They don’t call it March Madness for nothing. It’s wild, it’s unpredictable, and boy is it fun to find action in the ups and downs of amateur basketball teams most of us know nothing about. Am I a college basketball expert? No. But I love betting on March Madness so much, I do my research. And I’m going to share it with you. It’s not so much gambling advice, just some information I’ve gathered.
And judging by the fact that an estimated $15.5 billion was bet on March Madness last year, you probably don’t mind taking a look.
Best Bet To Win The Championship: 1-Seeds Only
Sixty-three per cent of all champions have been top seeds, so chances are, Houston, UConn, Purdue or North Carolina will be cutting down the nets when all is said and done.
The dominant UConn Huskies (+360) come in as the top overall seed seeking to become the first repeat champs since the 2006-07 Florida Gators.
There’s a reason repeats rarely happen, but at +360, the odds are long enough to make betting the favourite a decent value play. The most common pick I’m seeing from experts is a UConn-Purdue final, which makes the Boilermakers (+700) my best value pick.
Led by Canadian behemoth Zach Edey, Purdue’s odds are likely depressed by memories of its stunning loss to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson last year. It’s tough to get that kind of stink off, but this is a different Purdue squad, less dependent on the plodding Edey, who, for all his talents and size, can be schemed out of games with the right gameplan and personnel.
Another little morsel: The only other 1-seed to lose in the first round, Virginia, came back the next year and won it all.
But if long odds are your thing, North Carolina (+1300) is your pick here. A true blue blood at odds that long is enticing.
Best Bet to Win the Championship: Everyone Else
In the history of this tournament, only three teams seeded lower than 4 have won it all, so I’m holding myself to 2-, 3- and 4-seeds here. My favourite long-odds pick is Creighton (+3000). It beat UConn pretty handily at home in February, and hung around against the Huskies on the road in January.
Star senior Baylor Scheierman didn’t perform well in either game, which speaks to how high this team’s ceiling is. It missed the Final Four by one shot last season, and returned most of that team. They’re also good insurance against my Purdue pick, as both teams sit in the Midwest Region.
Of course, if you want a blue blood with long odds, look no further than the Kentucky Wildcats (+2200). In true Cats fashion, they have two projected lottery picks (Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard) coming off the bench, with senior Antonio Reeves averaging 20 a game on near 50-40-90 shooting splits.
Coach Cal’s kids have the high-end talent to beat anyone.
Final Four Picks
Purdue (+165) and UConn (+105) feel like locks, but their Final Four odds are boring. I love Kentucky (+700) here for the same reason I like them as an upset championship pick. Houston (+140) has three very feisty mid-seeds in Duke, Wisconsin and Nebraska in its half of the South Region, and if it gets taken out early, I think it’s Kentucky’s region to win.
Saint Mary’s (+1000) is my Cinderella-ish upset pick here. It’s a mid-major (technically) and has overtaken Gonzaga as the darlings of the West Coast Conference, going 2-1 against the Bulldogs and winning the conference. It’s led by a dynamic scorer in Aiden Mahaney, but this is a versatile team with five players averaging over 10 points a game and one of the nation’s best defences.
The scary thing about picking the Gaels? They’re a 5-seed playing a terrifying 12-seed in Grand Canyon.
That Darn 12-Seed
It feels like there’s a 12 that beats a 5 every year, and this year I’m getting in on McNeese (+220) upsetting Gonzaga in the first round. Mark Few still hasn’t missed a tournament, but the Bulldogs came closer this year than ever before.
I can’t pick them because of my Saint Mary’s Final Four pick, but Grand Canyon (+190) is a very strong pick as well, though the odds are a little tight.
I also have my eye on 13-seed Samford (+240) to knock out Kansas in Round 1. The books seem to know something here, with the odds and spread (Kansas -7) more resembling a 12-5 matchup than 13-4. You can also get Samford at +850 to make the Sweet Sixteen. To do that, it would need to beat either McNeese or that shaky Gonzaga team in the second round. It feels doable to me.
The NCAA Women’s Basketball Championship
It speaks to how dominant Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks have been that South Carolina (-140) isn’t just the team with the best odds to win the women’s tournament, they’re legitimate betting favourites. In a field of 68 teams, that’s a rare feat. But this is a rare team.
In the last three years, the Gamecocks have won 103 of 106 games, with those three losses (including one in last year’s Final Four to Caitlin Clark’s Iowa team) coming by a combined seven points. They could become the 10th team to notch a perfect season, joining Baylor, Tennessee, Texas and UConn (six times!). I’m afraid to bet against them, but I will because -140 isn’t very mad, and it’s not called March Normal Basketball. It’s March Madness, dammit.
Iowa (+550) has women’s basketball’s next big star in Clark, while LSU (+750) has her primary rival in Angel Reese, plus five other players averaging double figure scoring. That includes Hailey Van Lith, who was the best player on an Elite Eight team last season before transferring from Louisville to LSU.
Those odds aren’t fun enough. Give me Southern California (+4000), with the longest odds of any 1-seed. JuJu Watkins (27 points per game) has Reese’s size with elite guard skills, and has the talent to be the best player on the floor in any matchup. If she can get hot and stay hot, the Trojans are a seriously undervalued top seed.
As always, remember, play safe and don’t chase.