned it over only 14 times.

It wasn’t an ideal outcome — or maybe it was as the loss does help the Raptors' lottery chances — but that level of competitiveness at the end of a four-game road trip against a quality opponent that was trying to win? It was refreshing, honestly, and the Raptors very easily could, and perhaps should, have notched the victory. It gives a little more oomph to the Raptors getting wins against the Sixers and Jazz these days, and it’s hard not to be encouraged for what Toronto might be able to morph into this time a year from now.

GRANGE FOR THREE

Barnes comes up big

In competitive games against quality opponents, you need your best players to show up and play well. A number of the Raptors passed that test Thursday.

Immanuel Quickley finished with 21 points, eight assists and three steals to offset his five turnovers, and Jakob Poeltl had 18 points, eight rebounds and two blocks and even got to play eight minutes in the fourth quarter.

But the Raptors' main guy was the main guy, as Scottie Barnes had one of his best games of the season, finishing with 29 points, 10 rebounds and six assists while playing lockdown defence on Butler and anyone else he got matched up with. For all of the softer skills Barnes has and is working on developing, it’s games like this one when he just plays bigger, longer and stronger than the opposition — while still exhibiting his trademark feel and IQ — where you can see a potential superstar emerging.

There’s still plenty of work to be done as a shooter and ball-handler in tight spaces — the main advantage someone like Butler has, in comparison, for example — but when Barnes plays big he often comes up huge.

Butler the change the Warriors needed to make

The last time the Warriors played the Raptors, Golden State lost in Toronto on Jan. 13 and fell one game under .500. It was the Raptors' ninth win of the season and just their second win in 18 games at that point. But it was the Warriors who were at a low ebb, having lost 17 of 24 as one more of the few remaining years of Curry’s prime seemed set to drift into the void.

I was in the visitors’ locker room at Scotiabank Arena when Curry was asked about his view of what the Warriors should do — if anything — to rescue their season at the trade deadline. Curry seemed prepared to cut the team he’s won four titles with a little slack.

"Desperate trades or desperate moves that deplete the future, there is a responsibility on allowing or keeping the franchise in a good space and good spot when it comes to where we leave this thing when we're done,” he said. “Doesn't mean that you're not trying to get better… but it doesn't mean that you're desperate just flinging assets all around the place just because you want to do something."

Three weeks later the Warriors did something, and it was big, as they acquired Butler from the Miami Heat, and gave him a $110-million contract extension that will keep him with the Warriors through the 2026-27 season, when Butler will be 37 and Curry will be turning 39.

For now, the risk has paid off. With the win over the Raptors, the Dubs improved to 16-3 since adding Butler and 16-2 when he’s actually in the lineup. Butler gives the Warriors another elite defender and some much-needed playmaking and scoring punch to lighten the load on Curry. Since Butler’s arrival, the Warriors have a plus-16.5 net rating per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor and Curry sits, a luxury Golden State hasn't had since Kevin Durant was helping the team win titles.

Butler showed his value again when Curry had to leave the game with the Warriors trailing. It’s a different style than when Curry is sprinting everywhere, stretching the defence in every direction. With Butler in charge, the pace is slower and more deliberate, but possessions are used wisely, and the offence keeps coming. The Warriors don’t fall apart.

That theory will get tested if Curry misses a significant amount of time in the coming days or weeks, but at least Butler — who finished with 16 points, 11 rebounds, 12 assists, two blocks and two steals against Toronto — gives them a chance.

Breaking down Curry's shooting numbers

There has been a lot of conversation about Curry topping 4,000 career threes recently, and for good reason.

If Curry were to retire tomorrow, it’s a record that would stand for decades. Consider that his closest active pursuer is 35-year-old James Harden, who is at 3,137 made threes. Curry is at 4,010 after he went 2-of-4 against Toronto on his way to 17 points on eight shots as the Raptors prioritized limiting his shot attempts all night.

Curry is now up to 263 threes on the season to 197 for Harden, meaning the Warriors star is still pulling away from his nearest pursuer. If Curry retired this season, the Los Angeles Clippers guard would likely need four more years to get to 4,000 and have a chance to catch him. If Curry plays four more seasons, he might get to 5,000.

But Curry has another record that also could stand for a long time — his single-season mark of 402 threes he set in 2015-16 when he played 79 games and shot his career-best 45.4 per cent on 11.2 three-points attempts per game.

It was a barrier-breaking season as Curry smashed his own record of 286 threes set the previous season by 40.5 per cent. When Mark McGwire became the first major leaguer to his 70 home runs in 1998 and broke Roger Maris’ 37-year-old record of 61, it was just a 14.8-per-cent jump. When Wayne Gretzky scored 92 goals in 1981-82, it was a 21.1-per-cent increase on Phil Esposito’s record of 76 goals set in 1970-71.

In Curry’s case, his 2015-16 season was a combination of volume, durability and consistency we may not see again. Harden has the second-highest single-season total with 378 threes in 2018-19 and he’s never otherwise made 300 in a season.

Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards is on pace to lead the NBA with 316 makes this season, which would make him just the third person to ever crack 300 in a season (Curry has a good chance to do it for a sixth time this season).

But 400 is a totally different story. Curry’s never come close since 2016, his next best year being the 357 he made last season.