15 strategies for picking a winning March Madness bracket

It’s that time of year again when office productivity goes down and office pool participation goes up. March Madness is here!

Picking a winner in the NCAA men's basketball tournament is especially difficult this year because no truly great team has separated itself from the pack.

There are also plenty of Canadian players to root for in the tournament, including Ryan Nembhard (Gonzaga), Will Riley (Illinois), Aden Holloway (Alabama) and Josh Omojafo (Robert Morris). With 20 players across all teams, Canada is well-represented.

But for those filling out brackets, it’s been a hard year to decipher who to pick to advance. Teams fluidly moved in and out of the top 25 all season, there were multiple major upsets in conference tournaments and some big stars were injured in the final weeks before tip-off.

Potential first-overall pick Cooper Flagg of Duke was hurt in the ACC tournament but is expected back, but there are key injuries to keep in mind such as those by Flagg's teammate Maliq Brown (shoulder), Keshon Gilbert of ISU (groin), J'Wan Roberts of Houston (ankle) and Grant Nelson of Alabama (leg).

There is generally no correlation between how much college basketball you watch, how much time you spend on your bracket and how you perform.

If you’re looking for a cheat sheet to help inform your educated guesses, here are the key figures and stats you should keep in mind when filling out your bracket:

When the East is in the house

There is a very simple way to eliminate half the field from championship contention. Every champion since 1997 has been from the eastern part of the United States.

Alarming Auburn

The No. 1 overall seed Tigers have lost three of their last four games. No team has ever lost three of its last four games entering the NCAA tournament and gone on to win the national championship.

In fact, it has been 14 years since a national champion lost its final two regular-season games and then made a run to the NCAA title and that was UConn in 2011. The Tigers have the most Quadrant 1 wins in the country, the most combined Quadrant 1 and 2 wins in the country, and rank No. 1 in all three of the résumé-based metrics the selection committee uses, but recency bias and history says stay away.

Dominant Duke

The most balanced team might be the Blue Devils. Duke became the first team in ACC history to lead the conference in scoring offence and defence. Duke boasts a top-five defensive and offensive efficiency in the nation. The last three teams to do that won the national championship.

Houston may have a problem at home

Many like Houston to make the final as the game will be played across the state in San Antonio. Proximity hasn’t been an accurate predictor over time. Just five teams reached the Final Four in their home state in the last 50 years. None have do so since Butler in 2010. The last team to win a title in its home state was UCLA, all the way back in 1975.

Gonzaga is consistently great

Gonzaga is playing in its 26th NCAA tournament. It has made nine straight Sweet 16s, so don’t be afraid to have it winning a few games and getting to the second weekend.

Don’t be conned by UConn

Last year, UConn became just the third repeat champion in the last 50 years. This year, it is trying to become the first team to three-peat in over 50 years since UCLA did it by winning seven consecutive titles from 1967-73. The only problem is this year the Huskies are not nearly as good and they are just the fifth national champion since 2010 to be seeded eighth or worse.

SEC Supremacy

When in doubt, pick a team from the SEC. The Southeastern Conference secured a record number of bids at 14, surpassing 11 bids by the Big East in 2011. The conference boasts two No. 1 seeds and two No. 2 seeds. The SEC dominated the SEC–ACC challenge earlier this year with a record of 14-2 versus one of the elite conferences. Four of the top six teams in the country are from the SEC. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Final Four has exclusively SEC teams in it.

Go chalk early

Go chalk in the early rounds. This isn’t a strategy without risk. A top-four seed has lost a first-round game in 14 of the last 15 tournaments. This is a strategy for mitigating risk. Since 2018, No. 1 seeds are 22-2, No. 2 seeds are 21-3 and No. 3 seeds are 22-2. Don’t overthink it, take the easy points early.

Don’t go chalk late

Don’t go too chalk. All four No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four just one time, in 2008. Add that to the fact that a No. 2 has not reached the title game since 2016.

Don't pick too many upsets

A No. 8 seed is the lowest to ever win the NCAA tournament, so use that as a guide when picking a champion.

Nine lives

If you are looking for an early upset, take a look at the No. 8 vs. No. 9 seed line. You’d think given the seed numbers this game is a toss-up but actually, No. 9 seeds are 16-8 versus No. 8 seeds since 2018.

10s are wild

The No. 10 seeds also bear fruit. Especially in bracket-scoring settings, where you get points for an upset. At least one No. 10 seed has beaten a No. 7 seed in each of the last 16 tournaments.

11 over 12

Much has been made of the dreaded No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup and how many upsets it garners but in recent years that's been a misnomer. Yes, in five of the last 10 tournaments multiple No. 5 seeds lost in the first round. But the No. 5 seeds are 16-8 against No. 12s since 2018. In fact, the No. 6 seeds have struggled versus 11s with a 12-12 record stalemate since 2018. An 11 seed has won a first-round game in every tournament since 2005. Most recently, NC State went to the Final Four as an 11 last year.

Double down on double digits

Once you’ve picked your upset, don’t get shy, keep going. Double-digit seeds made the Final Four in four of the last eight tournaments.

First Four are for real

Teams that had to play in the First Four just to get in the bracket have reached the Final Four twice. First Four teams reached the second round in 12 of 13 tournaments.