10 Fantasy Football Thoughts: Saquon Barkley will be a draft-day steal

September 7, 2021, 11:49 AM

It’s finally here — the fantasy football season is upon us!

Every year after the Super Bowl, it feels like the football season is light years away, but when it comes back you feel rejuvenated. You don’t care what game you’re watching. It could be Houston taking on Jacksonville – which is going to be awful — but it doesn’t matter because it’s football.

My yearly tradition has been to re-watch The League before the season starts. It’s funny, and it has a fantasy football aspect to it. What more could you ask for?

The best part of the whole show is getting to see the players that were getting drafted at the beginning of each season and saying, “Remember that guy?” We can even do that with our own teams and predictions.

For me, last year I said Clyde Edwards-Helaire wouldn’t be the highest scoring rookie running back, and that it would be Jonathan Taylor. Bingo!

I also predicted that Dak Prescott would be the top scoring quarterback and that Joe Burrow would break Andrew Luck’s rookie passing yards record and the rookie touchdown record, and both players got hurt after hot starts. A shame.

Then I made some really dumb predictions.

I said Aaron Rodgers would finish outside the top 12 quarterbacks and DeAndre Hopkins wouldn’t live up to the hype in Arizona.

Oh, Matt.

You have hits and you have misses — that’s the beauty of fantasy football.

Now let’s have some fun!

(All ADP information courtesy of Fantasy Pros.)

1. The elite fantasy QB gap narrows further

According to FantasyData.com, the gap from QB1 (Josh Allen) to QB10 (Lamar Jackson) was about 64 points – which works out to four points per game. This season, that trend will not only continue but close significantly. The NFL wants the game to be catered to the offensive side of the ball, and quarterback stats will be the biggest benefactor. I believe that the difference between QB1 and QB14 will be 70 points (the difference last season was 129 points).

But why is this so significant?

What it means is that, despite the quarterback position being the most important in all of sports, it won’t be the most important position in fantasy. The ability to grab quarterbacks later and later in drafts while still being able to maintain borderline “elite” numbers means that you can fill out your roster with better skill-position players earlier in the draft.

We are already seeing that trend with players like Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill and Jalen Hurts all going in the sixth round or later – any of whom could finish in the top five in fantasy scoring this season.

In superflex or two-QB leagues, the quarterbacks will always reign supreme, but in single-QB redraft leagues, fantasy managers are waiting longer and longer to grab their guy, and it still could pay off in a big way.

2. Saquon Barkley finishes as the RB1

Barkley is currently being drafted as the ninth running back off the board.

Pardon me?

Even I had to re-read that.

Yes, the biggest threat to Christian McCaffrey’s throne as the RB1 is going off the board as the ninth running back.

Of course, there is concern about him coming off another serious injury, but we know how electric this guy can be. He has 23 touchdowns in 31 career games, and in his rookie year (his only full season) he compiled over 2,000 all-purpose yards on a bad Giants team. In his sophomore season he added over 1,400 total yards in just 13 games.

Some will worry about his workload early in the season, but I certainly will not be one of them. He’s going to be back in full swing within the first few weeks and when he does get back there, it’s wheels up.

The Giants have playmakers all over the field, which is a far cry from what they had in Barkley’s first two seasons in the league. And while the quarterback play may or not be better, Barkley won’t have to face defences being the only show in town, which should open up some lanes.

And let’s not forget that there isn’t much competition behind him, unless you’re worried about Devontae Booker — and if you are, I can’t help you there.

3. Kyle Pitts IS that generational talent people have been talking about

This may not be “hot takey,” but Pitts is absolutely going to live up to the billing and be worthy of his ADP.

There have been plenty of people who believe in the talent, but there have also been plenty that follow the trend that rookie tight ends just don’t produce enough for fantasy purposes. And while I totally understand it, that doesn’t change my mind that Kyle Pitts is just different.

Here’s a way to help you understand why he’s going to have a season for the ages – don’t think of him as just a tight end. He’s going to be used all over the field, the Falcons are going to find a way to get him the ball as many times as possible, and he’s a physical mismatch at six foot-six, 245 pounds and running a 4.49.

Who is going to cover this guy?

Only one rookie tight end in NFL history has reached the 1,000-yard plateau, and it was Mike Ditka back in 1961 — and he did that in only 14 games. You mean to tell me that Kyle Pitts can’t reach those numbers and even surpass them in a 17-game season (16 for fantasy purposes, of course)?

Pitts walks into an offence with an already established alpha wide receiver in Calvin Ridley, a suspect running game and 195 available targets. And for those that keep telling me that Russell Gage is going to be “that” guy, let’s not forget that he had 109 targets last season, so even if we give him another 30, there’s plenty of scraps for Pitts.

I think Pitts is a lock to finish in the top four fantasy tight ends with the likes of Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle if they all stay healthy.

Be sure to keep an eye on Kyle Pitts week in and week out, because we could see something that we’ve never seen before.

4. Justin Fields and Trey Lance are league winners

How can they be league winners if they aren’t starters at the beginning of the year?

Quite simple — they’ll show up when it matters.

You’re not selecting Fields or Lance with the intention that they are going to be starters at the beginning of the season, but stashing them for what they are going to be when it matters to you – right at playoff time.

These quarterbacks will offer plenty with their arms, but where they can separate themselves is what they can do with their legs — and that element is well documented.

Here’s where the bold prediction comes in:

Both Fields and Lance will finish in the top 10 in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks with at least eight starts. I envision that Fields is starting by Week 4 at the latest, and Lance is at the helm by Week 7. Both the Bears and 49ers know that if they’re going to have any sustained success this season that it will be with their two rookies making plays.

We know what Andy Dalton and Jimmy Garoppolo are, so we can say without question that both of their teams know what they are as well — namely, not as good as Justin Fields and Trey Lance.

Draft them, stash them and — when it’s time to start them — enjoy the fruits of your labour.

5. This season will be the most unpredictable wide receiver season we have seen

When I sat down to do my season-long rankings, I thought wide receiver was going to be an easy one — and that couldn’t have been further from the truth.

Players like Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett, Brandin Cooks and Marvin Jones all finished as a WR2 or better last season and only one cracked the top 24 this season for me (Lockett). The next wave of players such as Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Tee Higgins, Cooper Kupp and a plethora of others should work their way into that conversation.

I’ve made the joke on Twitter that there are about 100 players who could finish as a WR3 this season and while it was obviously tongue in cheek, it certainly does feel like it.

We have seen an influx of talent at that position over the past five years. This year’s NFL Draft class included DeVonta Smith, Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle, among others, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg when we see the likes of Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Claypool, Deebo Samuel, Laviska Shenault and others arrive on the scene.

After perusing my rankings, I couldn’t tell you how many times I said, “I have that guy too low,” only to realize that I couldn’t put him any higher on the list because of the talent in front of him. I tried desperately to move Mike Williams up because of all the coachspeak that has surrounded him this off-season, but could I really put him ahead of Corey Davis, who looks like he already has a great rapport with Zach Wilson, or DeVonta Smith, who is really the only receiver of significance in Philadelphia? Not possible!

This is why the “zero-WR” strategy could pay off for you in your drafts (and it’s also an approach that I’ve taken). There are just so many talented wideouts that I really could see the production spread out at a rate that we’ve never seen before.

6. My “Not Worried” Players List

In my home dynasty league chat, it’s absolutely relentless. You really can’t say anything without being chastised or called out. Bets are made, feelings are hurt and the bravado is always at an all-time high.

It’s why we love fantasy football.

One of the things that has been pointed out numerous times is that I’m #notworried when it comes to certain players. So here are some players that I’m not worried about despite some negativity surrounding them heading into the season.

Tyler Boyd: He’s a great asset to have in PPR formats because he will primarily work out of the slot with Ja’Marr Chase in town playing opposite of Tee Higgins. Boyd was a borderline WR1 with Joe Burrow last season before the latter went down with injury. Boyd led the team in red zone targets and was tied for the team lead with targets inside the 10 with A.J. Green. Do we think he’s just going to disappear because Chase is there?

Juju Smith-Schuster: Another great PPR asset in what is supposed to be a clustered wide receiver room in Pittsburgh. Chase Claypool is going to get a ton of hype and Diontae Johnson — despite his battle with the drops last year — will as well. Poor Juju right? Nope. He led the team in red zone targets with 17 and caught 14 of them for six touchdowns. And for those worried that Najee Harris is going to take short passing work away, keep in mind that running backs occupied 70 targets last season, including 43 for James Conner. Not worried.

Cole Beasley: I’m not here to tell you how to feel about Cole Beasley’s personal decisions. I’m just here to give you the facts about his fantasy production. He finished as the WR27 last year and finished just shy of the 1,000-yard receiving mark in 15 games. He had five 100-yard performances and eight games with 50 or more receiving yards while establishing himself as the security blanket for Josh Allen.

Dak Prescott: He lit the fantasy world on fire before his ankle injury cost him the season. This year, it’s a shoulder issue that seems to be scaring people away. He has the weapons to be a great fantasy asset yet again and really could challenge for that QB1 spot (which I predicted he would last year before the season started).

Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard is a pretty good skill position group, right? The Cowboys defence has improved from last year because it probably couldn’t have gotten worse, but they’re still not in the upper echelon right now. That means Dallas should still find themselves in a few shootouts – which is exactly what you want for your starting QB.

7. Mac Jones will be the highest-scoring rookie quarterback

While Lance and Fields, mentioned above, will finish higher in fantasy points per game, they won’t play enough games to take the overall season points title. And though Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are superior talents to Mac Jones among rookie quarterbacks starting Week 1, they both don’t have what Jones has. No, it isn’t the dad bod – it’s a very good offensive line.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Patriots have the third-best offensive line in the league while the Jets’ and Jaguars’ group rank 22nd and 23rd. This means better protection, being able to sit in the pocket as the receivers and tight ends run their routes and not having to constantly run for your life having to make awkward throws or toss up prayers in desperation so you don’t get clobbered by an oncoming defender. You know what else happens when you running around trying to make plays? You make mistakes like fumble or throw interceptions.

Jones is set up in an offence that will likely look similar to one we saw with Tom Brady in the same position. Lots of short, quick throws that aren’t dangerous to set up deep shots. It’s the Belichick way, isn’t it? Jones is an accurate passer, and in that type of offence my guess is that the interception numbers will be lower than those of Lawrence or Wilson.

The Patriots have also surrounded him with security blankets in tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who excelled once inserted into the lineup last season from Week 11 onwards.

Long-term, I think that Mac Jones has the lowest fantasy ceiling among these rookie quarterbacks, but for this year, he looks to be in a great position to finish as a mid-range QB2.

8. Tom Brady has three top-24 wide receivers

This is bold, even by my standards – but hey, in the words of Michael Keaton in the first Batman movie, “You wanna get nuts? C’mon! Let’s get nuts!”

From Week 9 to Week 17, Mike Evans (WR11), Chris Godwin (WR17) and Antonio Brown (WR22) were all heavily used in the passing game, exactly what Tom Brady wanted.

And to be clear, Brown walked off the street, sort of learned the playbook and still managed to finish as a back-end WR2 in that stretch. Now he’s had a full off-season to get familiar with the offence and work with Brady. This should be concerning to opposing defences.

We know that Evans and Godwin are great receivers, so the only problem that may arise here is which player is relevant each week. But overall, this should be a receiving core that you want to be a part of.

The running backs will get their work in the passing game, but let’s face it — when you have three receivers of this calibre, you want to air it out. Imagine trying to game plan for Tampa. Who do you want to cover this week? Who are you going to have burn you this week? No thanks.

This has all the makings of a legendary season from Tom Brady, and it could be his best ever.

9. Robert Woods is the Rams WR to roster, not Cooper Kupp

I’ve been a big proponent of Woods since he was catching passes at USC and then was drafted by the Bills back in 2013. And, as you very well know, he’s a great wide receiver who has put up very good seasons with the mediocre Jared Goff as his quarterback.

Now he gets a guy that can really sling it in Matthew Stafford.

Woods is as efficient as they come in fantasy football, and all he’s ever really needed was an increase in his touchdown totals to be considered among the elite. He has at least 129 targets, a catch percentage of at least 64%, 86 or more catches, and at least 936 yards in each of the last three seasons, but he has only 14 receiving touchdowns in that time frame.

Stafford has averaged 27 touchdowns in every full season he’s played, and could be the perfect pairing for Woods. We’re going to see what Sean McVay can do with a gunslinger at quarterback and, that will only benefit Woods.

10. The Chiefs’ offence will still not support another fantasy relevant WR besides Tyreek Hill

Patrick Mahomes.

Travis Kelce.

Tyreek Hill.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

That’s it. That’s the list.

Those are the season-long fantasy-relevant players in this Chiefs offence. Sure, guys like Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle and DeMarcus Robinson might have a good week sprinkled in here or there, but you won’t be able to trust any of them in your lineup on a weekly basis unless there is an injury.

The best wide receiver fantasy finish for a Chiefs player not named Tyreek Hill since Patrick Mahomes played in a full season was Sammy Watkins in 2019, when he finished WR50 in 14 games. It was also the same season where Hill missed four games.

This offence will continue to be run the same way — through Kelce and Hill, and giving some quality touches to Edwards-Helaire. They’ve had so much success, so why change it?

In other words, it’s time for us to stop trying to will the Chiefs WR2 (whoever that may be) into fantasy relevance because it just isn’t happening.

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