THE 25 PLAYERS WHO WILL DEFINE THE NBA SEASON

You arrived in the NBA with more hype than any prospect since LeBron James. You won the Rookie of the Year award unanimously, despite strong competition from another No. 1 pick. You broke precedent by placing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting, even though rookies are rarely (statistically) impactful on that end and your team was a bottom-10 defence overall. You caused the powerhouse U.S.A. team to sweat in the Olympic gold medal game, earning silver for France on home turf. So, what do you do next? You show up to camp having (reportedly) added 25 pounds of muscle, ready to go from tantalizing rookie to genuine sophomore superstar and potentially lead your team to one of the biggest win jumps in league history (San Antonio won 22 games last year; going 44-38 this year would be a top-five jump ever). Wembanyama is ready to drive winning, and while the Spurs aren’t perfectly built around him yet, they added veteran help (Harrison Barnes and Chris Paul), their secondary core is a year older and more mature, and they’ll probably stop playing suboptimal lineups in the name of experimentation (read: not winning) and capping Wembanyama’s minutes in the name of load management (read: not winning). He’ll be on MVP ballots this year. He’s 20 years old. We’re all in big, big trouble, Billy-Madison-with-the-dodgeball style. —BM

Are the Miami Heat still the Miami Heat? Are they still the NBA franchise with a culture that can help a team achieve more than the sum of its parts? Or are they like any other organization, now — mostly subject to the talent on hand and injury luck? How Jimmy Butler gets through this season will have a big say in that. At his best, Butler can still dominate games — he quietly averaged 20/5/4 with 62.6 per cent true shooting last season and is still one of the league’s best wing defenders — but as Heat president Pat Riley pointed out in the off-season, the 35-year-old misses a lot of time. Butler played just 60 games last season and 57 the season before. But he has every reason to be at his best this year, with the potential to be a free agent this coming off-season. If he’s healthy and motivated, look for him to lift the Heat into the East playoff race. If not, Miami could be headed for a restructuring, and Butler could be headed out of town. —MG

The Suns’ shortcomings last year were largely predictable given the health history of their three stars, and there’s only so much you can do to address depth in the tax-and-aprons environment (I see you, Ryan Dunn). Other than finding some wins at the roster margins, like Tyus Jones on a minimum deal, Phoenix’s path to being even better is for Booker — about to turn 28, three years younger than Bradley Beal and eight younger than Kevin Durant — to keep adding and growing as he has in recent years. Booker’s far more than just a scorer now, basically becoming the team’s point guard last year, which most advanced metrics graded as his strongest season overall. Durant is still the team’s (the league’s?) scariest scorer; Booker might slightly surpass him in importance this year. —BM

The Oklahoma City Thunder star is perfectly primed for prime time. His game has already been recognized. The slithery, time-bending point guard finished second in MVP voting last season after leading the Thunder to a 57-win season. But after an off-season where the Thunder added two key pieces — Isaiah Hartenstein as a paint-protection big and Alex Caruso as an elite 3-and-D wing — everyone has Oklahoma as the favourite to emerge from the West and a legitimate threat to win the NBA title. Should that all come to pass, the Canadian national team star will have a platform like he’s never had before, likely an MVP award to go with it and — given the Thunder’s relative youth and roster flexibility — the possibility that this is only the start. —MG

The Hornets won 48 games total over the last two years following a somewhat surprising 43-win 2021-22, in large part because Ball hasn’t been able to stay on the floor. A Rookie of the Year and a breakout All-Star as a sophomore, Ball’s played just 58 games since. When he’s played, he still looks how you remember, capable of scoring 25 with 10 dimes on a given night, pushing pace with an array of fancy transition passes, and with enough shooting range to bend defences in ways that make things easier for a somewhat pedestrian roster around him. The Hornets have still been outscored by 6.6 points per 100 possessions with Ball on the floor the last two years (compared to a slightly worse -8.7 without him), so it’s not as if he’s a panacea for Charlotte as it attempts to get into play-in range. He is, however, a tremendously exciting player we’d all love to see more of, and in an ugly bottom of the East, Charlotte’s path to “not that bad” is a little clearer if Ball’s healthy. —BM

On one hand, Jayson Tatum is at the top of the basketball pyramid. He’s coming off an NBA championship and an Olympic gold medal, and signed a five-year contract extension for $315 million in the off-season.  At just 26 years old, he has been an all-NBA selection for five consecutive seasons. But Tatum still has doubters. It was Jaylen Brown, not Tatum, who was the Celtics’ best playoff performer last season, and Tatum struggled to find a spot in Steve Kerr’s rotation with Team USA. He’s at the stage of his career where he should be contending for MVP awards, but instead he finds himself a step behind some of his peers, such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic, with young guys like Anthony Edwards and Victor Wembanyama getting in position to make their own pushes. In short, even as Tatum builds a resume as an all-time Celtic great, he still has plenty to prove. For the rest of the NBA, it’s a sobering thought. —MG

The Thunder are the only team with two players on this list, which suggests they’ve  transitioned from the “innocent climb,” as Pat Riley would say, to a team with genuine expectations come playoff time. While Holmgren was runner-up to Wembanyama in Rookie of the Year voting, he had a tremendous first season, even narrowly beating out Wembanyama in some of the more team performance-based catch-all metrics, like EPM. Holmgren flashed reliable 3-point range at good volume, finished at the rim at a solid rate, made good secondary reads in the offence, and had a block rate in the 94th percentile among bigs, delivering on his promise as a huge rim deterrent. The Thunder will need even more now. He’ll need to be not just a good passer for a big but a good passer, period, helping turn advantages Gilgeous-Alexander creates into even bigger ones. He can also be a bit more active in passing lanes, to the extent Mark Daigneault wants him to be. And for a team that may only have one healthy rotation player taller than 6-foot-6 to start the season, he simply has to rebound at a higher level, whether it’s fair or not to put that burden on one guy. Reaching the upper echelon of the West and winning a championship means asking even those who are ahead of schedule for more, sooner. —BM

What if Nikola Jokic’s best season is still yet to come? The Denver star has been the league’s most productive and efficient player over the past four seasons, and has his three MVPs and an NBA championship to show for it. But the Nuggets are not as deep a team as they were in their title season, having lost the likes of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown since lifting the Larry O’Brien. In addition, questions have arisen about the durability of Jokic’s running mate, Jamal Murray. So, the scenario exists where the Serbian star will have to shoulder an even bigger load than he normally does. If he can manage it, and can keep the Nuggets in championship contention, a fourth MVP — something only Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James have done — isn’t out of the question. —MG

The defining star of the first year of the Emirates NBA Cup, Haliburton fell on harder times as the season rolled along. After missing 10 of 11 games in January due to a hamstring injury, he never quite looked the same; after averaging 23.6 points on 63.9-percent true shooting with 12.5 assists per game prior to that point, he averaged 16.8 points on 57.5-percent true shooting with 9.3 assists afterword. Those are still good numbers, they’re just not gameplan-bending in the way his combination of shooting and passing was when he was at full strength. In the playoffs, he landed somewhere in between, but leg soreness shut him down early in the Conference Finals sweep to the Celtics and reportedly continued to bother him at the Olympics. The Pacers can be very good this year, and Pascal Siakam is a great complement as someone who can help shoulder an offensive load in a different stylistic fashion. They’re only a threat to get into that top tier of East teams if Haliburton is somewhere close to an All-NBA level again. From one wrestling geek to another, here’s hoping it happens. —BM

By any measure, Evan Mobley has shown himself to be more than worthy of the No. 3 pick the Cleveland Cavaliers used on him in the 2021 draft. He leads his draft class in win shares and is second in box score plus-minus. He’s already made an all-defence team and would have likely done it again last season if not for injuries that limited him to 50 games. But here’s the rub: the Cavaliers need Mobley to get better. If he can develop into more of a playmaking hub, and ideally a league-average three-point threat, it should allow the Cavs to thrive with two-big lineups alongside Jarrett Allen. If not, things could get interesting in Cleveland, with the possibility that Allen gets moved to allow Mobley to play centre exclusively. —MG

Even before the bone bruise George suffered on a non-contact play in the preseason, he figured to be one of the East’s central figures. The 76ers once again flamed out early in the playoffs last year, continuing their search for the right co-star next to Joel Embiid (and, now, Tyrese Maxey). They moved off of Jimmy Butler too soon to ride out the Ben Simmons experience, the James Harden experiment never worked, and Tobias Harris was never going to grow into that role despite the salary. Enter George, who is a perfect bridge between an ascendant star guard and a dominant big, on paper, someone who can shift his role seamlessly at both ends, shoot at an elite level, take the reins for short bursts, guard the other team’s top wing scorer, and do it all with a smoothness and fluidity that’s fun to watch. Because it’s Philadelphia, though, we’re once again starting an era with a healthy dose of injury “if.” —BM

The New York Knicks have aggressively made over their roster in the past 12 months, adding OG Anunoby at the mid-point last year and Mikal Bridges in the off-season, but they saved their biggest splash for last when they acquired Karl-Anthony Towns on the eve of training camp for stalwart big Julius Randle and sharpshooter Donte DiVencenzo. It was an all-in move, bringing the New Jersey native back home. But the homecoming will only be a happy one if the former Minnesota star proves to be the missing piece that brings the Knicks their first title in 52 years. Offensively, the fit should be seamless, as Town’s career 40-per cent three-point stroke should make the Knicks one of the most difficult teams to guard and create driving lanes for Jalen Brunson and New York’s collection of wings. But Town’s defence has never been his calling card and there will be no hiding in New York. He’s not in Minnesota anymore, and Towns will have the spotlight on him like never before. —MG

There are fewer than 50 players who played in the league for at least a decade and did it all with one team. It certainly felt like Thompson, Steph Curry, and Draymond Green were all going to accomplish that together. Instead, Thompson’s now in Dallas, trying to help Luka Doncic and company get over the hump. How much of peak Thompson can the Mavericks expect to get? At 34, with multiple missed seasons due to injury on his record, maybe it doesn’t come back, especially on defence. But even if that’s the case, Thompson remains one of the league’s premiere shooters, with a 41.3-percent career mark from long-range (40 percent exactly over the last two seasons) and the league’s best free-throw percentage. He’s also still one of the game’s smarter players, someone who will surely recognize how to play around and off of Doncic, operating in 4-on-3 situations or moving without the ball; even his decline years have had an 86th-percentile grade for offensive impact.  —BM

The Orlando Magic have been patient in their rebuild and, to this point, that’s paid off with a solid playoff contender and a deep, young roster. But it’s hard to win at the highest level in the NBA without a superstar, and it’s not unreasonable to say the Magic’s championship chances rely on Banchero becoming one, sooner than later. The case for: The No.1 pick of the 2022 draft made a statement in his playoff debut last season, putting up 27 points, 8.6 rebounds and 4.0 assists as Orlando pushed the Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games in the first-round. The nimble, 6-foot-10, 250-pound bruiser also proved he could get almost any shot he wanted. The case against: He burns through a lot of possessions. Banchero went just 45.6 per cent from the floor during the playoffs, while committing nearly five turnovers a game. He was no more efficient with possessions in the regular season, one reason the Magic’s offence was rated 22nd overall. Another year of experience and better spacing with the addition of veteran shooter Caldwell-Pope should help. A better Banchero could be a significant problem for the rest of the Eastern Conference. —MG

Evaluating young players in a losing environment is always difficult. You certainly can’t hang bad teams on rookies alone, even No. 1 picks. Injuries play a part, too, and Cunningham basically had to redshirt his sophomore year. In his third season, the Pistons were even worse, embarking on a league-record losing streak and winning just 14 games. Nobody would look at that roster and think it was a good team, but does Cunningham now shoulder some of the responsibility, heading into Year 4 and with solid surface-level numbers? Controlling for quality of teammates and other factors, Cunningham was a minor positive last year, with the Pistons even worse when he sat. “Less worse” is not where the bar is going to be now that he’s 23, with a max extension already in-hand. —BM

With the prospect of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry (eventually?) ageing out after decades of dominance, the NBA is holding auditions for the next ‘Face of the League.’ There are plenty of candidates (hello, Victor Wembanyama), but Edwards has the inside track based on his combination of youth, passport, charisma, highlight worthiness and status on one of the NBA’s best teams. As Edwards lifted Minnesota to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in 25 years last spring, a few irresponsible types even threw out Jordan comparisons. (Uh, Jordan averaged 43 points a game in his age-22 post-season, Edwards put up 25/5/5.) Clearly, the hype train has left the station, and to his credit, Edwards seems okay with it. The trick now for the Wolves star is to build on his breakout year and lift Minnesota to new heights. There is no rest for superstars. —MG

We removed Flagg from this list multiple times. He’s not an NBA player yet! We’ve seen highly touted prospects fall from their No. 1 ranking or flounder when they reach the NBA! You can’t overindex to Wembanyama’s ridiculous rookie season! In the end, though, there are a handful of teams whose seasons we can already say will be influenced by Flagg (and other top prospects in a draft expected to be notably stronger than 2024). The bottom of the East is bad, and really bad in some cases. The West is competitive enough that one key injury (hello, Kawhi Leonard) could send you from playoff hopeful to sending the Thunder an unprotected lottery pick, and a bad start could change your deadline plans to “live to fight another year.” With apologies to late-list cuts Trae Young and DeMar DeRozan — fun player! fun team! — the talk of tanking will likely dominate the bottom third of the league once again, and Flagg will be right at the centre of it. —BM

The Toronto Raptors have been very explicit about the 23-year-old’s job description, making no bones about him being the team’s franchise player. Coming off an all-star season in Year 3, Barnes signed a five-year maximum contract extension worth $225 million, which could escalate to $270 million if he is named to an all-NBA team after this season or wins the league’s defensive player of the year award. Everyone agrees that Barnes’ ceiling remains very high, but exactly how high, and what his game looks like when he arrives at his best self is still unknown — remarkable for a player entering his fourth season. Is he Draymond Green with elite offensive pop? Giannis Antetokounmpo with superior feel? Magic Johnson with high-end athleticism? Will his maturity match his talent? That Barnes’ final form remains so fluid gives Raptors fans something fascinating to watch during a rebuilding season. —MG

The most physically imposing force in the NBA astounds whenever he’s able to play, and last year that was for a career-high 70 games. The season still ended in disappointment, though, with Williamson leaving a play-in game following a hamstring injury. (The Pelicans advanced, only to get swept by the Thunder without Williamson.) The group around Williamson is strong — Brandon Ingram has a beautiful offensive game, Herb Jones is no longer a hipster 3-and-D prospect, Trey Murphy III (when healthy) has arrived, and so on — but their upside is defined by the person they’re building all of this around. Williamson has been thought of as a potential weapon at centre for years without the results you’d hoped for, and this is a pretty small team that might not have a choice other than to give it an extended try again. Williamson is capable. His 2020-21 season is not that far behind us, and he’s still only 24. It’s time for him to put it together at the highest of levels. —BM

On one hand, he is the 55th pick in the NBA draft — by definition, nothing-to-lose territory for NBA front offices. No one in their right mind will spend a minute debating whether the Toronto Raptors were wise to use the 57th pick on Ulrich Chomche, for example. But on the other, the son of LeBron James was clearly underqualified when he was drafted by the Los Angeles Lakers, the team his dad plays for, and even less qualified for the four-year, $8-million contract the Lakers gave him, with the first two years guaranteed. The whole spectacle means the 20-year-old rookie will be scrutinized to a degree wholly inappropriate for a player of his status, but then again, nepotism rarely fails to fascinate. Here’s hoping the younger James can use the security of his situation to develop at his pace with long stretches out of the spotlight in the G League, and eventually carve out an NBA career on his own merits. —MG

There are different types of pressure in the NBA: Pressure to make a roster. Pressure heading into free agency. Pressure as a high draft pick, as a star player, after a bad season. Kuminga’s feeling a lot of them this year, as a No. 7 pick who we have constantly heard wasn’t made available in trade packages for Player X, Y, or Z who maybe would have fit the Steph Curry timeline better. And he’s a restricted free agent after the season. Look, some of the Kuminga rumours have probably been just that, because the NBA loves slop. But he’s still with the Warriors, which tells us something. He took a big jump last year and has the athletic ability to do even more, he just has to figure out how to progress within the Golden State context and the role (and position) they ask of him. For now. —BM

There is little question what the Chicago Bulls guard is capable of when healthy. From 2019-20 to 2022-23, LaVine was one of five players to average at least 25 points a game with three made threes and a true shooting percentage of 60 or more. The other four were Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving and James Harden. Of them, LaVine, 29, played the most games over that stretch. But persistent knee problems limited LaVine to 23 games last season and his production fell off a cliff, a scary prospect given he has three years and $138 million left on his contract. The Bulls have been eager to trade LaVine as they pivot to a rebuild of sorts, but have found no takers. If LaVine can stay healthy and return to his typical levels of performance, he could find a home as a finishing piece on a contender. If not? The Bulls and LaVine could be stuck in place for years. —MG

The Grizzlies are coming off a season in which they set an NBA record for most players used due to an unrelenting string of bad injury luck. Morant was a part of that, undergoing surgery to repair a shoulder subluxation just nine games after returning from suspension. Memphis can’t possibly have that kind of luck again, and a full season of Morant is a franchise-changer. In 2021-22, he won Most Improved Player, received MVP votes, and made Second Team All-NBA, all while playing just 57 games. That’s how good he can be, and the supporting cast around him is solid enough to make Memphis a trendy sleeper pick to vault back up the West standings. Few players are more fun to watch when they have it going, and now Morant has a lot to remind people of. —BM

Could this be the last dance in the Milwaukee for the Bucks star? It’s not hard to imagine. If the ageing core around the two-time MVP — himself soon to turn 30 — can’t help him bring a second championship to Milwaukee, or even advance past the second round for the first time since their 2021-22 championship, a graceful exit as the Bucks pivot to a rebuild is a possibility the rest of the NBA will be eyeing carefully. If Antetokounmpo can stay healthy — he’s been injured in the post-season the last two years — and find the chemistry with Damian Lillard that was missing a season ago, the Bucks remain a formidable obstacle in the East. But if Milwaukee sputters out of the gate, portending another disappointing finish, the Giannis watch could be on in full force, and the NBA’s trade machine might explode. —MG

Houston finished .500 last year, expediting their rebuild by adding a few key veterans to guide their cache of prospects and make sure they’re developing in a competitive environment. There’s a lot to like heading into this year, too, with Cam Whitmore, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and others likely to show growth after strong seasons. Green is the swing piece. The No. 2 pick in 2021, he’s never quite looked that good, and while he has the type of game that can sometimes be overrated, it’s felt like on-average people are down on him. Now, he’s signed an unconventional short-term rookie extension. The message seems to be that the Rockets remain well-invested, but he’s got a lot to prove to reach the level of his 2021 draft peers. —BM