The NBA Finals have wrapped up, the Denver Nuggets have celebrated their first championship in team history and Nikola Jokic is presumably back home in Serbia with his horses. The off-season has officially arrived. So it’s time to get weird with our NBA bets.
With long-time Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet opting out of his $22.8 million player option for the 2023-24 season, what better place to start than asking “where will Freddy find himself?”
FVV’s Options
Toronto Raptors -125
Houston Rockets +700
Phoenix Suns +700
Orlando Magic +850
Philadelphia 76ers +900
Los Angeles Lakers +1000
Los Angeles Clippers +1800
Portland Trail Blazers +2000
Dallas Mavericks +2200
Minnesota Timberwolves +2200
The Frontunners
Let’s start with the obvious. VanVleet has played his whole career with the Raptors and won a title with them, so you’d imagine there’s at least some loyalty between him and the team.
Toronto GM Bobby Webster has intimated that he wants to bring VanVleet back, and the Raps can pay him more and offer him more years than anyone else in the NBA. Players decline options for one reason: To get paid more on a new contract.
That’s why the Raptors are the odds-on favourite to sign their second-leading scorer this offseason. We’re here to get weird though, and betting on a -125 favourite isn’t weird enough.
I mean, if I had to bet my life, I’d go with the Raptors. But my money? Let’s at least make it fun.
The first team that jumps out to me is Philadelphia. The Sixers fired coach Doc Rivers after they were eliminated by Boston, signing former Toronto head coach Nick Nurse before the playoffs were even done. Nurse and VanVleet have a famously close relationship, and with James Harden possibly on his way out, they could be in the market for a starting point guard with playoff credentials.
That’s why Philadelphia +900 is right in that sweet spot for a silly off-season bet: I could see it happening, and the odds are long enough to be fun.
Any time a good-to-great veteran player hits the open market, you have to at least consider the Los Angeles Lakers (+1000). Even if there is zero buzz, the Lakers are a threat to land any free agent out of the blue, and in VanVleet’s case, the fit is pretty nice. The Lakers were undone by their lack of secondary offensive playmaking behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis. While Austin Reaves was and is a great story and a surprisingly impactful pick-and-roll ball handler, he’s probably a little underqualified to be the third-best player on a title contender.
VanVleet would give the Lakers a much-needed veteran point guard presence, better point-of-attack defence than anyone on their roster can provide, and despite a career-low year from downtown, another semi-reliable outside shooter. If LeBron and Co. can’t get Kyrie Irving, VanVleet is the best point guard available.
The Also-Rans
I’d be blown away if VanVleet lands in Orlando, Houston or Portland. The fit in Portland is terrible, as signing VanVleet would necessitate trading Anfernee Simons or Damian Lillard, and failure to do so would leave the Trail Blazers with three small guards they’d probably feel compelled to play together. Houston and Orlando are destinations I believe VanVleet won’t like, barring the possibility of a Godfather offer.
VanVleet is only 28, so while I don’t think he’ll be specifically ring chasing, the undrafted player from Wichita State has never struck me as someone who would chase a bigger bag at the expense of title contention. Or at least playoff contention.
That eliminates the Rockets and Magic, whose development timelines don’t mesh well with an in-his-prime VanVleet.
The Dark Horse
The Phoenix Suns have their own veteran point guard to worry about in Chris Paul, but if they let him walk, the NBA’s most top-heavy roster will need someone to replace him. As a team with clear title hopes, the Suns will not be looking for a project and they won’t be looking for yet another league average player. Phoenix could easily create the cap room to give VanVleet a sizeable raise, especially if the Suns elect to move embattled big man Deandre Ayton.
I could see an Ayton-VanVleet sign and trade, if the Raptors want to get a little younger without completely punting on the 2023-24 season. Ayton would give the Raptors their first real big man since Marc Gasol. The more I think about it, the more I convince myself it could happen, so Phoenix (+700) could be a decent mid-tier bet.
The Darkest Horse
You want a real dark horse pick? I can’t even find odds for VanVleet landing on the Oklahoma City Thunder. But when he opted out, OKC was the first destination I thought of for him.
Adding VanVleet would allow the Thunder, who were already a surprise play-in team last season, to move Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams to the wing on defence. It would also give them another shooter around pick-and-roll actions involving either Giddey or Gilgeous-Alexander and former second-overall pick Chet Holmgren.
If Thunder GM Sam Presti decides it’s finally time to start trying to win, VanVleet could also be a culture setter, much in the way Andre Iguodala was for Golden State a decade ago. He has a wealth of playoff experience and a deep knowledge of what it takes to win in the NBA. Add that to a team made up entirely of extremely talented guys who have played their entire careers for losing squads, and you could have something really special if VanVleet can bring his fiery brand of leadership with him.
In the end, re-signing with the Raptors does seem like the most likely outcome for one of Toronto’s most beloved players. If there was more acrimony between VanVleet and the team, it might be different, but both parties appear eager to work something out.