This year’s edition of the men’s Final Four has a little bit of everything and a team for everyone.
You’ve got your “Blue Blood” (or “New Blood,” if you want to be picky) powerhouse in UConn, a top team with the top player in Purdue and Zach Edey, your Cinderella squad in N.C. State. Oh, and Alabama is also there. Wait, is this college football?
Past iterations of the NCAA Tournament have been a bit more to one extreme or another regarding chalkiness. In 2023, fourth-seeded UConn was the highest-ranked team in an improbable Final Four that had two five-seeds and a nine-seed. Meanwhile, in 2022, two-seed Villanova was the only non-Blue Blood squad, and though UNC was an eight-seed, its presence in the final quartet alongside Duke and Kansas was hardly a fresh sight.
Regardless of where you stand on the “I love upsets” to “I hate fun” spectrum, this weekend’s games should have more than enough to satisfy any customer.
Here’s a preview of the two Final Four games taking centre stage on Saturday.
(11) N.C. State Wolfpack vs. (1) Purdue Boilermakers – Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET / 3:09 p.m. PT
The Lowdown
N.C. State is what March is all about.
Despite going 9-11 in conference play in the regular season, the Wolfpack would win five games in five days in the ACC tournament and then smashed their way through March’s bracket, dismantling two-seed Marquette and four-seed Duke on the way to their first Final Four appearance since winning it all in 1983.
Though they might not be your typical small-program Cinderella story — they’re a two-time tournament winner and cut their teeth in the hot-blooded ACC — their run to where they are now is nothing if not a fairy tale.
Purdue, meanwhile, has looked like the powerhouse it’s designed to be behind the unstoppable force Zach Edey.
The Boilermakers steamrolled through the first two rounds past Grambling State and Utah State, showed their all-around scoring ability in a dominant win over Gonzaga, then funnelled everything through Edey for a game-breaking 40-point performance in a tight win over Tennessee in the Elite Eight.
The Canadian big man is having one of the greatest collegiate seasons of all time, averaging 25.0 points a game, the most in the country, while grabbing 12.2 boards and 2.2 blocks. He’s a lock to take home the Naismith Award for the second straight year, joining Ralph Sampson and Bill Walton as the only players to win it more than once.
Storyline to watch: Battle of the Bigs
David vs. Goliath is so B.C.; this battle of big men is a heavyweight bout between Goliath and an even bigger Goliath.
D.J. Burns has been a revelation in the tournament, subverting expectations by being exquisitely light on his feet despite his massive six-foot-nine, 275-pound frame.
His game against Duke in the Elite Eight was otherworldly, dominating Blue Devils big man Kyle Filipowski to the tune of 29 points on 13-for-19 from the field, and showcasing a soft touch on some mid-range jumpers and turnaround lefty hooks and push shots.
However, this will be his toughest matchup yet, as seven-foot-four, 285-pound Edey isn’t one to get bullied. His absurd seven-foot-10 wingspan and defensive positioning in the post have made him one of the most fearsome paint protectors in college, leading to the most defensive win shares in the Big Ten (2.4) and the third-highest defensive rating in the Big Ten (97.1).
On offence, Edey uses his enormous frame to get guys into foul trouble and turns matchups into wars of attrition.
If N.C. State wants Burns playing his best, they’ll likely have to send Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks at Edey on defence and on the boards. Should Edey get free rein to go at Burns, the Wolfpack big could get gassed, taking away from the finesse he shows on the offensive end.
X-Factor: N.C. State’s surprising perimeter defence
N.C. State isn’t known for its defence. It is ranked 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom and has the 176th-ranked defensive rating (103.7) while giving up the highest opposing effective field-goal percentage among the Final Four teams (49.5 per cent).
However, other than the first-round ACC Tournament game against Louisville, the Wolfpack has held opponents below their season-average marks from deep.
They held a Marquette team that shot 36.0 per cent from deep on the season to 4-for-31 and Duke, which shot 37.7 per cent to 5-for-20.
Purdue, despite Edey being the standout player, makes its money from beyond the arc, hitting at the second-best rate in the country at 40.6 per cent on 20.4 attempts per game.
Though they’ve shored up their inconsistencies from last season, if guys like Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones can’t find their rhythm, it will be a tall task for the Boilermakers. Good thing they’ve got the tallest player in the tournament, right?
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (1) UConn Huskies – Saturday 8:49 p.m. ET / 5:49 p.m. PT
The Lowdown
It’s been too easy for the UConn Huskies so far.
After steamrolling through Stetson and Northwestern in the first two rounds, they demolished fifth-seed San Diego State by 30 points and rode an absurd 30-0 run to dismantle three-seed Illinois by 25 points.
They sit as the top team in the country in adjusted efficiency margin per KenPom, coupling their top-ranked offence (126.7) with their fourth-ranked defence (91.5).
Centre Donovan Clingan has put a lid on the rim, Tristen Newton has taken a big step as a lead guard and transfer Cam Spencer has fit in seamlessly as their primary 3-point threat. With likely 2024 lottery pick Stephon Castle and floor-spacing forward Alex Karaban rounding out their starting five, there isn’t a more complete squad.
Alabama, meanwhile, has had to rally to get to its first-ever Final Four, taking down one-seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16 and longtime rival (in college football) Clemson in the Elite Eight.
The Crimson Tide have done it on the back of their high-flying offence that ranks third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (125.8), per KenPom, and first in points per game (90.6). They attempt the fourth-most 3-pointers per game (30.1), while hitting the second-most (11.2).
However, their defence has been highly suspect all year, as they rank 105th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and give up the seventh-most points per game in the country, with 81.1.
Storyline to watch: Is UConn inevitable?
It’s hard to imagine anything standing in the way of the first National Title repeat since the Florida Gators 2006-07.
UConn’s offence and defence rank among the best in the country and the Huskies’ fearsome fivesome is a match made in heaven. Their run through this year’s tournament has been a cakewalk.
Their next test comes in the form of an Alabama program not used to this sort of success, but a coach in Nate Oats who has turned the program around since taking over five years ago.
Though the Crimson Tide possess a similar make-up to that of the Fighting Illini the Huskies faced in the Elite Eight, the big thing separating Illinois and UConn was a disastrous 30-0 run that sapped every ounce of energy from the high-powered Big Ten squad. Those sorts of runs aren’t commonplace, and Alabama’s offence behind steady Mark Sears is more than capable of answering back when called upon.
They’ll need to improve on where Illinois went wrong. Luckily, it’s only up when the bar for improvement is scoring more than zero points in 52 real-time minutes.
X-Factor: Donovan Clingan
Donovan Clingan has been by far the best defender in the tournament this year.
He notched eight blocks against Northwestern in the second round and five blocks against Illinois and offensive star Terrence Shannon. According to ESPN Stats and Info, Illinois went 0-for-19 on shots contested by Clingan and scored only 14 points while he was on the floor, helping his Huskies to their 10th straight double-digit win in the tournament.
The sophomore big has taken a step on offence as well this season. His offensive rating has jumped from 119.7 to 135.0, fifth in the country, and his PER of 35.5 is the second-best in college behind only Edey.
To try to stop him, the Crimson Tide will likely use a combination of forwards Nick Pringle and Mohamed Wague and hope his 57.4 per cent mark from the charity stripe slows him down. Meanwhile, Oats could try to work with a more space-heavy offence by bringing in stretch forwards Grant Nelson and Stevenson, hoping that it forces Clingan to the perimeter and opens up the paint for guys like Sears.