How many great players does it take to be taken seriously as an NBA contender?
It’s a moving target. If your best player is the best player in the league? Well, you can probably go a little lighter elsewhere on the roster, and maybe emphasize depth or specialists rather than a complementary superstar, though having one certainly doesn’t hurt.
But if your best player is just really good? You need more elsewhere in the lineup. Depth in stars is a requisite NBA title contention and always has been.
From the Toronto Raptors perspective, it’s an interesting question as the NBA playoffs reach the halfway point, or thereabouts. Eight teams are left, and in keeping with a season that featured an unusual degree of parity by NBA standards, there have been blowout games, but no blowout series. You can make a case that all eight teams that made it to the second round could advance to the conference finals, and there is no prohibitive title favourite.
Wednesday night, the NBA awards season concluded with the announcement of the all-NBA teams. As one of the 100 voters, I can acknowledge that there is no science to the process, although any of the accredited media who do have a vote approach the task with significant rigour.
Still, determining if Player X or Y deserves first or second all-defence status – or maybe just misses the cut – inevitably involves a certain about of subjectivity, but I think the entire process provides an interesting glimpse of player value and how the rest of the league views the Raptors’ best players.
All the remaining teams in the playoffs had at least one player on one of the three all-NBA teams announced Wednesday night. The only players to be named all-NBA and not make at least the play-in tournament were Luka Doncic (first team) and Damian Lillard (third).
The Raptors weren’t represented, with Pascal Siakam – third-team all-NBA in 2021-22 and second in 2019-20 – earning one second-team vote and 12 third-team votes (full disclosure, I had Siakam as third-team all-NBA on my ballot) coming the closest, but ultimately finishing ninth among forwards.
A side note: Had Siakam earned all-NBA honours, he would have been eligible for a supermax contract extension. The Raptors could have offered him a five-year deal worth about $290 million this summer that would kick in after his current contract expires in the summer of 2024. It’s a bit of a moot point as – per sources – the only circumstances in which the Raptors would have considered offering the supermax (representing 35 per cent of the salary cap) is if Siakam was an MVP candidate and led Toronto on a deep playoff run. As it stands, Toronto can offer Siakam a four-year extension worth about $192 million.
The Raptors did get some all-league recognition. On Tuesday afternoon, the all-defence teams were announced, and O.G. Anunoby was named to the second team, joining Kawhi Leonard as the only Raptors to ever make an all-defensive team (I had him on my second team).
But that was pretty much it for the Raptors during the awards season, unless you count Scottie Barnes somehow earning one vote for second-team all-defence and a third-team vote as well.
Siakam was named an All-Star this season, albeit as an injury replacement, but other than that, the Raptors are about as top-of-mind among the NBA cognoscenti as you might expect for a team that finished ninth in the Eastern Conference with a 41-41 record.
It’s notable because teams with really good players tend to win stuff: playoff rounds, conference titles and championships.
The Raptors track these things internally.
There’s no hard-and-fast formula, but awards matter. When Toronto won the 2019 championship, its roster was littered with award-level players. The Raptors had an MVP-level player in Kawhi Leonard; a former Defensive Player of the Year winner and former all-NBA centre in Marc Gasol; and a six-time All-Star and former all-NBA guard in Kyle Lowry, who likely should have been an all-defence player at some point during his career. Danny Green was an all-NBA defender with the San Antonio Spurs and Serge Ibaka earned first-team all-defence honours three times in his career, all with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Siakam was one season away from becoming an All-Star, and all-NBA player and Fred VanVleet had an All-Star season in his future, too.
So, the Raptors won the title on the strength of having – arguably – the best player in the NBA in Leonard, supported by three players who had been all-NBA defenders (Gasol, Green and Ibaka); two more who had been on all-NBA teams (Gasol and Lowry); another who was about to be (Siakam); and five players who either were or were future All-Stars (Leonard, Gasol, Lowry, Siakam and VanVleet). Anunoby isn’t included here because he didn’t play in the Raptors playoff run due to appendicitis.
And that was on a roster that was – in relative terms – considered to be egalitarian by NBA standards, though clearly Leonard’s brilliance changed everything, turning a very good team into a great one when he was available and healthy.
As the Raptors try to figure out what to do with their coaching situation – with ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski elaborating on an item Sportsnet reported on Tuesday where retired player-turned broadcaster JJ Redick was a candidate – whoever gets the job will have hard questions about the roster he’ll be working with.
One former all-NBA player (Siakam), an all-NBA defender (Anunoby) and a one-time All-Star (VanVleet) is a pretty thin stew to work with if the expectation is that the Raptors are only fractionally outside the NBA’s top eight. Siakam, VanVleet and Anunoby are certainly encouraging pieces to work with, but it’s concerning that there isn’t much in the line-up to support them. What is the Raptors path to having five All-Stars on their roster? Or five all-defence types? Or four all-NBA players, or an MVP candidate?
It’s not that hard to imagine Barnes earning recognition as an All-Star or even making an all-NBA team at some point in his career, but after following up an impressive rookie season with a redundant second season, the hopes that his progression would be a straight line pointing up seems overly optimistic: Barnes certainly has all-league talent, but harnessing it will take some time.
After that? There are nights when Precious Achiuwa looks like he could really be special and all-NBA defender. But much longer are the stretches when he looks like the nuances of the NBA game will forever remain just beyond his grasp. Jakob Poeltl is a good defender but lacking the oomph that all-NBA defenders have. If you really squint, you can see Gary Trent Jr. getting consideration for a Sixth Man of the Year award, but the first step would be him enthusiastically embracing the role.
But a more likely scenario is the Raptors are what the rest of the league says they are: Siakam is very good, but a borderline All-Star. And as all-NBA voting goes position-less beginning next season, it might be tough to earn a spot in the NBA’s top 15 players going forward. Siakam finished 21st in voting this season. Similarly, VanVleet will always be fighting an uphill battle to be an All-Star again. Anunoby has a chance to make several all-NBA defensive teams as he moves into his prime, but he’ll need to stay healthy and the Raptors will need to put together some winning seasons for it to happen. Neither of those scenarios is guaranteed.
Can Barnes become one of the top 15 or 20 players in the NBA? Maybe. Can he do it next season?
Seems unlikely.
The Raptors’ ability to expand their talent base will be the story of this off-season and likely beyond that.
Maybe the Raptors would be best served trading Siakam – arguably their best player – in order to build a sturdier base of players (and draft picks) for the future.
The other option is standing pat and betting on the internal development of Barnes and some of the Raptors’ other young players to bridge the current gap, which seems optimistic.
Can they get lucky in the draft lottery next week? Or mine a diamond from the lower reaches of the lottery, where they’re projected to pick? The Raptors absolutely have done this before, picking much lower than they will be in June: VanVleet wasn’t drafted; Siakam was taken 27th overall; and Anunoby was 23rd.
Something needs to happen because as the NBA Awards season indicates, the Raptors as currently constructed seem to be well short of the league’s most precious resource: elite players.