The NBA off-season is the time to get in the weeds. To ask the questions only sickos ask. Like “Wait, Phoenix traded who for Bradley Beal? But who’s going to play point guard?” Questions like “What’s up with the Warriors” and “Will Denver be able to retain Bruce Brown?” You know, all the questions that lead us toward the only thing on the NBA betting horizon: 2023-24 Futures.
Now, if your first instinct is that it’s too early to be picking who the next NBA champion will be, you are 100 per cent correct. These are not bets you make expecting to win regularly. They’re bets you make to give you something to root for over the course of the next season. I typically spread a few 1u and 0.5u bets across a handful of teams and players at this stage, and who knows, sometimes you can get pretty good buy-out value (or even hit) down the road if a team makes a few moves in the right direction.
Let’s start with the title odds.
NBA Championship Futures
The Strongest Contenders
· Denver Nuggets +450
· Boston Celtics +500
· Milwaukee Bucks +550
· Phoenix Suns +600
Your top four title favourites are also the four teams who had the best odds to win before last postseason. Betting aside, my way-to-early NBA Finals pick is Denver vs. Boston with Denver repeating. If I’m betting on any of these teams, I’ll probably end up putting a bit on Denver, Boston and Milwaukee. I’m not too confident in picking Denver to repeat, but the only teams I could be talked into picking are in this group.
Boston’s young core continues to evolve, with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown each posting the best season of their careers last season. Milwaukee is a perpetual contender for as long as Giannis Antetokounmpo is running and dunking at Fiserv Forum. Phoenix has Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and now Bradley Beal.
Which is exactly why the team in this group I’m fading is the Suns. I’m guessing they have more moves in them, but immediately following the Bradley Beal for Chris Paul and filler trade, the Suns still have the same issues that cost them against Denver in May.
They don’t have much defence, and they have even less depth. In fact, they may have exacerbated their problem. For all his injuries and his advanced age, Paul was likely the best defender in Phoenix’s starting lineup. This team of Booker, Beal, Ayton and Durant is going to win a lot of regular season games, but I don’t trust this many score-first ball handlers in a playoff series.
The Ones You Can’t Ignore
· Golden State Warriors +1000
· Los Angeles Lakers +1200
· Miami Heat +2500
In the way the Bucks are a title contender as long as they have Giannis, the same applies to these these teams and their stars.
Let’s start with the California teams. The fact that both L.A. and Golden State fell short, and both Stephen Curry and LeBron James have both entered their elder statesman years, is why I think these are the juiciest odds to be had outside of the state of Florida.
If you just bet on teams featuring Steph and LeBron over the last decade, you’d be in pretty good shape. Both guys were incredible when healthy last season, and both teams made it to the second round in the playoffs with some pretty glaring flaws in their rosters.
If either of these teams make even some improvement on the margins going into next season, they are not to be taken lightly. And even if they don’t, I can see a world where it doesn’t even matter. Think about it like this.
Both Golden State and L.A. had extremely weird seasons. The Lakers battled injuries and roster-building problems for half of the season before remaking most of their roster around LeBron and Anthony Davis. All of that, and they still made it to the Western Conference Finals.
The Warriors were without Andrew Wiggins for the entire second half, and Steph Curry for a quarter of the season. Draymond Green punched Jordan Poole in practice. The young guys didn’t develop as expected. All of that, and they still made it to the second round.
These are teams built around not just star power, but All-Time Greatness. Bet against it at your own risk.
Now, Miami. I mean, they were in the Finals this year. Eastern Conference Finals the year before. And the Finals again in the 2020 bubble playoffs. It’s frankly disrespectful to have them at +2500, but it means great value. For entirely different reasons than LeBron and Steph, bet against Jimmy Butler at your own risk.
The Teams You Can Ignore
· Philadelphia 76ers +1400
· Los Angeles Clippers + 1800
Yeah. I’ll believe it when I see it, and not a second before.
The Dark Horses
· Dallas Mavericks +1800
· Cleveland Cavaliers +2200
· Memphis Grizzlies +2500
· New Orleans Pelicans +3500
Here we find young teams that have underperformed, young stars that have looked dominant but never quite put it together, and whatever’s going on in Memphis.
Last year at this time, I highlighted Dallas as a team that could make a leap, and I’m doing it again this year for the same reason. Luka Doncic is really good. The problem is the Mavericks have been characterized by organizational dysfunction in the last half decade, and bringing in the… mercurial Kyrie Irving hasn’t helped much.
The case for New Orleans is just as simple. When Zion Williamson has played, he’s looked as much like Shaq as a 6-foot-6 forward can. A bet on New Orleans is a shot in the dark that maybe this is the year he finally stays on the court.
I could see them pulling together to win it, but I definitely wouldn’t bet on it.
Cleveland and Memphis are the two from this group I like at these odds. Cleveland’s core is incredibly talented, and they are capable of playing serious, playoff-level defence. I’m thinking about a Grizzlies bet as almost a “buy the dip” situation.
With embattled star Ja Morant suspended for the first 25 games of the year, their odds have dipped. But the Grizzlies have gone 31-16 without Ja in the lineup over the past two seasons, and they have more than enough talent to stay afloat till he returns. If you accept that Memphis is going to make the playoffs despite the suspension, these are generous odds.
My pick for now is Dnever +450, but when it comes to value, my favourites are Memphis +2500 and Miam +2500.
There will be more to come as books post divisional odds and individual awards, but until then…
As always, play safe and don’t chase.