As NFL bettors trudge through the weekly grind of picking spreads and totals, it’s usually helpful to rely on more than merely the eye test and gut instinct, so here are a few early betting trends to note as we are officially one-third the way through the 2023 regular season.
Home and road teams have essentially split games right down the middle through six weeks, with home teams going 47-46 overall, although road teams are 47-41-5 against the spread (ATS) and covering 53.4 per cent of games overall.
Road favourites have the highest winning percentage ATS, at 58.3 per cent (21-15-2), which is exactly what we saw in the final Week 6 game after Dallas beat the Chargers in L.A. by a field goal when favoured by 1.5 points.
Recent years have been kind to those who favour the under when it comes to totals, and that remains steady this season, with 62.8 per cent of games that end in regulation finishing under the listed pre-game total.
On the various futures markets, suffice it to say plenty has changed since training camp, and it is reflected in the betting odds. With all that in mind, here are the latest Super Bowl odds, plus MVP and other award frontrunners, and more.
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SUPER BOWL LVIII ODDS
THE FAVOURITES
San Francisco 49ers +425 (pre-season odds: +1000)
Kansas City Chiefs +500 (pre-season odds: +600)
Philadelphia Eagles +700 (pre-season odds: +750)
Buffalo Bills +900 (pre-season odds: +900)
Miami Dolphins +900 (pre-season odds: +2200)
Dallas Cowboys +1000 (pre-season odds: +1400)
Many of the projected Super Bowl contenders sit at or near the top of the standings. A halfa dozen teams have odds 10/1 or shorter to win it all. If you hold a 49ers ticket, it has gained in value, while the Chiefs, Eagles and Bills are all where we figured they’d be.
There have been a handful of notable risers and fallers over the first six weeks, and none of the risers have made as much noise as the Miami Dolphins. That team’s odds have dropped from 22/1 to now sit 9/1, just like their AFC East rivals in Buffalo.
DON’T COUNT THEM OUT
Baltimore Ravens +1400 (pre-season odds: +1800)
Detroit Lions +1600 (pre-season odds: +2200)
Jacksonville Jaguars +2200 (pre-season odds: +2800)
Cincinnati Bengals +2200 (pre-season odds: +1100)
Cleveland Browns +2500 (pre-season odds: +3300)
These five teams above have appealing value. Cincinnati has lost plenty of value, so if you were on the Bengals before Week 1, you’re not loving their 3-3 start, but them and their cross-state rivals in Cleveland could be handfuls for opposing teams down the stretch. The Browns are coming off an upset of the 49ers and haven’t completely crumbled after losing Nick Chubb and Jack Conklin long-term. Deshaun Watson is on the verge of returning after missing the past two weeks with a shoulder injury and Cleveland’s defence has a claim to being the top unit in the NFL.
LONG-SHOTS AND ‘MAYBE NEXT YEAR‘ TEAMS
Los Angeles Chargers +3300 (pre-season odds: +2500)
Seattle Seahawks +4000 (pre-season odds: +2800)
New Orleans Saints +5000 (pre-season odds: +4000)
Minnesota Vikings +6600 (pre-season odds: +4000)
Pittsburgh Steelers +6600 (pre-season odds: +4000)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6600 (pre-season odds: +12500)
Green Bay Packers +8000 (pre-season odds: +6000)
Atlanta Falcons +8000 (pre-season odds: +6000)
Los Angeles Rams +8000 (pre-season odds: +8000)
New York Jets +8000 (pre-season odds: +1600)
Tennessee Titans +10000 (pre-season odds: +6600)
Las Vegas Raiders +10000 (pre-season odds: +8000)
Houston Texans +10000 (pre-season odds: +17500)
Washington Commanders +12500 (pre-season odds: +6600)
Indianapolis Colts +15000 (pre-season odds: +12500)
Denver Broncos +25000 (pre-season odds: +4000)
New York Giants +25000 (pre-season odds: +5000)
New England Patriots +30000 (pre-season odds: +6600)
Chicago Bears +40000 (pre-season odds: +6000)
Arizona Cardinals +50000 (pre-season odds: +25000)
Carolina Panthers +75000 (pre-season odds: +6600)
It’s no secret the Jets have lost the most value on this market after Aaron Rodgers went down a few plays into his New York tenure. Can that defence carry the Jets to a miracle run in a division that boasts two top-five Super Bowl contenders?
The Rams, Steelers and Bucs have also punched above their weight relative to expectations, but can they keep up with the best teams in their respective divisions? That’s the real question.
UPDATED MVP FRONTRUNNERS
Tua Tagovailoa +350 (pre-season odds: +2200)
Patrick Mahomes +400 (pre-season odds: +600)
Josh Allen +700 (pre-season odds: +850)
Jalen Hurts +750 (pre-season odds: +1100)
Brock Purdy +900 (pre-season odds: +4000)
Lamar Jackson +1600 (pre-season odds: +1500)
Christian McCaffrey +1800 (pre-season odds: +8000)
Trevor Lawrence +2000 (pre-season odds: +1500)
Jared Goff +2000 (pre-season odds: +2500)
Justin Herbert +2500 (pre-season odds: +1200)
Joe Burrow +2800 (pre-season odds: +750)
Dak Prescott +2800 (pre-season odds: +2000)
Matthew Stafford 5000 (pre-season odds: +6000)
These are all the MVP contenders listed at 50/1 or shorter. Tagovailoa and Purdy look like the best pre-season value bets, followed closely by Purdy’s teammate.
McCaffrey is looking to become the first non-QB to be named MVP since Adrian Peterson, in 2012. Currently, he and Tyreek Hill (+6000) represent the best chance, although theoretically it would be difficult to envision a wide receiver winning MVP ahead of the quarterback throwing him the passes.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Hill (+150) and McCaffrey (+200) are the clear frontrunners for this award, which usually goes to a skill position opposed to a QB. Ja’Marr Chase (+1800) and Stefon Diggs (+2000) have the next-shortest odds.
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
With three wins and a couple franchise and NFL rookie records already to his name, C.J. Stroud is on his way to winning this award as a -140 favourite. The Texans quarterback is ahead of Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (+450) and Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (+550). Vikings WR Jordan Addison’s odds have remained steady (+1600) and he could see a value bump with Justin Jefferson out of Minnesota’s lineup. Zay Flowers (+2000) of the Ravens is developing nice chemistry with Lamar Jackson, and Detroit’s Sam LaPorta (+4000) is the rookie tight end impressing oddsmakers the most.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
It is essentially a three-horse race for top defensive honours, with pre-season frontrunners Micah Parsons (+175), T.J. Watt (+300) and Myles Garrett (+350) leading the way ahead of Aiden Hutchinson (+1200), Fred Warner (+1600), Nick Bosa (+150), Chris Jones (+2500) and others with odds longer than 30/1.
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Eagles first-round pick Jalen Carter was the pre-season favourite to win DROY and he has done nothing to suggest oddsmakers were wrong. He’s a chalky -150 to win the award ahead of Seahawks defensive back Devon Witherspoon (+275), Houston edge rusher Will Anderson (+1000) and Lions safety Brian Branch (+1600), all of whom have also impressed early in their pro careers.
COACH OF THE YEAR
It’s little surprise seeing Detroit’s Dan Campbell (+250), Miami’s Mike McDaniel (+300) and San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan (+900) leading the way in this category since each coach’s team is off to a 5-1 start. Meanwhile, Houston’s DeMeco Ryans (+1,600) and the Jets’ Robert Saleh (+1,600) are gaining attention for their teams outperforming expectations early in the season.
BEST REGULAR-SEASON RECORD
San Francisco 49ers +225 | Kansas City Chiefs +300 | Philadelphia Eagles +650 | Miami Dolphins +650 | Detroit Lions +750
It makes sense the five 5-1 teams have the best odds here before a steep drop-off to the 4-2 Bills and 4-2 Cowboys, both at +1800. As we saw in the 49ers loss to the Browns on Sunday, all it takes is a couple key injuries and/or some inclement weather for underdogs to book their ticket to upset city. The 49ers are blessed with one of the easier strengths of schedule.
WORST REGULAR-SEASON RECORD
Carolina Panthers +230 | Arizona Cardinals +325 | Chicago Bears +500 | New York Giants +700 | Denver Broncos +800 | New England Patriots +800
Bears fans will be paying extra attention to this prop category since they hold Carolina’s 2024 first-round picks in addition to their own. If the season ended today, Chicago would have the No. 1 (Carolina’s) and No. 2 (their own) overall selections.
PROP WATCH: MOST RECEIVING YARDS
With Justin Jefferson on IR, this prop bet category has become Tyreek Hill’s race to lose — and we all know the Dolphins speedster doesn’t lose many races. Hill is a -125 favourite to finish with the most receiving yards. He has 814 yards in six games, an average of 135.7 yards per outing, which puts him on pace for an NFL-record 2,306 yards. Hill said before the season that he aimed and even expected to become the first player in NFL history with more than 2,000 receiving yards in a single season. Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown (+900), Buffalo’s Diggs (+1000), Cincinnati’s Chase (+1000) and L.A.’s Keen Allen (+1800) are the only WRs expected to potentially challenge Hill for that title.
(Betting trends via Covers; betting odds via Bet365 as of Tuesday and subject to change.)