Let’s make one thing abundantly clear, before we get started: I don’t feel super comfortable prognosticating this series for one, very big, very Latvian reason.
We simply don’t know what version of Kristaps Porzingis the Boston Celtics will get. It’s not that Boston is bad without their primary big man (they’re 30-5 between the regular season and playoffs combined when he sits), it’s more about how he could factor into this match up.
If he’s not himself, the Dallas Mavericks have a distinct advantage in the interior. On offence, a hobbled Kristaps means Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively and Derrick Jones Jr. will be free to roll hard to the rim on screens. Even scarier for Boston, it would mean Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, already incomparable interior finishers, will have nothing to deter them in the paint.
When Boston has the ball, Porzingis gives them an element of size inside and in the midrange they’ve lacked all these years. He takes the pressure off of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to generate interior pressure all on their own. If he’s not himself, I think we see him spending a lot of time camped out in the corner. That means Dallas could hide Luka on him, leaving Jones Jr., Gafford, and Lively to roam around mucking things up for Boston in the paint.
The Matchup: Dallas Mavericks (+185) vs Boston Celtics (-220)
I’m going to assume for the rest of this column, that Porzingis will be healthy. This series is still going to be close. I’ve got Boston in 7 (+320) as my pick. It doesn’t matter who the opponent is, Luka Doncic is good enough to steal two games off anyone. Mix in a third game where either Kyrie goes nuts or Boston’s outside shooting betrays it, and you’ve got yourself a seven game series.
The Case for Boston (-220)
The case for Boston is historical. The Celtics have been, by nearly any metric, one of the best teams in NBA history this season. Their 11.6 net rating is tied with the 2016-17 Warriors (the first season with Kevin Durant) for third best all time. They’re the seventh team to post a net rating better than 11, with five of the previous six winning titles. Their 76-20 combined record in the regular season and playoffs is yet another championship harbinger. 15 other teams have entered the finals with 20 or fewer combined losses. Only one (the 2016 Warriors) has failed to win it all. Given all that, -220 seems like a bit of a discount to be honest.
But at +185, Dallas is a far more interesting bet.
The Case for Dallas (+185)
The case for Dallas is simple: They have Luka Doncic, and Boston does not. And their +185 odds would make them the 3rd biggest NBA Finals upset in history (after 2004 Detroit at +500 and 2019 Toronto at +230). So Dallas +185 is my “best bet.” They’ll undoubtedly have the best player in the series, and there’s the possibility Kyrie Irving could be second best. Beyond that, third through probably ninth are all Celtics, but if one of Dallas role players can ball out (looking at you, P.J. Washington), Dallas could be in business.
Another thing to consider: Dallas is 7-2 on the road during the playoffs. Going back to the 2021-22 postseason, Boston is just 17-13 at home. And until the Indiana series, they’d dropped at least one of the first two home games in four straight series. If Dallas can steal one of those first two, Game 3 in Dallas is going to be nervy for a Boston team that is starting to develop a bit of a reputation for coming up short in big moments.
Player Props
First, the big one: Jaylen Brown (+600) is my finals MVP bet. He just won the same award in the Eastern Conference Finals, and for my money has been the better of Boston’s Jays over the last past three playoff runs.
With that in mind, I love Brown over 23.5, which is where his line is for Game 1. With Dallas’ best wing defender in Derrick Jones Jr. occupied with Tatum, it’s likely Brown draws either Luka or P.J. Washington. That he can beat Washington on the ball seems self-evident, but Doncic has played the best defence of his career this postseason. I don’t know if Brown can put his head down and beat Luka off the dribble, but Jaylen’s off-ball game has long been overlooked, and as well as Luka’s played, he still falls asleep defending away from the ball.
It strikes me as weird that no one in this series has an over/under line higher than Doncic’s 3.5 made threes. Is it insane to say I like almost everyone’s over on threes made? It feels insane, but it’s not. Jayson Tatum over 2.5? Sure. Al Horford over 1.5? Why not, all he does is hang out in the corner. Derrick Jones Jr. over 0.5? Same idea. Kyrie Irving over 2.5? He’s got 20 minutes a game as Dallas’ lead offensive player.
More than anything else, I feel confident Luka Doncic is going to post gaudy numbers across the board in this series. He leads the playoffs in points, assists, rebounds, threes, field goals, steals, and turnovers. Counting stats are typically irrelevant but that is indicative of something key: Luka has the ball all the damn time. Right now, the line for his combined points, rebounds, and assists is 49.5. If it drops to 48.5 or 47.5, I’d be hammering the over. At 49.5, I’m less bullish, but this is a player on track to challenge for a spot in the all time top 10. A 30-point triple double per game isn’t out of the question.
A few odds and ends: P.J. Washington is averaging 6.7 rebounds per game, so take him over 5.5 rebounds until that line moves. Kyrie Irving over 4.5 assists is the same thing, with him averaging nearly a full assist more. I like Kristaps Porzingis under 15.5 points as well. I don’t trust big men with below-the-knee leg problems, and I don’t trust guys who have had nearly 40 days off dropping into the absolute meat grinder that has been the Dallas Mavericks’ defence.
As always, play safe and don’t chase.