It goes without saying that 2020 hasn’t quite gone the way we had all planned. We were all going to accomplish great things, see different places and watch football that wouldn’t drive us absolutely insane.
This week provided us with some terrible weather, terrible football and more random touchdowns. To say that this week was a slog for most would be an understatement.
A new feature that I’m going to introduce is “The Mike Tolbert Vulture Awards” which will be handed out to touchdown scorers who come out of the blue to absolutely ruin your fantasy week.
We’ve already seen names like Alec Ingold, Jakob Johnson, Lee Smith, Patrick Ricard and many others score touchdowns and with them, we hear a collective groan across the fantasy world. Week 8 was no different, with the likes of Samaje Perine, Gabe Nabers, Ross Dwelley and Albert Okwuegbunam all scored touchdowns and were almost certainly not on anyone’s starting lineups this week, and if they were, shame on you.
“Open my eyes, yeah, it was only just a dream.” – Nelly
[radioclip id=5002415]
1. It’s just one of those years
For this exercise, I want you to close your eyes and remember back to draft day. You were so excited for it to begin, you’re going to absolutely ace this thing! You’ve got the first overall pick, so it’s a no brainer that you’re taking Christian McCaffrey. After that, it’s followed by Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Michael Thomas, Dalvin Cook, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Davante Adams, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Mixon, Tyreek Hill, Nick Chubb, Julio Jones and Lamar Jackson to round out the top-15.
Do you see where I’m going here?
Of those first 15 picks (ADP courtesy of Yahoo Sports), eight have missed at least one game, three have hit the IR and some have vastly underperformed expectations. It’s easily been the most unpredictable fantasy season in recent memory.
Could you imagine Elliott without a touchdown in his last three games? Jackson isn’t a QB1 after eight weeks? Edwards-Helaire would actually have competition in the Kansas City backfield?
I think it’s safe to say that no one expected this kind of craziness at the top of the draft and how could you possibly prepare for losing top-end talent like McCaffrey, Chubb, Thomas, Barkley and Mixon?
Some things you could say might have been predictable.
The Tennessee Titans gave the NFL the blueprint for stopping Jackson — make him pass. Edwards-Helaire wasn’t the consensus top running back in this year’s draft class. And Mixon, for whatever reason, isn’t viewed in the Bengals organization as a bellcow.
You can never predict injuries, it’s hard to see a drop-off for top players and it’s hard to wrap your head around anything that happens in the 2020 season of fantasy football.
2. Patrick Mahomes is the king
It’s taken me eight weeks to write about Mahomes, but in reality, you could talk about him every week for all that he does. If you have him on your roster, you’re fortunate that it’s one position during all this craziness that you don’t need to worry about.
Now, last week was one of those “2020” weeks where the Chiefs put up a boatload of points and Mahomes literally didn’t have to do anything, which resulted in one of the lowest fantasy point outputs of his career.
Needless to say, this week it seemed like he wanted to make up for lost time.
Yes, it was against the lowly Jets who have been burned by so many this season, but Mahomes put on a show. He finished with 416 passing yards and five touchdowns, easily finishing as the QB1 for the week. He just makes everyone around him incredibly dangerous as evidenced by the three players who had over 90 receiving yards and at least one touchdown (Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman) and another who had 63 yards and a touchdown (DeMarcus Robinson).
Even if you don’t have him on your roster, just appreciate the magic that he and Andy Reid continue to make.
It brings a tear to my eye!
3. It’s time to unleash The DobGoblin
I don’t even know if that’s his nickname, but I’m going with it anyway. I’ve heard it and I like it.
There was a reason why the Baltimore Ravens made J.K. Dobbins their second-round selection out of Ohio State this year, but you couldn’t tell why through the first seven weeks of this season.
Well, maybe you could.
Prior to this week, he was averaging an outstanding 6.2 yards per carry on 25 rushes and added 11 catches for 74 yards in six games. Last time I checked, that’s pretty good. Then Mark Ingram got hurt in Week 7 and everyone’s heart started to race at the prospect of somewhat of a full workload for Dobbins.
We weren’t completely rewarded for our patience, but it was still pretty amazing.
All he did was lead the team in rushing with 113 yards on 15 carries (7.53 yards per carry) against one of the best run defences in the NFL. The last time Pittsburgh allowed a 100-yard rusher was in Week 17 of last year when Gus Edwards torched them for 130 yards.
Dobbins showed great vision, incredible footwork and great balance as he sliced and diced the Steelers defence, showing us that he’s by far and away the most talented back on the Ravens.
Does John Harbaugh really need to see any more?
Let’s hope not.
4. Dalvin Cook is a beast, but you already knew that
You could almost never tell that Dalvin Cook missed last week with a groin injury because they certainly didn’t lighten his workload upon his return.
He toted the ball 30 times for 163 yards with three touchdowns and added two catches for 63 yards and a touchdown. He was so good that Kirk Cousins only had to throw the ball 14 times (which is probably what the Vikings want anyway) and lead them to a 28-22 win over their division foe in the Green Bay Packers.
It was Cook’s 17th game with 100 or more all-purpose yards out of 34 career games played and also the 13th game of his career where he has averaged more than five yards per carry (minimum nine carries).
Through six games, Cook is second among running backs in points scored in PPR leagues behind Alvin Kamara. There are plenty of backs behind him who have played eight games and still haven’t come close to Cook’s production.
What’s more amazing is how the Vikings don’t use him more in the passing game, like Kamara, considering that they don’t want Cousins throwing the ball of a whole heck of a lot and they could do themselves some favours by making him get the ball out quicker. His career-high in targets was 63 in 14 games last year, but I would love to see more.
It might even do him wonders for his health if he’s not getting so many tough touches like he is now.
5. Alvin Kamara adds to his greatness
It’ll be only slightly disappointing that Kamara will likely not finish with 81 receptions for a fourth straight season, but it could mean that we are getting to see one of the greatest fantasy seasons for a running back in NFL history.
He’s currently 15th in receiving yards in the league, thanks in large part to the injury to Michael Thomas, but it’s been a fun ride nonetheless. Not only is he accomplishing so much in the receiving game, but he’s also the only skill-position player inside the top five in PPR scoring (Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen round out the list).
This is some pretty mind-blowing stuff we’re talking about here.
The current reception record is held by McCaffrey with 116 and Kamara is currently on pace for 125 catches on 155 targets, which would break both running back records.
What remains to be seen is how much of a hit Kamara’s reception totals when Thomas does return from injury. Seeing that the Saints have been experiencing a bunch of success in the win column, it seems like it’s in their best interest to keep the Kamara train rolling!
6. Phillip Lindsay vs Melvin Gordon: who is ‘The Guy’?
There were plenty of people that thought Melvin Gordon would be a shoo-in for this job in Denver because of the contract that he signed this off-season, but that doesn’t seem to be the case when Phillip Lindsay is healthy.
Gordon has been used a lot more in the passing game thus far as he has 19 receptions through six games, while Lindsay only has two receptions on four targets in four games. Where the biggest discrepancy has come is in the run game.
Not that Gordon has been a big-time yards per carry performer (just four yards per carry in his career including this past week), but Lindsay is far outperforming him in that respect. Lindsay is averaging 6.4 yards per carry this season and in three of four games he has amassed at least 79 rushing yards. Gordon on the other hand has had four of six games where he has rushed for 70 yards or less.
Gordon has been out-touching Lindsay in every game that they have both been on the field, but one has to wonder if that might slowly be shifting to more of a 50-50 split between the two. Lindsay has clearly been more effective with the ball in his hands and has certainly looked like he’s been the more explosive and elusive of the two.
Again, that should be no surprise to anyone.
There is also the chance that a suspension could possibly be forthcoming for Gordon after his DUI, which has gone almost completely under the radar. He has a court date on Nove. 13 and if found guilty, he could be suspended for at least one game, giving Lindsay a firm hold of the majority of touches in the Denver backfield.
If Lindsay is available anywhere, try and pick him up because any suspension to Gordon could be a big boost down the stretch for anyone rostering Lindsay.
7. Could Nick Mullens be a better fantasy asset than Jimmy Garoppolo?
It sounds super crazy, I know, but I’m certain that I’ve said crazier. Mullens came into the game Sunday against the Seahawks in relief of a hobbled Garoppolo and proceeded to go 18-for-25 with 238 passing yards and two touchdowns.
You’re probably thinking, “Ya, but it was against the Seahawks.”
Ok, but Garoppolo didn’t put up those numbers before he got hurt. It should also be pointed out that Seattle was sitting back because they had a huge lead, but Mullens still delivered.
In the last 10 games, including the post-season, Mullens has more passing yards, touchdowns and a better QB rating than Garoppolo. That’s not nothing!
With Garoppolo being out for at least the next six weeks, Mullens has a chance to make some hay with the upcoming schedule. It starts off with Green Bay in Week 9, followed by New Orleans, the LA Rams, Buffalo, Washington and Dallas before it is expected that Garoppolo could return. Three of those six teams are in the bottom half of the league in terms of points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and one of those teams (the Rams), Mullens put up 282 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions in his only career start against them in 2018.
Mullens will be without George Kittle who is likely out for the rest of the season, but that won’t stop him from slinging it. In 10 career starts, Mullens averages 282 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 1.2 interceptions per game, so yardage certainly won’t be an issue, but that to me looks like a viable fantasy starter with some plus matchups. He could be a very good spot starter during bye weeks and may even string together some nice performances in plus matchups.
8. The Buffalo Bills’ running game might just be fine
Devin Singletary was never going to be a bellcow running back in the NFL, but he has the talent to be a really good fantasy asset. Zack Moss was a great collegiate running back at Utah and his season has been derailed a bit by injuries.
Both players had underwhelmed this year, but they may have changed many opinions after their performances this week against the New England Patriots.
Moss had 81 yards on 14 carries with two touchdowns, while Singletary had 86 yards on 14 carries and added one catch for six yards. Not too shabby for a couple of running backs who individually didn’t have a game of more than 71 rushing yards before this week.
The Bills absolutely want to get their running game going with these two guys and I expect to see a lot of 50-50 splits in terms of usage the rest of the way. However, there is one thing that is concerning for their fantasy value and that is their usage inside the five. Josh Allen has the most carries inside the five for any Bills rusher (Moss has one less but has missed time) and will still continue to take away touchdowns.
The schedule doesn’t really play in favour of the run game over the remainder of the season but both guys will be low-end RB2/Flex plays the rest of the year unless one starts to pull away.
9. Some trade advice for the stretch run
We are at the halfway point of the NFL season for a lot of teams, but most leagues are nearing their trade deadline and plenty will be looking to make some last-minute moves to try and get themselves closer to the championship.
As pointed out above, this has been the most unpredictable fantasy season in recent memory and that means you need to protect yourself from having the bottom fall out from under you with an injury.
If you are a contender trading for a star is always the best option, but sometimes those deals are extremely hard to make, so how do you get around it?
Trade for secondary players
Trading for names is always difficult, but there are guys that can be had in trades because they don’t have the same allure of the bigger names but can give you solid production. Players like Tyler Boyd, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins and Brandin Cooks have great rest-of-season value and you likely won’t have to break the bank for them in redraft or small keeper leagues.
Trade for depth pieces
Injuries are ultimately what makes or breaks a fantasy season for many, but not if you’ve built the roster the right way.
Go out and try and get the handcuff for your starting running backs and add depth wide receivers who can help you make a push.
• Jamison Crowder isn’t heralded but had put up a great season when healthy with double-digit targets in every game he has played. Not only is the opportunity there, but Crowder has three 100-yard games out of the four he’s played. Consistency is king.
• Mike Williams has the ability to put up big numbers and Justin Herbert’s arm makes him a great weapon. Williams has three touchdowns in his last three games but does have a bit of a boom-or-bust reputation at this point. Regardless of someone going down to injury, he’s a great WR3/Flex play.
• Damien Harris has double-digit carries in three of four games this season, two 100-yard games and finally found the endzone this past week against Buffalo. There is some worry that his carries will take a hit when Sony Michel comes back, but you can’t deny his 5.5 yards per carry average on a team that really wants to run the ball.
Check in on player values, you might be surprised
There are plenty of names available and the best play of all is to gauge the interest in secondary players that you like because some managers just don’t value secondary players and love big names. Maybe you could trade someone like Amari Cooper who has been wildly inconsistent since Dak Prescott’s injury and get two solid, more reliable pieces in return.
10. Is the Chiefs’ backfield heading for a split?
Le’Veon Bell didn’t go to Kansas City to play just a little bit, I think we can all come to that agreement. While it is early in his tenure there, I do expect the numbers to rise for Bell.
Sunday’s game versus New York was only just a glimpse into what we could see going forward from that backfield as most starters were removed only a couple of minutes into the fourth quarter. We were however able to see some trends that could continue into a 50-50 split or somewhere close to it.
Week 8 stats
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Six carries for 21 yards, three catches for 10 yards and 50 per cent snap share.
Le’Veon Bell: Six carries for seven yards, three catches for 31 yards and 26 per cent snap share.
We do need a larger sample size for when both players in the lineup, but the fact that Bell has 15 touches on 34 snaps is a pretty good barometer to help us see how he is going to be used when he’s on the field. As we get closer to a 50-50 split, we could see Bell hit the 15-touch mark more often than not down the stretch, as long as the games are within reach.
In an offence as powerful as the Chiefs has been, Bell could provide some great punch on your roster as we get closer to the playoffs.
This is also not to say that Edwards-Helaire is somehow going to fade into fantasy oblivion, because he’s not. He is still very much a viable starter every week, but we have to drop him into the RB2 category rather than the RB1 slot where many thought he would end up.
Don’t forget to check out Matt’s “Love ‘Em, Leave ‘Em” picks for the weekend games on Twitter @MattSN590 every Friday.
[relatedlinks]
COMMENTS
When submitting content, please abide by our submission guidelines, and avoid posting profanity, personal attacks or harassment. Should you violate our submissions guidelines, we reserve the right to remove your comments and block your account. Sportsnet reserves the right to close a story’s comment section at any time.