Raptors stuck in the middle in season of mixed messages, frustration

TORONTO – “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”

Immortal words from Lloyd Christmas to live by if you’re an extreme optimist and dreamer, or just a Toronto Raptors fan this season.

Following their 131-129 loss to the Washington Wizards on Thursday, the Raptors now have just a 1.1-per-cent chance of capturing the No. 10 seed and a 0.4-per-cent shot of making the playoffs outright, according to Basketball Reference.

Logically speaking, that’s a surefire sign that the Raptors’ regular season is finished, something that management is likely surely happy about – even though they won’t say it publicly.

However, there have been some mixed messages along the way to what now seems to have always been the plan for the Raptors. Dating back to the trade deadline, when the team made the decision to keep Kyle Lowry, that looked to be a sign that Toronto would be trying to win and possibly make a run into the play-in tournament and beyond.

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Sure, trading Norman Powell hurt their chances a bit in that respect, but getting Gary Trent Jr. in return looked like a suitable replacement that, with the team at full strength, figured to be able to do similar things to Powell anyway.

Adding to this, shortly after at the deadline, Raptors president Masai Ujiri himself also seemed to indicate that the team would be pushing for a post-season berth.

“Hey, we believe any time we step on that court that we can win,” said Ujiri. “That’s just how we are and that’s how we play, and that’s how we want to be. So, however they diagramed that tournament, we’ll try to figure it out if we get there.”

This talk from Ujiri was supported in the weeks that followed as Toronto’s front office added centres Khem Birch and Freddie Gillespie, and even converted forward Yuta Watanabe’s contract into a standard deal.

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All three of these men emerged as key contributors for the Raptors and with them all playing as well as they were that surely meant the Raptors would get on a roll and make a concerted push into that last play-in spot… right?

Well, that’s how it should’ve gone, at least except for the small factor that’s seen the Raptors sit key players such as Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby over the past three weeks or so for some thin-looking injury reasons or just straight-up rest.

This is where some of the confusing signals from the Raptors came in. If they really were going for it, then why sit key players during big games – such as Lowry being called a late scratch for Thursday’s game? And, on the flip side, if they were just going to try to tank anyway, why not trade Lowry to a contender?

“Obviously, he’s a player that has earned a right to play high-stakes games,” said Raptors coach Nick Nurse of Lowry. “We’ve had a hell of a lot of success and a heck of a lot of meaningful games, and he’s been right at the epicentre of all of that. He’s been our heartbeat for all that.”

And he should have been in the middle of this entire possible run towards the play-in tournament, but he hasn’t, having played just nine of 22 games since the trade deadline.

And what’s even more frustrating about that whole situation is just how well the Raptors have played down the stretch of the season. Though their record is only 9-14 since the trade deadline, they own a positive net rating during that span, as Nurse has done all he can to squeeze every ounce of talent out of the players who have been made available to him.

Of the 14 losses the Raptors have suffered during that span, six have come by five points or less, including in their last two games – both played without Lowry.

It’s been frustrating to watch because it’s been the story of the Raptors’ season thus far. The team has repeatedly competed hard and played well this year, but just hasn’t had the finishing touches to get a win.

It’s hard to not to think “what if” with the Raptors this season, had they not sat guys at inopportune times. Nurse has done great job getting his guys to play as well as they have, and he’s rightfully proud of the job his team has done so far.

“I know it’s really easy to kinda say, ‘Look, it’s a close game and whatever,’ but I think it’s tremendous that we’re playing the hottest, best teams in the league and out-playing them, giving them everything they want,” said Nurse. “I look at it more like that. It’s more encouraging and probably spectacular that these guys are rising up and figuring out how to do that than it is to sit here and say, ‘Ah, we lost another close one; Geez, we can’t win a close one.’ I know that’s easy to say and many people will say that. I’m not saying it.”

That’s a very positive attitude, and it almost makes you believe that the Raptors still could reach the play-in tournament.

However, the shadow of just a 1.1-per-cent chance of making it in looms over the Raptors, and the reality in their remaining five games will probably come down to seeing if they might be able to better their lottery odds.

Toronto currently has the seventh-best shot at the No. 1 overall pick, with a 7.5-per cent-chance. With a 5.5-game lead ahead of both the Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers, chances are the seventh-best is where they’re going to stick.

This, too, is a point of frustration, because had the Raptors opted to just go all-in on their tank from the get-go instead of making moves that looked to actually improve themselves this season there may have been a chance to make it into the vaunted top five of this year’s draft.

Essentially, it looks like the Raptors got caught in the middle of what direction they wanted to head in. And this indecision has left them in their current situation.

It’s not great, but given how this entire season has gone for Toronto, it seems fitting.