Betting on the NFL on a weekly basis can be a fickle endeavour as some of the teams near the bottom of the standings end up being against the spread (ATS) beasts and vice versa.
The past few years have been favourable to underdog and unders bettors overall, but will we see those weekly trends continue or new ones emerge?
The 2023 NFL season kicks off this Thursday with an anticipated matchup between defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and a high-scoring Detroit Lions team.
A new year of football means fresh opportunities to beat the oddsmakers, and with that in mind here’s an overview of the main futures markets for the upcoming NFL campaign.
SUPER BOWL LVIII ODDS & WIN TOTALS
THE FAVOURITES
Kansas City Chiefs +600 (win total over/under 11.5)
Philadelphia Eagles +750 (win total over/under 11.5)
Buffalo Bills +900 (win total over/under 10.5)
San Francisco 49ers +1000 (win total over/under 10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals +1100 (win total over/under 10.5)
Dallas Cowboys +1400 (win total over/under 10.5)
The AFC and NFC each have a trio of clear frontrunners hoping to fend off the other 13 teams within their respective conferences. A Super Bowl LVII rematch is currently chalk with Kansas City projected to come out of the AFC yet again and Philly favoured to win a second straight NFC title.
All six of these teams had at least 12 regular-season wins in 2022 and finished as the top six teams in terms of point differential. All have their starting quarterbacks and head coaches returning so cohesion is another common trait. The Bengals and 49ers were two of only four teams league wide to cover the spread in at least 65 per cent of games in 2022.
SECONDARY CONTENDERS
New York Jets +1600 (win total over/under 9.5)
Baltimore Ravens +1800 (win total over/under 10.5)
Detroit Lions +2200 (win total over/under 9.5)
Miami Dolphins +2200 (win total over/under 9.5)
Los Angeles Chargers +2500 (win total over/under 9.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars +2800 (win total over/under 9.5)
Seattle Seahawks +2800 (win total over/under 9.5)
This second tier is AFC-heavy, which makes sense considering it’s expected to continue being the stronger conference.
How will the refurbished Jets handle some lofty expectations following an off-season that saw them add Aaron Rodgers to one of the best young rosters in the NFL? Both the Jets and Rodgers’s Packers were 8-9 ATS one year ago. The Jets also happened to be one of two teams with an unders percentage above 70. How does that change in the Rodgers era?
The Lions and Jaguars are favoured to win their respective divisions. Every team in this tier should be aiming for a home playoff game.
SHOULD THEY SET SIGHTS ON PLAYOFFS OR MORE?
Cleveland Browns +3300 (win total over/under 9.5)
New Orleans Saints +4000 (win total over/under 9.5)
Minnesota Vikings +4000 (win total over/under 8.5)
Denver Broncos +4000 (win total over/under 8.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (win total over/under 8.5)
New York Giants +5000 (win total over/under 7.5)
Chicago Bears +6000 (win total over/under 7.5)
Green Bay Packers +6000 (win total over/under 7.5)
Atlanta Falcons +6000 (win total over/under 8.5)
At least one division title will be found in this tier, likely either New Orleans or Atlanta in the NFC South, and it’s rife with potential. Chicago stuck with Justin Fields, traded the No. 1 pick, added D.J. Moore and other starters and are in a division that could end up relatively wide open; Denver has a new coach and a more positive outlook; New Orleans and Green Bay have new starting QBs.
LONGSHOTS & BASEMENT DWELLERS
Tennessee Titans +6600 (win total over/under 7.5)
New England Patriots +6600 (win total over/under 7.5)
Washington Commanders +6600 (win total over/under 6.5)
Carolina Panthers +6600 (win total over/under 7.5)
Los Angeles Rams +8000 (win total over/under 6.5)
Las Vegas Raiders +8000 (win total over/under 6.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12500 (win total over/under 6.5)
Indianapolis Colts +12500 (win total over/under 6.5)
Houston Texans +17500 (win total over/under 6.5)
Arizona Cardinals +25000 (win total over/under 4.5)
The Jaguars, Giants and Seahawks all began the 2022 campaign in this lowest tier but each found themselves in a playoff spot by the end of Week 18. Can any of these 10 teams above do the same thing this year?
It would be a bit surprising if a single playoff team emerged from this bottom tier this season, let alone three. The Titans at +205 have the shortest playoff odds among this group (more on that below) after Mike Vrabel’s team had a three-year playoff run and six year plus-.500 record streak snapped in 2022.
The Colts, Bucs, Texans and Cardinals are the four basement dwellers, each with odds longer than 100/1. The Colts and Texans will be debuting top rookie QB prospects this year.
DIVISION TITLE & PLAYOFF ODDS
AFC EAST
Bills +120 (make playoffs: -245 | miss playoffs: +200)
Jets +240 (make playoffs: -130| miss playoffs: +100)
Dolphins +300 (make playoffs: -110 | miss playoffs: -110)
Patriots +800 (make playoffs: +240 | miss playoffs: -320)
This was the most ballyhooed division of the off-season, but will that translate to it being the strongest or most competitive? It boasts three teams with favourable playoff odds. The Bills are expected to remain a Super Bowl contender, the rising Jets and Dolphins hope to gain ground and become top dog in the division, and New England will have to aim to play spoiler. This division faces a difficult projected strength of schedule (all four East squads rank in the bottom eight in terms of difficulty).
If New York and/or Miami can live up to the hype both could challenge Buffalo for the AFC East title at decent value.
AFC NORTH
Bengals +140 (make playoffs: -260 | miss playoffs: +210)
Ravens +225 (make playoffs: -170 | miss playoffs: +140)
Browns +375 (make playoffs: +110 | miss playoffs: -140)
Steelers +475 (make playoffs: +130 | miss playoffs: -160)
Would it surprise anyone if the AFC North ended up being the most competitive division in football? Just look at those playoff odds.
The Bengals were the best AFC team ATS one year ago, but how will Joe Burrow bounce back from his injury that caused him to miss most of training camp and pre-season? How will Lamar Jackson adapt to Todd Monken’s new offence after the team moved on from former offensive coordinator Greg Roman?
Will Year 2 of the Deshaun Watson experiment in Cleveland go as poorly as the first one did? And does Kenny Pickett go through a sophomore slump with the Steelers? All these divisional matchups have potential for fireworks.
AFC SOUTH
Jaguars -160 (make playoffs: -200 | miss playoffs: +165)
Titans +320 (make playoffs: +205 | miss playoffs: -250)
Colts +600 (make playoffs: +360 | miss playoffs: -500)
Texans +800 (make playoffs: +500 | miss playoffs: -750)
Is this the year we see Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars run away with the division? If so, that -160 price could end up seeming like a bargain in hindsight. Jacksonville is expected to to improve on a 9-8 record, while the Texans and Colts turn to rookie QBs and the Titans added DeAndre Hopkins to an offence bringing back Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry.
AFC WEST
Chiefs -160 (make playoffs: -550 | miss playoffs: +390)
Chargers +300 (make playoffs: -115 | miss playoffs: -105)
Broncos +550 (make playoffs: +185 | miss playoffs: -230)
Raiders +1200 (make playoffs: +360 | miss playoffs: -500)
This division has a difficult strength of schedule with the Chiefs and Chargers at the very bottom of the league, although that hasn’t impacted either team’s playoff odds all too much. Denver is among the biggest wild cards in the AFC this season coming off Russell Wilson’s disastrous first season there.
Kansas City, despite hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, had an 8-11-1 record ATS and will be favoured most weeks again this year as long as their starters are healthy.
Las Vegas has elite talent sprinkled all throughout their lineup but expectations are quite low. Raiders totals could be interesting on a weekly basis with a less than stellar defensive unit expected to give up plenty of points.
NFC EAST
Eagles -120 (make playoffs: -450 | miss playoffs: +330)
Cowboys +180 (make playoffs: -225 | miss playoffs: +180)
Giants +700 (make playoffs: +165 | miss playoffs: -200)
Commanders +1200 (make playoffs: +300 | miss playoffs: -390)
Can the Eagles adapt to having several new starters on both sides of the ball and defend their division title? Tony Pollard is ready for another career year in Dallas now that he’s no longer sharing a backfield with Ezekiel Elliott, but can Dak Prescott limit the number of turnovers?
The Giants were one of 2022’s biggest surprises, finishing an NFL-best 14-5 ATS, with much of the credit going to head coach Brian Daboll. Oddsmakers clearly don’t believe they can challenge the Eagles or Cowboys but a wild-card spot could be within reach at plus-value.
NFC NORTH
Lions +130 (make playoffs: -175 | miss playoffs: +145)
Vikings +280 (make playoffs: +100 | miss playoffs: -125)
Packers +400 (make playoffs: +170 | miss playoffs: -210)
Bears +400 (make playoffs: +170 | miss playoffs: -210)
Only five teams finished the 2022 season (playoffs included) with a positive overs percentage and three of them were in the NFC North. Minnesota was 12-6 on overs, while Chicago and Detroit were both 10-7. Green Bay was a 9-8 unders team but their team totals could be slightly lower on a week-to-week basis compared to last season now that Jordan Love has taken over for Aaron Rodgers.
Detroit finished an impressive 12-5 ATS last season, while the other three struggled to cover the spread most weeks: Minnesota was 7-10-1 ATS, Green Bay 8-9 ATS, while Chicago ranked 31st with a 5-11-1 ATS record.
NFC SOUTH
Saints +110 (make playoffs: -180 | miss playoffs: +150)
Falcons +220 (make playoffs: +100 | miss playoffs: -125)
Panthers +400 (make playoffs: +180 | miss playoffs: -225)
Buccaneers +800 (make playoffs: +390 | miss playoffs: -550)
One thing of note in the NFC South this year, besides the Bryce Young era beginning in Carolina, is the fact the Falcons and Saints have the two easiest strength of schedule projections in the entire league and it’s not really close. The Saints brought in Derek Carr to be the new starter, while the Falcons added rookie running back sensation Bijan Robinson so the battle at the top of the division could be a fun one.
Tampa is a clear example of just how much can change in one calendar year in the NFL. The Bucs were -300 to win this division prior to the 2022 season with Tom Brady still around. Bettors did cash that division title ticket despite the Bucs finishing below .500. You didn’t see positive results if you bet on the Bucs weekly in 2022 as they finished a league worst 4-13-1 ATS. The team will likely be a listed underdog in most weeks this year with Baker Mayfield behind centre.
NFC WEST
49ers -175 (make playoffs: -450 | miss playoffs: +330)
Seahawks +220 (make playoffs: -125 | miss playoffs: +100)
Rams +900 (make playoffs: +280 | miss playoffs: -370)
Cardinals +225 (make playoffs: +1125 | miss playoffs: -2200)
Will Seattle be able to keep pace with a 49ers team that went a league best 9-2 ATS when at home last year? L.A. is in a precarious spot heading into this season and could be in store for a complete rebuild if they don’t see positive results early on, while Arizona has the worst playoff odds by a wide margin. The Cardinals won’t have Kyler Murray to start the season and it’ll be curious to see if the team will muster a single victory by the time he’s healthy. Arizona was one of the only teams last year to finish with a positive overs record at 8-7-2.
MVP ODDS
FRONTRUNNERS
Patrick Mahomes +600 | Joe Burrow +750 | Josh Allen +850 | Jalen Hurts +1100 | Justin Herbert +1200 | Lamar Jackson +1500 | Trevor Lawrence +1500 | Aaron Rodgers +1600
A quarterback has been named MVP in 10 consecutive seasons and in 15 of the past 16 years overall, so it’s no surprise to see the top candidates exclusively comprised of star QBs. Reigning MVP Mahomes (x2), Rodgers (x4) and Jackson (x1) and are all previous winners.
VALUE CONTENDERS
Dak Prescott +2000 | Justin Fields +2000 | Tua Tagovailoa +2200 | Jared Goff +2500 | Deshaun Watson +3000 | Geno Smith +3000 | Brock Purdy +4000 | Russell Wilson +4000 | Derek Carr +4000 | Kenny Pickett +4000 | Kirk Cousins +5000 | Trey Lance +5000 | Jordan Love +6000 | Matthew Stafford +6000 | Christian McCaffrey +8000 | Justin Jefferson +10000 | Ja’Marr Chase +10000
If you’re the type of bettor that seeks value in the MVP prop category then this is the group of players you’re likely to target.
Trey Lance being listed here is an interesting inclusion. The 2021 third-overall pick of the 49ers was traded to the Cowboys in late August. If Prescott struggles or is unable to play then Dallas could turn to Lance the way Lance’s former team in San Francisco turned to Brock Purdy a year ago.
Adrian Peterson in 2012 is the lone non-QB to be named MVP in the past 16 seasons. McCaffrey, Jefferson and Chase have the shortest MVP odds among all skill/defensive positions.
(Team betting odds via Bet365 as of Sunday and subject to change; MVP odds via DraftKings as of Sunday and subject to change; 2022 trends and records via TeamRankings)
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