TORONTO — First, let’s consider some positives.
In the battle against drawing conclusions about the 1-3 Toronto Raptors based on relatively small sample sizes, it’s always useful to look for the good, even if the bad is what is consistently smacking you in the face.
It’s too early, in other words, to shift into trade-everybody mode.
So, how about that team defence?
A year removed from being the team that seemingly either stole the ball from you or gave you an uncontested layup, the Raptors have transitioned to a more conservative style under new coach Darko Rajakovic, where double teams are used judiciously, and random swarming and gambles in the passing lanes aren’t part of the package. It’s taken root in short order and is paying dividends.
The Raptors were 29th in opponent effective field-goal percentage — which accounts for the value of two- and three-point field goals — last season, a level of competency typically associated with high lottery teams.
So far, the Raptors are second overall in opponents' eFG%. It’s a great foundation for winning.
The Raptors haven’t exactly faced a murders' row of offensive juggernauts in Minnesota, Chicago or Portland — Philadelphia being the exception — but with their overall length and athleticism, and the option of using a traditional centre in Jakob Poeltl or going smaller and more mobile at the five with lineups featuring Precious Achiuwa (when healthy) or Chris Boucher, the Raptors can cause some problems.
And, hey, how about that ball movement?
Being a pass-first team has been a loudly stated goal for Rajakovic since he was hired in May. The early returns were there in the pre-season, and even through a rough start in the regular season, the ball has moved.
The Raptors lead the NBA in passes made per game, and if some subpar shooting (we’ll get to that) has brought down their assist totals, they still rank 15th overall, which is better than they were a season ago, when they were 23rd. That they rank seventh in potential assists (17th last season) is an indicator of what could be happening.
And, sure, it was hard to say goodbye to Fred VanVleet, the Raptors incumbent point guard who signed with the Houston Rockets in free agency. But his replacement, World Cup MVP Dennis Schroder, is off to an encouraging start. He’s fifth in the NBA with 8.8 assists per game and is fifth in assist-to-turnover ratio among players averaging at least 30 minutes a game.
Rookie Gradey Dick is showing signs of being a contributor sooner than most expected, and third-year forward Scottie Barnes looks like he’s taken another step in his development.
But 1-3 is 1-3. And 1-3 is a lot more concerning when four of your next five games are on the road and the softest spot on your schedule is likely against the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday in San Antonio. The Spurs are young and developing, but no one thinks No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama is going to take too long to figure out the NBA game. A 1-8 start would really cramp everyone’s style.
The root problem, of course, is the Raptors offence. Not to belabour the point, but it’s terrible.
Under Rajakovic, the Raptors are trying to play what he calls a "0.5 offence": basically, decisions to pass, cut or shoot need to happen in 0.5 seconds, there should be constant motion, eventually leading to a breakdown that allows an open shot. But the Raptors are either failing to find the cohesion they need between passing and cutting or missing the open shots generated. In the meantime, recognizing and exploiting 1-on-1 advantages seems to be taking a back seat. How patient will the Raptors veterans be without results?
“The NBA is a game of matchups, like we got to find a way to exploit what we have, the talent that we have to get the best out of it,” said Raptors forward Pascal Siakam, who was an All-Star last season, when he averaged 24.2 points and 5.8 assists on 48 per cent shooting. His usage rate has slipped from a career-high 27.2 per cent to 22.1 per cent, which would be the lowest since he was the fifth option in his first year as a starter, in 2018-19. “That’s the way it’s got to be. We have to continue to exploit that. We have to continue to attack the paint, continue to make the right reads. The coach is involved, we have figure out a way to do that. Use the abilities that we have, use the talent that we have to our advantage to go out there and exploit anything that we can on the floor. It could be cuts, it could be whatever the case may be, but we have to have to be able to get to the paint.”
The plan is to use passing and cutting to open up the paint, rather than attacking mismatches in isolation, but so far the returns have been less than what may have been hoped.
The passing is up, yes, but so are the turnovers. After being first in turnover percentage last season — it’s easier to keep possession if you don’t pass — Toronto is 24th in that category through four games.
One element that has carried over: the Raptors remain a poor shooting team. They were 28th in eFG a year ago at 51.7 per cent and this year are 27th, but at 48.6 per cent.
This early in the season, it’s easy to suggest that the Raptors' offensive stats are being dragged down by poor three-point shooting — they did, after all, shoot a miserable 4-of-29 against Portland, their worst performance from deep since 2017 — but they’re 21st, even after Wednesday night. In the first three games of the season, they shot a very encouraging 39 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Raptors' defensive rebounding looks like it’s going to be an issue and means they aren’t getting rewarded for making the initial stop. They gave up 13 offensive rebounds on Monday night and have given up an average of 13 per game for the season.
“We're really good in open court and in transition, but those (offensive rebounds) are wasted opportunities that we didn't have a chance to go and run and then score easy,” said Rajakovic after the Raptors practice on Tuesday. “ ... Actually, last night we touched the paint a lot. Actually, last night we had potential assists at 70 per cent. But when you shoot 4-for-29, everything else gets magnified. Every little defensive situation, everything on offence, everything gets magnified. Our margin to win games is not big. So, we need every player to contribute, and we need to take care of the ball and the rebounds and make some shots.”
The next question is, Or what? But it almost doesn’t need to be asked. The answer is, "More losses," and an extended losing streak to start the season just at the point when ideally you’re building momentum for the long road ahead.
It’s too early to look at four games and draw conclusions. As Siakam said Tuesday:
“Obviously, a couple games there where I felt like we played well, we played well enough to win but we didn’t rebound well enough. There were possessions out there where we played good defence and just didn’t finish the possession and gave them second-chance opportunities, sometimes even third. So, it’s kinda tough to win that way, and then obviously we didn’t shoot the ball well from three," the eight-year veteran said.
“In this league, if you don’t shoot well, it’s going to be hard to win, and then if you don’t rebound with that, it’s even harder. So, I think that we’ve gotta fix those things.”
The alternative isn’t pretty but worry about that bridge when we get there, however soon that might be.
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