Raptors Takeaways: Youngsters seize opportunity as injuries plague early season

When the NBA schedule came out, it was hard to look at it objectively and decide where the Toronto Raptors would find their wins in the early going of what has been definitively labelled a rebuilding season.

Game after game, it seemed the Raptors were matched up with teams that were either in the playoffs or the play-in tournament a year ago. Only three times in their first 25 starts were they scheduled to play a team that had won less than 46 games last season, a year in which the Raptors won just 25.

It looked scary or — if you’re of the mind that improving draft lottery odds should be the main priority this season anyway — it looked like an opportunity. 

But as the games began being played out on wood, rather than in the mind’s eye, mileage on pre-season prognostications began to predictably vary. An ugly blowout loss to Cleveland on opening night seemed to confirm the worst-case scenarios, but then a challenging match-up against the Philadelphia 76ers turned out not to be, as stars Joel Embiid and Paul George sat out with injury and the Raptors outworked them, winning comfortably. A hard-fought loss on the road to the aspirational Minnesota Timberwolves followed, but then a match-up against the Denver Nuggets turned out to be not that big a deal — sure Nikola Jokic dominated — but the 2023 champs, it turns out, have their own issues elsewhere in their lineup.  The Raptors lost a game they very much should have won.

But Charlotte?

Charlotte was a game that looked like one the Raptors could get. The Hornets won just 21 games themselves a year ago. They are rebuilding, and they have the added incentive of not having to give up their protected first-round pick to San Antonio if they stay among the league’s bottom 14 teams.

Flip side? Wins or losses over teams like Charlotte can be pivotal in the race to the bottom of the standings and better lottery odds.

This was of course before the Raptors announced that Scottie Barnes — who led Toronto in points, assists and steals and stands second in rebounds through four games — would be out for the next three weeks at minimum after suffering a fractured orbital bone when a stray Jokic elbow caught him in the face.

Right away the Raptors' short-term future got that much more daunting: trying to win games with a healthy Barnes has proven hard enough. As well, with Barnes out for an extended period, point guard Immanuel Quickley still out with a bruised lower back and RJ Barrett having just come back from his shoulder injury, the cohesion and synchronicity the Raptors were likely hoping to develop among the three highest paid members of their young core looks like it will take a little bit longer to hone.

As one might have expected, Toronto lost to Charlotte on the road in another game without their starting point guard and their star. But the Raptors' losses aren’t as expected.

Toronto fell behind by 23 in the second quarter and briefly looked like the rope might be slipping through their fingers but rallied before half thanks to scoring 43 points on 17-of-22 shooting in the second quarter. They took a lead early in the third quarter and were leading by five with 2:29 left in the period before they tripped over themselves again — four live ball turnovers in the final two minutes sparked a 12-0 run by the Hornets, who led 103-96 to start the fourth.

The Raptors kept at it and got some excellent performances up and down their lineup — a career-high 30 points from 20-year-old Gradey Dick; 31 points (and 17 in the fourth quarter) from Barrett in his second game back; a monster game from Jakob Poeltl who added 20 points and 16 rebounds and was a team-best +18 for the night, just to note a few. But Toronto was only 9-of-28 from three while Charlotte was 20-of-45, and the Raptors missed 10 free throws on 30 attempts. That’s tough math to overcome.

The loss dropped Toronto to 1-4 on the season with a tough home back-to-back coming up against the Lakers and Sacramento before they head out on a five-game road trip. The record they have and the challenges ahead of them might have been expected, but Toronto is at least showing that they will not be going quietly into the nether regions of lottery land.

Takeaways:

Jonathan Mogbo, starter:

With Barnes out, Darko Rajakovic filled his spot in the starting lineup with Barnes's childhood friend who happens to play a style not all that different from the Raptors' injured star. Mogbo is positionless in the sense that — like Barnes — he can sort of play all of them. He saw plenty of action at centre in small-ball lineups but looked his best playing alongside Poeltl and more than passably guarding Miles Bridges, the Hornets' over-sized small forward who scored 45 against the Raptors the last time the two teams played in Charlotte but was held to just seven points on 2-of-11 shooting on Wednesday. Mogbo (11 points, five rebounds, two assists, a steal and two blocked shots in 25 minutes) continues to impress by doing plenty without trying to do too much. His most impressive play might have been late in the fourth when he corralled a tough pass on the pick-and-roll, didn’t panic while stuck under the basket, and calmly flipped a pass to a cutting Dick for an important bucket. Mogbo does more with less.

Davion Mitchell, opportunity seized:

The Raptors predictably didn’t offer an extension to the fourth-year point guard who they acquired from Sacramento in the off-season — they control his rights as a restricted free agent, so why not make sure they know what they’re getting before they buy? But what they have given Mitchell is a rare opportunity to rack up starts while Quickley has been out and likely find an expanded role off the bench with Barnes now out. Against Charlotte, Mitchell proved his value as he made life very difficult for LaMelo Ball — the rangy Hornets point guard shot just 7-of-20 from the floor and committed six turnovers, with Mitchell in his jersey most of the time. On offence, Mitchell is proving himself a solid, no-nonsense floor general. He finished with 11 points and 11 assists and was a big reason the Raptors were in position to win the game.

More Jak:

Since the Raptors have always been much better with Jakob on the floor than when he sits, it’s fair to wonder why the big Austrian centre has averaged just 27 minutes a game as a Raptor. It’s match-up dependant, likely, and represents the challenge of playing a non-shooting big who shoots free throws poorly down the stretch of close games, which explains why he’s averaged just 26 minutes a game for his career. Still, if he plays more, he produces more. In his past two games, Poeltl has been on the floor for an average of 37 minutes and averaged 18 points and 17 rebounds (it was 20 and 16 in 35 minutes against Charlotte) while converting 63 per cent of his field goal chances. His energy has been notable in the past two games, especially banging against Charlotte's big man Nick Richards. More Poeltl might be the Raptors' easiest lineup fix.

RJ Barrett, that’s who:

There’s little question that Barrett is comfortable if less Barnes and no Quickley means more weight on his shoulders. As he said after his questionable attempt on a game-winning three against Denver in overtime: “That’s just who RJ Barrett is.” But against the Hornets, he looked much more prepared for the role he’ll likely be stepping into. After a shaky first quarter (1-of-5, three turnovers), he locked in and was a nice part of Toronto’s second-quarter flow as he headed into halftime with seven assists. But in the fourth quarter when the Raptors needed buckets, he was more than ready for that job too. He had 17 points on eight shots, and when he hit a pair of threes on consecutive possessions in the final two minutes — one as a trailer on a break, another after Mitchell sought him out on a dribble handoff — to pull the Raptors within five, it looked briefly like his determination to take important shots would pay off.

Gradey Dick for two:

The Raptors were optimistic that the second-year wing would build on his encouraging finish to last season, but it’s unlikely they thought it would be this much, this soon. Dick doesn’t turn 21 until Nov. 20th and he’s set his career scoring marks twice in the past three games, topping his 25-point outing against Minnesota Saturday with a 30-bomb Wednesday. What’s notable is that his big scoring nights aren’t a product of high-volume three-point shooting. He made four against the Timberwolves and just two against Charlotte. Instead, it’s constant off-ball movement, tremendous effort in transition and a growing knack for finding a way to get the ball in the basket when he drives closeouts. Floaters, finger rolls, reverses, right hand or left, Dick knows how to get the ball in the hoop. Dick is averaging 18.8 points a game in five starts but shooting just 34.4 per cent from three. There’s a good chance that both of those numbers will continue to climb.