What’s funny about this Western Conference Finals matchup you ask?
Well, not only is it a rematch of the 2020 “Bubble” Conference Finals, but it was also just one game away from being a Round 1 matchup instead.
That’s right, if the Los Angeles Lakers lose their first play-in game, they most likely square off with the top-seeded Nuggets in the opening round and rob us of this star-studded conference finals.
But fear not basketball fans, Lakers-Nuggets officially tips off on Tuesday and the storylines are abundant.
If you were to just look at the standings, this looks like it could be a lopsided matchup in favour of Denver. Look a little closer, however, and you’ll see these are the two teams that deserve to battle in hopes of representing the West in the NBA Finals.
The Nuggets’ case is a little easier to see, as they cruised to a Western Conference-best 53-29 record and didn’t have much trouble with either the Minnesota Timberwolves or the Phoenix Suns in the opening two rounds.
The Lakers, meanwhile, had to scrape and claw their way just to make the playoffs after starting the regular season 2-10. But this version of the LeBron James-led Lakers looks completely different than the one that at one point sat 13th in the conference.
Thanks to some savvy moves at the deadline, Los Angeles is now a cohesive unit playing its best basketball at the right time and should have some momentum after knocking off the defending champion Golden State Warriors in Round 2.
To get you set for this heavyweight showdown, we look at one burning question for each team, and one series X-factor who could swing the series.
Series Overview
Regular season series: Tied 2-2
Odds to win series: Nuggets -159 | Lakers +115 (via Sports Interaction)
Series Schedule:
Game 1: Tuesday, May 16 @ Denver, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 2: Thursday, May 18 @ Denver, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 3: Saturday, May 20 @ Los Angeles 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 4: Monday, May 22 @ Los Angeles 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 5: Wednesday, May 24 @ Denver, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 6: Friday, May 26 @ Los Angeles, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 7: Sunday, May 28 @ Denver, 8:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Nuggets over Lakers in seven games
Denver Nuggets Burning Question – Can their unstoppable offence trump the Lakers’ immovable defence?
This series is the classic strength versus strength matchup, with the Nuggets’ high-powered offence clashing with the Lakers’ stout defence.
In fact, it’s literally the No. 1 offence against the No. 1 defence in terms of efficiency numbers through the first two rounds of the playoffs.
The Nuggets have scored 118.7 points per 100 possessions after their first 11 post-season games. They also sport a playoff-best 2.20 assist-to-turnover ratio. These guys just flat-out know how to score the basketball.
However, they face a Lakers squad that is giving up just 106.5 points per 100 possessions, even after a series with Steph Curry and the Warriors.
Coincidentally, the players that are most directly linked to their team’s top spot on the respective sides of the ball will most likely spend the majority of this series guarding one another.
Lakers big man Anthony Davis will draw the near-impossible task of defending two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. For his career, Jokic currently has the best NBA playoff player efficiency in history at 29.04, better than both LeBron (27.97) and Michael Jordan (28.60).
If there was one player who could possibly be up to the task of limiting Jokic, it would be Davis.
The Lakers’ big man leads all players this post-season in both rebounding (14.2 per game) and blocks (3.2 per game). Los Angeles also is holding teams to just 47.9 per cent shooting in the paint when Davis is on the floor.
Los Angeles has yet to face a post presence near the calibre of Jokic, though. The Serbian big man is averaging nearly a triple-double through 11 games these playoffs, with an absurd 30.7 points, 12.8 rebounds and 9.7 assists per game. And with capable shooters like Canada’s Jamal Murray all around him, doubling Jokic is a dangerous mission.
No, he’s never going to completely stop Jokic. But if Davis can limit him, with the task largely on his shoulders, and make the Nuggets’ offence run through other players more than it typically does, the Lakers will like their chances.
Los Angeles Lakers Burning Question — Does LeBron have enough left in the tank to reach an 11th NBA Finals?
Top to bottom, this is the best supporting cast that LeBron has ever had in his 20-year NBA career. This version of the Lakers may not have the top-end star talent that James had during his time with the Miami Heat, but depth wise it isn’t close.
Los Angeles has at least eight players that can be difference-makers on any given night.
Take for instance Game 4 against the Warriors, when Lakers guard Lonnie Walker almost single-handily won the game for L.A. with a 15-point explosion in the fourth quarter. It’s all the more incredible when you take into account that Walker barely saw the floor against the Memphis Grizzlies in Round 1.
It’s just a prime example of why this Lakers team is so dangerous.
James and Davis will usually lead the way, but Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura have all been the leading scorer in one of the Lakers’ eight playoff wins this post-season.
And James needs the help, as gone are the days when he can physically dominate a game from start to finish and carry a team to the NBA Finals on his back. At age 38, 40 minutes of 100 per cent effort on both ends of the floor is just not in the cards for him. Not at playoff intensity.
You can see it if you watched him closely this post-season. He picks and chooses when to use his energy. There are still five-to-seven-minute stretches when he looks like the LeBron of old. Whether that be barrelling through defenders like they don’t even exist, running down opponents for his signature chase-down blocks or even hustling out of bounds and jumping over chairs in the front row.
Physically, Father Time is slowly catching up to him. Albeit, much slower than it catches up to most athletes.
“I may have looked like I was conserving my energy but I was dead tired after every one of them games. Same with tonight,” LeBron said after the Lakers eliminated the Warriors in Game 6.
Exhausted physically he may be, but that doesn’t impact his basketball I.Q. which is still second to none.
Just take the Lakers’ series-clinching victory over the Warriors. James finished with 30 points, nine rebounds and nine assists. An impressive stat line, but nothing compared to the gaudy stat lines he used to put up in past playoff runs.
Yet his impact could be felt on nearly every play, especially in the second half. He knows who to get the ball to, what sets to run and most importantly, knows with this team he doesn’t have to do it all himself.
LeBron needs eight more wins to add a fifth title to his resume. He has the team to do it, but before it’s all said and done, he is going to need at least a few signature LeBron moments to push his squad over the top.
Does “The King” have enough left in the tank? The Nuggets will be the first to find out.
Series X-Factor: Lakers’ D’Angelo Russell
If the D’Angelo Russell experience was a roller coaster, you’d need to sign a 14-page waiver just to ride. It’s filled with so many ups and downs, only the bravest of souls would willingly choose to get on.
That’s probably how a lot of Lakers fans feel even at this moment.
One night, Russell can look like the best scorer on a team that includes the likes of future Hall of Famers in James and Davis.
The very next game, you cringe at some of the decisions he makes and he often ends up riding the bench in the clutch minutes.
No better example than Games 3 and 4 against the Warriors. Game 3, he goes five-of-eight from three for 21 points and often looked like the Lakers’ most dynamic playmaker on the offensive side of the ball.
Two nights later in Game 4, he shoots 10 per cent from the field and has four points in 31 minutes. Talk about your Jekyll and Hyde type of player.
Russell has always lacked consistency throughout his career, but there is no questioning his ability to put the ball in the basketball hoop.
When James and Davis are struggling to score, it’s usually Reaves and Russell who are looked to next.
We’d bet our bottom dollar that Russell won’t turn in four masterful performances against the Nuggets. But if he can give the Lakers two or three, it might just be enough to push his team over the hump.