The 2022 NFL season kicks off Thursday with an anticipated matchup between the star-studded Buffalo Bills and defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
A new year of football means fresh opportunities to beat the bookmakers, so with that in mind, here’s an overview of the main futures markets for the upcoming NFL campaign.
SUPER BOWL LVII ODDS & WIN TOTALS
THE FAVOURITES
Buffalo Bills +600 (win total over/under 11.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700 (win total over/under 11.5)
Kansas City Chiefs +1000 (win total over/under 10.5)
Los Angeles Rams +1100 (win total over/under 10.5)
Green Bay Packers +1200 (win total over/under 10.5)
Los Angeles Chargers +1400 (win total over/under 10.0)
Bills vs. Bucs is the chalk Super Bowl matchup as the only teams with listed win totals of 11.5 and odds shorter than 10/1 to win it all. At one point when some actually believed Tom Brady had retired from football back in February, the Bucs had some serious value (upwards of +2500 depending on the sportsbook) but with No. 12 predictably returning to a strong Bucs team that value is long gone.
This top tier features the past three Super Bowl champions and three of the past four MVPs, including reigning back-to-back winner Aaron Rodgers. How will Green Bay’s superstar adapt to a receiving corps full of question marks after the departure of Davante Adams, though?
The Chargers, like the Bills, are a team on the rise still aiming to reach the same stratosphere their L.A. counterparts did one season ago. Justin Herbert on his rookie contract surrounded by a bevy of offensive weapons and an improved defence has the Chargers seeing plenty of action on the futures market.
CAN THEY COMPETE WITH TEAMS ABOVE?
San Francisco 49ers +1500 (win total over/under 9.5)
Denver Broncos +1500 (win total over/under 9.5)
Baltimore Ravens +1800 (win total over/under 10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals +1800 (win total over/under 9.5)
Dallas Cowboys +2200 (win total over/under 9.5)
Philadelphia Eagles +2200 (win total over/under 9.5)
Indianapolis Colts +2500 (win total over/under 9.5)
Will Joe Burrow and the Bengals be able to replicate the success from last season? The 2018 Patriots are the only team since the Bills teams of the early 1990s to advance to a Super Bowl the year after losing the big game. Lamar Jackson, who some forget is younger than Burrow, is only two years removed from his MVP season and poised for a big year.
The Broncos and Colts acquired proven starting QBs in the hopes of putting those rosters over the top, while Trey Lance takes over in San Francisco. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles don’t garner the same type of attention as Dak Prescott’s Cowboys, however expectations are rising in Philly following an off-season full of blockbuster moves.
DARK HORSE CONTENDERS
Cleveland Browns +2800 (win total over/under 8.5)
Arizona Cardinals +3000 (win total over/under 8.5)
Tennessee Titans +3000 (win total over/under 9.5)
Las Vegas Raiders +3300 (win total over/under 8.5)
New Orleans Saints +3500 (win total over/under 8.5)
Miami Dolphins +3500 (win total over/under 8.5)
New England Patriots +3500 (win total over/under 8.5)
Minnesota Vikings +4000 (win total over/under 9.5)
There’s a ton of potential value here, although these teams have been too inconsistent the past couple seasons to get a good read on. The Dolphins have a new coach known for his creativity whose working with Tua Tagovailoa and a revamped offence. The Saints have plenty of roster depth and an influx of starters returning from injury and/or joining the team in the off-season. Minnesota’s price jumps off the page, same with New Orleans. Neither team is favoured to win their division but both clubs looked quality in training camp.
Cleveland will be an interesting team to follow this season for many reasons. Notice the low win total paired with a comparatively short Super Bowl price? There’s a clear correlation there with the fact Deshaun Watson will miss more than half the season while serving his suspension. If the team can remain in playoff contention, the thinking is they’d hit peak potential and be a dangerous playoff team if/when Watson returns and plays like he did in Houston.
LONGSHOTS & BASEMENT DWELLERS
Washington Commanders +6600 (win total over/under 8.5)
Carolina Panthers +6600 (win total over/under 6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers +8000 (win total over/under 7.5)
New York Giants +8000 (win total over/under 7.5)
Seattle Seahawks +8000 (win total over/under 5.5)
Detroit Lions +10000 (win total over/under 6.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars +10000 (win total over/under 6.5)
Chicago Bears +10000 (win total over/under 5.5)
New York Jets +12500 (win total over/under 5.5)
Atlanta Falcons +12500 (win total over/under 4.5)
Houston Texans +17500 (win total over/under 4.5)
If any teams from this bottom tier go on an unexpected Bengals-like run it’ll most likely be Detroit, Jacksonville or perhaps the Jets once Zach Wilson returns from his knee injury. Those three teams are on clear upwards trajectories, while the odds also indicate the Texans, Falcons, Bears and Seahawks are projected to be near the bottom of the standings most of the season. The silver lining to a poor regular-season record this year is the fact there’s two stud QBs near the top the 2023 draft class in Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.
DIVISION TITLE ODDS & PLAYOFF CHANCES
AFC EAST
Bills -230 (make playoffs: -500 | miss playoffs: +360)
Dolphins +400 (make playoffs: +130 | miss playoffs: -160)
Patriots +500 (make playoffs: +160 | miss playoffs: -190)
Jets +2200 (make playoffs: +625 | miss playoffs: -1000)
Buffalo is the chalk pick for the Super Bowl so naturally they’re also expected handle business within their division for a third consecutive season. The Bills were a unanimous pick to come out on top of the AFC East this season, according to our Sportsnet NFL predictions panel.
AFC NORTH
Ravens +140 (make playoffs: -160 | miss playoffs: +130)
Bengals +170 (make playoffs: -150 | miss playoffs: +120)
Browns +360 (make playoffs: N/A | miss playoffs: N/A)
Steelers +850 (make playoffs: +290 | miss playoffs: -380)
The Bengals shocked the league a year ago by exceeding expectations and earning a trip to a Super Bowl. Cleveland has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL but Deshaun Watson won’t debut for the Browns until at least Week 13 hence the absence of odds there. The quarterbacks will be interesting to watch in Pittsburgh with buzz growing around rookie Kenny Pickett, who’ll start the year on the bench. The Steelers don’t often go multiple seasons without winning a division title but how different will the post-Big Ben era be?
AFC SOUTH
Colts -140 (make playoffs: -170 | miss playoffs: +140)
Titans +150 (make playoffs: -115 | miss playoffs: -115)
Jaguars +800 (make playoffs: +450 | miss playoffs: -650)
Texans +2800 (make playoffs: +1425 | miss playoffs: -3000)
Houston has longer odds to make the playoffs than half a dozen teams have to win the Super Bowl. Suffice it to say expectation are low for the Texans…but keep in mind that could mean the public will blindly disregard them, especially early in the season. Don’t let Davis Mills and a low win projection blind you. Houston will be feisty. The Titans have enjoyed six consecutive winning seasons plus two AFC South titles in a row and they’ve outplayed the Colts in recent years. Trevor Lawrence is no longer playing in the shadow of Urban Meyer, which could bode trouble for the rest of the division.
AFC WEST
Chiefs +160 (make playoffs: -220 | miss playoffs: +175)
Chargers +225 (make playoffs: -170 | miss playoffs: +140)
Broncos +260 (make playoffs: -150 | miss playoffs: +120)
Raiders +650 (make playoffs: +165 | miss playoffs: -200)
It is conceivable all four teams finish the season with a winning record and overall it would be a legitimate shock if at least two teams within the stacked division made the post-season. Kansas City has finished above .500 in every year of the Andy Reid era and are looking to win their seventh straight AFC West title.
NFC EAST
Cowboys +140 (make playoffs: -220 | miss playoffs: +175)
Eagles +150 (make playoffs: -200 | miss playoffs: +165)
Giants +500 (make playoffs: +210 | miss playoffs: -260)
Commanders +800 (make playoffs: +165 | miss playoffs: -200)
The Giants and Commanders will do their darndest to compete but it’s again looking like a two-team race this year. With the NFC getting weaker overall this summer, the Eagles have begun to emerge as a popular dark horse to come out of the conference.
NFC NORTH
Packers -200 (make playoffs: -450 | miss playoffs: +330)
Vikings +275 (make playoffs: -130 | miss playoffs: +100)
Lions +900 (make playoffs: +425 | miss playoffs: -600)
Bears +1200 (make playoffs: +275 | miss playoffs: -550)
Green Bay has finished with 13 wins and a division crown in each year under head coach Matt LaFleur. This year’s edition of the team could be powered more by its solid defence, instead of Rodgers to carry the team.
NFC SOUTH
Buccaneers -300 (make playoffs: -700 | miss playoffs: +475)
Saints +350 (make playoffs: +120 | miss playoffs: -150)
Panthers +1000 (make playoffs: +450 | miss playoffs: -650)
Falcons +2500 (make playoffs: +625 | miss playoffs: -1000)
Tampa is the biggest favourite to win their division and are the chalkiest projected playoff team. Atlanta is in a rebuild and have basically zero playoff aspirations this year. The same can’t be said for Carolina, though, and Baker Mayfield is a proven winner when healthy; Christian McCaffrey is also back healthy. New Orleans is a strong contender to return to the post-season despite those plus-money odds.
NFC WEST
Rams +130 (make playoffs: -250 | miss playoffs: +205)
49ers +170 (make playoffs: -220 | miss playoffs: +175)
Cardinals +333 (make playoffs: +110 | miss playoffs: -140)
Seahawks +1400 (make playoffs: +450 | miss playoffs: -650)
Trey Lance’s transition to being the 49ers starter will largely determine how competitive the top of the division will be. If he doesn’t live up to the hype, it’ll remain the defending champ’s division to lose.
MVP ODDS
FRONTRUNNERS
Josh Allen +600 | Patrick Mahomes +750 | Tom Brady +800 | Aaron Rodgers +900 | Justin Herbert +900 | Joe Burrow +1200 | Dak Prescott +1300 | Matthew Stafford +1400 | Russell Wilson +1400 | Kyler Murray +2000 | Lamar Jackson +2000 | Jalen Hurts +2500 | Derek Carr +2500 | Trey Lance +2800
A quarterback has been named MVP in each of the past nine seasons so it’s no surprise to see the frontrunners comprised exclusively of starting pivots. Rodgers (x4), Brady (x3), Jackson and Mahomes are all past winners.
Derrick Henry +4000 | Trevor Lawrence +4000 | Jonathan Taylor +5000 | Cooper Kupp +5000 | Kirk Cousins +5000 | Mac Jones +5000 | Tua Tagovailoa +5000 | Mitchell Trubisky +6000 | Matt Ryan +8000 | Deebo Samuel +8000 | Baker Mayfield +8000 | Jameis Winston +8000 | Carson Wentz +8000
The 27 players above are the only MVP candidates with listed odds shorter than 100/1.
Davante Adams (+10000) and Ja'Marr Chase (+12500) have the best odds among wide receivers once you get past Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel. After that there’s Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman, Tyreek Hill, D.K. Metcalf and Devonta Smith are each listed at +15000, however a WR has never won the award.
Cousins, Tagovailoa and Winston each boasts strong value and all have plenty of weapons on offence, including some of the most talented WRs in the NFL. This is also where you begin to see the skill position players like RBs Henry and Taylor and the defending Super Bowl MVP Kupp. Adrian Peterson in 2012 was the most recent non-QB to be named league MVP.
(Betting odds via Bet365 as of Wednesday and subject to change)
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