When the Toronto Raptors reacquired Kawhi Leonard, his missing several games this season was part of the calculus.
Leonard has averaged 57 games per season throughout his career. That dipped to 47 over his last seven seasons with the Los Angeles Clippers, and his high was 68. That meant baking at least 15 or so games without Leonard into the equation — on the optimistic end.
How the Raptors managed this inevitable time without their once-again superstar would have a significant bearing on their season. So the team's stumbles during Leonard's sooner-than-expected absence are at least mildly concerning.
After coming out gangbusters with back-to-back wins to open the season — albeit against weaker competition — the Raptors have staggered through a 3-4 stretch in the seven games without Leonard since. More worrisome are three decisive losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, reminiscent of their 5-22 record against the NBA's top 10 teams last season.
On a more granular level, their half-court offence is stuck in the mud, many players appear to be in over their heads, and the Raptors have struggled to clean their own glass.
There are pathways to improvement for the time being. And Leonard's return should remedy some of these shortcomings.
Regardless, it's clear that instead of dominating without Leonard as they did in their 2018-19 championship season (17-5), the Raptors will have to tread water when The Klaw is sidelined instead.
Half-court headaches
Last season, the Raptors climbed out of the halfcourt cellar for the first time in half a decade. They were the 10th-ranked group at scoring against set defences. But the reprieve was short-lived, as Toronto is now 24th with 90.7 points per 100 half-court plays (per Cleaning the Glass, which excludes garbage time). It makes sense, too, since it's similar personnel that the Raptors had available when they were the 25th-ranked half-court offence in 2024-25 before trading for Brandon Ingram.
Toronto is still managing to generate above-average offence using a familiar formula: The Raptors are running out in transition more than any other team in the NBA (20.1 per cent of the time, also according to Cleaning the Glass).
However, the league's best teams are often better at dictating pace and turning the transition tap off. In their four losses, Toronto played in transition just 15.5 per cent of the time, slightly below the league average. The Raptors will need their half-court offence to be at least passable to contend with the NBA's top tier. Not to mention that the pace of play slows in the playoffs.
Luckily, Leonard's return should ameliorate some of the issues they're facing. To start, his track record says he's the most efficient scorer on the team out of a variety of play types — drives, isolations, pick-and-roll ball-handling, and post-ups — and he does it at a high volume.
More, the Raptors are once again among the league's worst three-point shooting teams, ranking 27th in percentage (31.5), 28th in makes (11) and dead last in pull-up makes (1.3). This game is getting old, but 17 players are making more pull-up threes per game than the Raptors.
This is one of the aspects of Toronto's offence that Leonard is supposed to help fix. He's a career 39 per cent three-point shooter on 4.4 attempts per game, and those numbers jumped to 40 per cent on 5.4 attempts during his time with the Clippers. Leonard made 1.4 pull-up triples per game last season, and the Raptors made 1.5. His willingness to get threes up, overall volume, and the dynamism provided by his pull-up threat should all be significant boons to Toronto in the halfcourt.
Leonard's offence is often far more straightforward than the methods the Raptors are used to. He comes off a screen and fires a three right away. Or goes right at his defender and overpowers them for a good look. This brand of offence relies on fewer moving parts — multiple passes and cuts working in concert — and is therefore more consistent.
One example is the shot generated for Leonard off this Horns Ghost Flare play the Raptors often run, vs. the shot created for Scottie Barnes.
Leonard immediately launches a three when he has space. Barnes turns down the shot for a contested mid-range look. They're both made shots, but it shows one way that Leonard helps streamline the Raptors' offensive process.
Scaling up is easier said than done
Leonard's presence streamlines the Raptors' offence. His absence forces it into uncomfortable positions.
Entering the season, the importance of players "scaling up" their roles on nights when Leonard isn't available, particularly RJ Barrett, was a common talking point. It is important, and Barrett is a great example of a player capable of taking on additional pick-and-roll possessions and ball-handling responsibilities. He's made good passes to his big men and provided plenty of rim pressure on a Raptors team otherwise bereft of it.
But putting more on Barrett's shoulders also has its drawbacks. The Mississauga, Ont.-born wing is taking on nearly double the possessions as a pick-and-roll ball handler compared to last season (from 3.0 to 5.3 per game), and his true shooting percentage has dropped from 58.5 per cent to 54.7 per cent. Maintaining above-average, or even elite, efficiency on high volume is reserved for stars like Leonard. Barrett's should climb again when Leonard returns, and he starts spotting up and cutting more off the ball.
Barnes is another example of a Raptors player whose offensive process has become more laborious without Leonard. Barnes is currently second in the NBA in mid-range attempts per game (5.9) to only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It's more than double the 2.4 he averaged last season and his true shooting has also dropped — from 57.7 per cent to 52.2 per cent. The volatility of this shot diet was evident when Barnes scored zero points against the Timberwolves, then a career-high 41 two games later against the Magic.
It stands to reason that Leonard will take more of these shots when he returns, and Barnes will be freed up to get the ball more often where he excels most: in motion towards the rim. Leonard occupying the opposing team's best defender should benefit Barnes, too. With Leonard out, Barnes and Barrett have been overextended. When he returns, the trio's roles should be a clean fit.
Board man gets paid for a reason
Considering the emphasis the Raptors place on the possession battle, they are giving away entirely too many second-chance opportunities to opponents.
The Raptors are averaging the fewest defensive rebounds per game in the NBA (27.4). This is a little deceptive, as they are also allowing the fewest field-goal attempts per game (80.7), meaning they get fewer chances to grab defensive boards. But they are also rebounding just 66.3 per cent of opponents' misses, the 24th-ranked defensive rebounding percentage.
No matter how you slice it, the ball is the most important part of basketball, and the Raptors need to finish more possessions. Enter Leonard, who has a track record as one of the best rebounding wings in NBA history and whose positive impact on his team's defensive rebounding averaged in the 84th percentile over his time with the Clippers (per Cleaning the Glass).
Part of the Raptors' struggles here are also undoubtedly due to Jakob Poeltl's early-season woes. But similar to the offensive side of the ball, Leonard's return will slot everyone into more optimal roles by adding size to the Raptors' lineup. Barrett will be matched up with more guards, Barnes might get to run ahead in transition more, and everyone should be able to grab more boards, board man included.
