10 Fantasy Football Thoughts: Beware the Week 1 overreactions

Okay, football fans. Breathe. You got through Week 1.

After you’ve taken that deep breath, take another and try and temper your overreactions from a somewhat weird first week of the season.

No, Aaron Rodgers did not suddenly become a bad quarterback. Yes, the Packers’ offence will be fine. No, Jared Goff isn’t a weekly fantasy starter. Derrick Henry didn’t become Bishop Sankey (remember him?) and you don’t need to be discouraged that Chester Rogers was the Titans’ leading receiver Sunday against the Cardinals.

Every year around this time, people get bombastic in their predictions and go to the extreme because of one week. Don’t be that person. Be better than that.

Having said all that, if there are people in your leagues that are worried about any of the above mentioned, seek them out, butter them up, and trade for these studs – because the window to acquire them will probably shut after Week 2.

Fantasy football is weird on the best of days, so you might as well embrace it.

(All weekly rankings courtesy of Fantasy Data)

1. The #NotWorried List

Lots of things can go wrong when you don’t get many pre-season reps – we see it happen year after year. Let’s dive into this week’s members of the #NotWorried list:

Aaron Rodgers: The conspiracy theory circulating that Rodgers threw the first game to stick it to management is incredible. I don’t even want to get into it any further – that’s how ridiculous it is.

There’s no questioning that Rodgers didn’t look good in his debut, but it wasn’t just him. The whole offence looked out of sync: the running game never got going, receivers didn’t create much separation off the line of scrimmage and maybe, just maybe, we need to give credit to the Saints’ defence, which played great. Rodgers has a get-right game Monday night against the Lions, a team that just gave up 41 points to the 49ers.

Derrick Henry: He’s allowed to have one bad game, isn’t he?

Henry finished the season-opening loss to Arizona with 17 carries for 58 yards and added three catches for 19 yards. Arizona’s offence, combined with the success of a much-improved defence, basically took Henry out of the game early. Not a single thing worked for the Titans’ offence on Sunday, so needless to say, I’m not reading too much into a bad Week 1 performance.

Austin Ekeler: Zero targets for one of the premier pass-catching running backs doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. Having said that, it would be way more concerning from a fantasy perspective if someone else was getting Ekeler’s targets out of the backfield on Sunday.

Do you know how many running backs garnered targets in L.A.’s win over Washington?

One. Justin Jackson. End of list.

You’re not going to be able to succeed every week by not getting Ekeler into space and letting him do his thing. It’ll happen, just be patient.

2. Antonio Brown is going to be great once again

Brown was one of the players I was very bullish on heading into this season, especially considering he had a great opportunity to smash his ADP (drafted around WR40) in an offence built on Tom Brady’s arm. Brown did not disappoint in Week 1, registering five catches for 121 yards and a touchdown on seven targets.

What’s more impressive is that he did this kind of damage while only playing 65 per cent of the offensive snaps compared to 98 per cent for Chris Godwin and 94 per cent for Mike Evans.

Brown was WR22 from Weeks 9-17 last year after joining Tampa Bay mid-season. He remains one of the premier wide receiver talents in the game and gets to play with the greatest quarterback of all time. That is a recipe for success.

That, and the fact that Brown and the Bucs get to play the Falcons this coming week… we know how awful Atlanta’s defence looked in their first game.

3. The Lions aren’t good, and that’s great for fantasy

Teams with bad defence can be extremely entertaining to watch, especially when there are viable fantasy options on the other side of the ball. The Lions might actually be must-watch every week because they look like fantasy gold for all involved.

In Week 1 against San Francisco, Jared Goff was a high-end QB1. T.J. Hockenson was a high-end TE1. Both Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift were high-end RB1s. This isn’t going to happen every week, but if the Lions’ defence continues to struggle, they’re going to have to pile up the points just to stay in games.

Goff isn’t the worst quarterback in the league, but I don’t anticipate him being able to keep up that kind of pace. I do believe that he will finish as a mid-range QB2; as a matchup-based streamer, he could be a good start.

Hockenson is a stud, but you probably already knew that. He’s also the only viable pass-catcher who isn’t a running back on this team. His 10 targets on Sunday were second only to Swift’s 11. On a team that is going to need to throw the ball a lot, there’s no reason to believe that he won’t see 140 targets if he’s healthy.

Considering the lack of receiving talent on this team, the running back usage is key. Between the two backs, they had 36 touches – 19 for Swift (eight catches, 11 carries) and 17 for Williams (eight catches, nine carries) – and combined for 214 yards and two touchdowns.

4. Getting away from Adam Gase really does make you better!

I realize it was against the Jets, but Sam Darnold actually looked impressive against his former team on Sunday. His first half was excellent, and while he wasn’t called upon to throw a lot in the second with the Panthers up big, he finished with 24 completions on 35 attempts for 279 yards and one touchdown, plus another on the ground.

There’s a lot to like about his situation in Carolina. The wide receivers are very viable (D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall Jr.) but the best playmaker in Carolina is, of course, Christian McCaffrey.

Duh. But hear me out: McCaffrey gives quarterbacks a ton of easy yards. Just dump it off to him out of the backfield and he turns four air yards into an extra 15.

Things will get tougher for Darnold next week against a Saints defence that put on a clinic against the Packers, but then the schedule open up a little bit with matchups against Houston, Dallas, Philadelphia, Minnesota, the New York Giants and Atlanta. It could be a great stretch of fantasy success for Darnold. Once he becomes even more comfortable in this offence under Matt Rhule and Joe Brady, we could actually see the player everyone thought the Jets were getting when they drafted him.

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5. The Rookie QB Report

We’ve heard about this QB class a ton and this weekend they were on display (some more than others). For those keeping score at home, no rookie starter won his debut.

Trevor Lawrence: It should have been a cakewalk. It’s the Houston Texans. They won’t win a game.

Oops! I guess this isn’t Clemson anymore.

Lawrence completed 54.9 per cent of his passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns to go along with three interceptions in his first NFL start. If you played in a league where interceptions are punitive, then he hampered your lineup, regardless of the yardage and touchdown totals. He will get better, but so will the competition. Proceed with caution, because the next two games are against the Broncos and Cardinals – two teams with some pretty good pass rushers.

Zach Wilson: Things didn’t start out well for Wilson, who completed just one of his first six pass attempts as a Jet, but there was a bit of an improvement as the game went on and he needed to start slinging it all over the field. He finished with 258 passing yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He’s clearly built some nice chemistry with free agent Corey Davis, but slow your expectations going forward – especially with starting left tackle Mekhi Becton out for a bit. With the Patriots and Broncos on the docket in the next two games, it’s going to be tough sledding for the BYU product.

Mac Jones: The first play from scrimmage was an absolute disaster, but it certainly didn’t set the table for the rest of the game. As expected, Jones ran a similar offence to the one we saw with Tom Brady at the helm (relax, he’s not Tom Brady) with a lot of play action, short-yardage passes and dump-offs to running backs, and was efficient. He completed 74.4 per cent of his throws for 281 yards and one touchdown, and when called upon, made some nice deep throws.

With the Jets on the calendar this Sunday, Jones could be a very good streamer against a defence that leaves much to be desired. But beware: a matchup against the Saints in a couple of weeks might warrant a fantasy benching.

Justin Fields: The former Ohio State quarterback made a couple of cameo appearances, including a touchdown on a read-option. It’s only a matter of time before the Bears realize that Fields allows them to expand the playbook and gives them the best chance to win. Do we really need to overthink this?

Trey Lance: Like Fields, Lance was used sparingly but enough for him to throw a touchdown pass to Trent Sherfield, taking away some fantasy points from Jimmy Garoppolo. Lance remains a bench stash, but could quickly become a prominent fantasy asset if Garoppolo struggles or gets hurt before season’s end.

6. Who steps up with Jerry Jeudy out?

A high-ankle sprain will keep Jeudy on the shelf for at least half the season, so someone is going to need to step up in his place in Denver.

Courtland Sutton is the easy candidate, but he’s rostered in fantasy leagues everywhere and is coming off an injury. He saw the most snaps of any Broncos wideout on Sunday, but only mustered one catch for 14 yards on three targets. He’s going to take some time to get back into the swing of things.

The two players I’m looking at that should step up are Noah Fant and Tim Patrick. Patrick played 70 per cent of snaps in New York on Sunday and brought in all four of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. He’s proven in the past to be a very good receiver and even had three 100-yard receiving games last year.

Fant is an easy choice to pick up Jeudy’s touches, especially in the slot considering his yards-after-catch ability. He reeled in six of his eight targets for 62 yards against the Giants and finally looked healthy after a tough 2020.

For those clamouring for some K.J. Hamler love, you’ve come to the wrong place. He only played 36 per cent of Sunday’s snaps and had an egregious drop on what should have been an easy touchdown. He’s going to have boom games, but I’ll take the consistency of Fant and Patrick before I go anywhere near Hamler.

7. They don’t call him ‘Famous Jameis’ for nothing

When we’ve talked about Winston’s play in the past, it was often for the wrong reasons – like, say, throwing 30 interceptions in a season.

But this weekend, Famous Jameis had everyone talking – and for good reason – with a performance against Green Bay that was about as efficient as you could possibly ask for. The Saints’ new starter set an NFL record for the most touchdowns thrown in a game (five) with the least amount of passing yards (148). He completed 14 of 20 passes, meaning he had a touchdown on 35 per cent of his completions. Let that sink in for a minute.

While we know that is absolutely not sustainable and that Winston has generally been an accumulator of stats rather than an efficient thrower of the ball, we did see him look very comfortable in the Saints’ offence. He didn’t have all that much to work with outside of Alvin Kamara, who wasn’t really a factor in the passing game. There could be a real opportunity here for Winston to be a viable fantasy quarterback that gives you a handful of QB1 weeks. He’s not exactly running into a murderers’ row of defences in the coming weeks, either, so go ahead with that (cautious) optimism that his success can continue going forward.

8. Jalen Hurts was great, but let’s wait to anoint him the next great dual-threat

You probably couldn’t have asked for a better performance from Hurts, who finished as the QB5 on the week against a porous Falcons defence. He completed 77.1 per cent of his passes for 264 yards and three touchdowns and ran for an additional 62 yards.

Those are the kind of dual-threat numbers that, if maintained over the course of a season, would place him among the elite.

The Eagles’ schedule is very interesting over the next five weeks, with some good defences sprinkled in: the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Panthers and Buccaneers round out Hurts’ next five opponents.

I’m not saying he’s not going to be a great fantasy asset for you to have, but let’s see how the next few weeks play out before we crown him king.

9. Speaking of anointing fantasy QB kings…

Kyler Murray was incredible against the Titans on Sunday, lighting them up for 289 yards through the air with four touchdown passes while adding 20 rushing yards and a score. We’ve heard so much about how the Arizona offence should function with Kliff Kingsbury as its “brilliant offensive mind” but up until this point, we hadn’t seen it.

That seems to have changed.

The offence looked great with Murray as its catalyst, three players putting up 68-plus receiving yards and Chase Edmonds going over 100 total yards. DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk grabbed two touchdowns each and the latter looks like the player we’ve been waiting for to be second fiddle to Hopkins in this receiving corps.

Another potential contributor to Murray’s success is the strength of the defence – particularly, what kind of field position they’re going to be able to give him.

We all knew Murray was great — let’s anoint him the fantasy QB1 already, okay?

10. The Weekly “Mike Tolbert Vulture Awards”

Had to bring this back this season, as it’s easily my favourite part of this weekly column. There’s nothing worse for your team than when a non-viable fantasy player puts up a touchdown in place of one of your guys… and there’s nothing funnier than when it happens to someone else.

Here are this week’s winners:

Justin Fields: Nobody was starting Fields for obvious reasons, but if you were starting Andy Dalton (what did you do wrong if you were doing that?) or David Montgomery, then his one carry for three yards and a touchdown was not helpful to your score line. He also completed both of his passes for 10 yards.

Trey Lance & Trent Sherfield: The double-vulture! I don’t think I’ve ever seen it. Both Lance and Sherfield had some great connections in the pre-season, but nobody was starting either guy this past week. So, of course, they connect on a five-yard touchdown pitch and catch. It was Lance’s only throw of the game and one of two catches for Sherfield. Can’t make this stuff up!

Chris Manhertz: Known for his blocking and not for his hands, the Jaguars tight end will be forever known as the player who caught Trevor Lawrence’s first-ever touchdown pass in the NFL. The 22-yard TD was the veteran’s only catch on the day.

JaMychal Hasty: If Raheem Mostert doesn’t get hurt, maybe this doesn’t happen, but Hasty’s only carry went for three yards and a score. He also added one catch for 15 yards. You could probably make the argument that Elijah Mitchell was the real vulture on the day, but he had a great game so we don’t want to take that away from him.

Albert Okwuegbunam: The second-year tight end reeled in a four-yard touchdown pass from Teddy Bridgewater and added another two for 12 yards. We’ve heard a lot about Albert O (as he is affectionately known) but c’mon: he vultured a Noah Fant touchdown here, didn’t he?