When the Golden State Warriors last played the Denver Nuggets in a playoff series back in 2013, the Dubs were on the precipice of a dynastic and revolutionary run.
This time around, the Warriors have years of success behind them and hope they can reach the pinnacle again in this second phase. The Nuggets, with a possible two-time MVP, hope to begin a championship window of their own. However, injuries could stand in the way of both.
It's two teams at different stages, both with different styles, making this No. 3-6 seed series one of the most intriguing first-round matchups.
Here’s how it breaks down:
Season series: 3-1 Denver
Quick Tape
Warriors: 53-29 | No. 16 offence | No. 2 defence | No. 4 net rating
Nuggets: 48-34 | No. 6 offence | No. 15 defence | No. 11 net rating
Betting Futures
To win series: GSW: -225, DEN +185 (Courtesy Bet365 at time of publication)
To win championship: GSW: +800, DEN: +2500
Warriors Starting 5: Stephen Curry (if healthy), Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney
Warriors Bench: Jordan Poole, Andre Iguodala, Gary Payton II, Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica, Jonathan Kuminga
Nuggets Starting 5: Monte Morris, Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green, Nikola Jokic
Nuggets Bench: Austin Rivers, Bones Hyland, Bryn Forbes, JaMychal Green, DeMarcus Cousins
Pulse of the Warriors
This was going to be the year Golden State was finally back. The Warriors were healthy, rejuvenated and started the season on an absolute tear. Then Thompson joined after a 941-day absence, which was supposed to take them over the top. It hasn’t exactly. The Warriors are below .500 since the All-Star break, finishing third in the West thanks only to their early-season success. You could chalk the struggles up to injuries – both Curry and Green have missed time – because Golden State is already a stellar defensive team, and obviously has the offensive weapons to make a splash on the other end. Curry, Thompson and Green have played only 11 minutes together this season, if they can find a groove and stay healthy, there’s championship potential.
But that’s already in question to begin the playoffs due to Curry’s foot injury. The latest, as of Monday, is he’s making “good progress,” yet his status for the weekend is uncertain. It goes without saying, but Curry's health is imperative to Golden State going on a run.
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Pulse of the Nuggets
The pulse of the Nuggets all comes from the very centre, literally. Everything runs through Jokic. He led the team in points, assists, rebounds, steals and blocks. He’s having a historical offensive season while holding his own on defence. Although Morris, Barton, Rivers and Gordon have stepped into bigger roles, he orchestrates nearly every play for Denver. Not a single player in the league is as vital to their team this season, which is why he could be in line for a second consecutive MVP – even as a sixth seed.
A lot of Jokic’s heavy lifting is by proxy of injuries to Denver’s next best players: Michael Porter Jr. and Kitchener, Ont.’s Jamal Murray. Porter underwent back surgery in November, Murray has been out since suffering a torn ACL in 2021. Shams Charania of The Athletic reports both are “unlikely” to return for the playoffs. Their absences, and the work Jokic has put in to get the Nuggets to where they are as a result, is the story of the season for Denver.
Key matchup to watch
Nikola Jokic vs. Draymond Green. What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? OK, maybe that’s exaggerating, but this is one of the era’s top offensive talents against one of the era’s best defenders, so sign me up. Green will share some of the burden with Looney, but the Warriors love to go small, and you can bet Green will be on Jokic in crunch time. Can Green slow him down despite being at a massive size disadvantage?
Golden State wins if …
They’re healthy. Yes, they’ll need to limit Jokic as much as possible, yes they’ll need to keep Barton and Morris from getting hot, but, really, Golden State should pull off a win in at least six games if Curry gets back and everyone remains available. Even if Jokic is the best player in the series as Curry works back from injury, the Warriors’ depth when healthy surpasses the Nuggets by too wide a margin.
Denver wins if …
Jokic gets a lot of help. I think Jokic thrives no matter what Green throws his way. One-on-one? Too tall, too shifty, too (insert any number of skills here). Send a double team? No problem, Jokic darts a perfect pass to an open three-point shooter in the corner, or tosses a no-look dime behind his back to a cutter under the basket. What he needs is what he’s needed all season, help. If Jeff Green, Morris, Gordon, Barton et al. hit the open looks they’re bound to get, Denver could be in business.
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