The 2024 NFL regular season kicks off Thursday with an anticipated AFC Championship rematch between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.
This year also has a bonus Week 1 game on Friday between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles before a 13-game Sunday slate and a Monday Nighter featuring Aaron Rodgers’ New York Jets taking on the touted San Francisco 49ers.
A new year of football means fresh opportunities to beat the oddsmakers, so with that in mind here’s an overview of the main NFL futures markets ahead of the 2024 NFL campaign.
SUPER BOWL ODDS (PLUS REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS)
Kansas City Chiefs +550 (win total over/under 11.5)
San Francisco 49ers +550 (win total over/under 10.5)
Baltimore Ravens +900 (win total over/under 10.5)
Detroit Lions +1200 (win total over/under 10.5)
Cincinnati Bengals +1200 (win total over/under 10.5)
Buffalo Bills +1200 (win total over/under 9.5)
Philadelphia Eagles +1400 (win total over/under 10.5)
Dallas Cowboys +1600 (win total over/under 9.5)
Houston Texans +1600 (win total over/under 9.5)
Green Bay Packers +1600 (win total over/under 9.5)
New York Jets +1800 (win total over/under 9.5)
Atlanta Falcons +2500 (win total over/under 9.5)
Miami Dolphins +2500 (win total over/under 9.5)
Los Angeles Rams +3000 (win total over/under 8.5)
Chicago Bears +3000 (win total over/under 8.5)
Los Angeles Chargers +3500 (win total over/under 8.5)
Cleveland Browns +4000 (win total over/under 8.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (win total over/under 7.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars +4500 (win total over/under 8.5)
Indianapolis Colts +6000 (win total over/under 7.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6600 (win total over/under 7.5)
Seattle Seahawks +6600 (win total over/under 7.5)
Minnesota Vikings +8000 (win total over/under 6.5)
New Orleans Saints +8000 (win total over/under 7.5)
Las Vegas Raiders +8000 (win total over/under 6.5)
Arizona Cardinals +10000 (win total over/under 6.5)
New York Giants +10000 (win total over/under 5.5)
Denver Broncos +12500 (win total over/under 5.5)
Washington Commanders +12500 (win total over/under 6.5)
New England Patriots +15000 (win total over/under 4.5)
Tennessee Titans +15000 (win total over/under 6.5)
Carolina Panthers +25000 (win total over/under 5.5)
All the win totals above are juiced to favour the over, meaning the oddsmakers project a team is more likely than not to win more games than the number listed.
You can use those win totals, plus the Super Bowl odds, as a loose dividing line to figure out which teams comprise the top-tier championship contenders, the secondary challengers, the playoff contenders, longshots and the teams that’ll end up battling for next year’s No. 1 draft pick.
The Chiefs can become the first team to three-peat as Super Bowl champs and they are the odds-on favourites along with the 49ers, the team they beat at Allegiant Stadium this past February.
Behind the AFC and NFC frontrunners is a mix of regular contenders like the Ravens, Eagles, Bills and Cowboys, plus some teams looking to build off impressive 2023 campaigns and 2024 off-seasons.
Compared to the Super Bowl odds ahead of Week 1 in 2023, the team that made the biggest strides over the past calendar year are the Texans led by C.J. Stroud. The revamped Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears also have elevated expectations heading into Week 1.
At the other end of the conversation, oddsmakers are not hopeful the situation in Carolina is going to turn around this season.
DIVISION WINNER ODDS (AND PLAYOFF CHANCES)
AFC EAST
Bills +170 (make playoffs: -220 | miss playoffs: +170)
Jets +180 (make playoffs: -135 | miss playoffs: +105)
Dolphins +200 (make playoffs: -170 | miss playoffs: +140)
Patriots +2500 (make playoffs: +850 | miss playoffs: -1400)
The AFC East is projected to essentially be a three-team division this season with the Patriots having the AFC's worst playoff odds plus a league-low win total. There are questions surrounding Buffalo’s depth, injury issues within Miami’s explosive offence, and how will the Jets look with Aaron Rodgers finally behind centre.
AFC NORTH
Ravens +140 (make playoffs: -350 | miss playoffs: +260)
Bengals +145 (make playoffs: -240 | miss playoffs: +190)
Browns +600 (make playoffs: +150 | miss playoffs: -185)
Steelers +800 (make playoffs: +175 | miss playoffs: -225)
Cincinnati still needs to figure out the contract situation with Ja’Marr Chase, while they battle with Baltimore for the top spot in the division. Pittsburgh’s offence has several new quarterbacks. Will Russell Wilson gain back his previous form or will Justin Fields possibly get his chance to lead the Steelers offence? Cleveland’s star running back Nick Chubb missing the beginning of the season, plus a tough second-half schedule puts the Browns on an uphill climb heading into Week 1. The Ravens messed up big time in terms of game plan in the most recent AFC Championship. How will Lamar Jackson and his teammates respond?
AFC SOUTH
Texans +105 (make playoffs: -190 | miss playoffs: +155)
Jaguars +275 (make playoffs: +110 | miss playoffs: -140)
Colts +310 (make playoffs: +175 | miss playoffs: -225)
Titans +1000 (make playoffs: +425 | miss playoffs: -650)
This division very quickly went from Trevor Lawrence’s to C.J. Stroud’s after Stroud’s incredible rookie campaign and Houston’s impressive turnaround season. Jacksonville is coming off back-to-back 9-8 seasons but unlike in 2022 when they won the South and a playoff game, they missed the post-season entirely last year and are considered a bubble team in 2024. Tennessee has a new coach and no more Derrick Henry as the Titans enter a rebuilding year. Anthony Richardson is back healthy for the Colts, but can he return to the effective form fans saw for a few weeks during his rookie year before he sustained a season-ending injury?
AFC WEST
Chiefs -230 (make playoffs: -450 | miss playoffs: +320)
Chargers +320 (make playoffs: -105 | miss playoffs: -115)
Raiders +900 (make playoffs: +300 | miss playoffs: -400)
Broncos +1800 (make playoffs: +500 | miss playoffs: -800)
If Kansas City’s starters stay healthy the majority of the season it is almost safe to lock in a ninth consecutive division title before they attempt to chase a third straight Super Bowl. Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL and introduction to the division as the new Chargers coach should be a fun storyline to follow. Justin Herbert’s squad isn’t as flashy or scary on paper as they have been, but perhaps Harbaugh’s hardnosed style of football helps turn things around there. Scoring points could, in theory, be an issue for Las Vegas and Denver this season.
NFC EAST
Eagles +100 (make playoffs: -220 | miss playoffs: +170)
Cowboys +150 (make playoffs: -240 | miss playoffs: +190)
Commanders +800 (make playoffs: +300 | miss playoffs: -390)
Giants +1300 (make playoffs: +400 | miss playoffs: -600)
It’s interesting here that Philadelphia has better odds to win the division than Dallas but slightly worse playoff odds overall. That would appear to be a higher ceiling, lower floor type projection for the Eagles in comparison to the Cowboys. There is finally some reason for optimism in Washington with the Jayden Daniel era about to get underway, but will an exciting rookie QB help the Commanders catch up to the Cowboys and Eagles? Dallas’s and Philadelphia’s chances likely will mirror the performances of Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts. Oh yes, the Giants are also in this division but besides some promising first-year players there isn’t much optimism surrounding the G-Men.
NFC NORTH
Lions +130 (make playoffs: -230 | miss playoffs: +180)
Packers +210 (make playoffs: -190 | miss playoffs: +155)
Bears +265 (make playoffs: -130 | miss playoffs: +100)
Vikings +900 (make playoffs: +250 | miss playoffs: -340)
Chicago took Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 Draft and it should quickly become clear the Bears finally have a quarterback with a reliable arm, which adds major intrigue to this division. Minnesota’s collective backs were put against the wall before Week 1 when first-round selection J.J. McCarthy went down with a season-ending injury before playing his first pro game. Will Jordan Love continue performing at a Pro Bowl level with a new Packers backfield in tow, and is this the year the Lions take that next step? The team made several key additions on defence, which in the big picture should also help Detroit’s already-explosive offence.
NFC SOUTH
Falcons -130 (make playoffs: -300 | miss playoffs: +225)
Buccaneers +300 (make playoffs: +140 | miss playoffs: -170)
Saints +400 (make playoffs: +180 | miss playoffs: -230)
Panthers +1100 (make playoffs: +900 | miss playoffs: -1800)
Atlanta getting a new coach and adding veteran talent like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons is expected to help get the team back to the playoffs for the first time since the Matt Ryan era. The Falcons are anything but a sure thing, so division title aspirations for both Tampa Bay and New Orleans are absolutely realistic. Carolina on the other hand is expected to be a disaster. The Panthers have the worst Super Bowl odds and the worst odds to qualify for the playoffs.
NFC WEST
49ers -210 (make playoffs: -550 | miss playoffs: +375)
Rams +350 (make playoffs: +105 | miss playoffs: -135)
Seahawks +750 (make playoffs: +200 | miss playoffs: -250)
Cardinals +1200 (make playoffs: +350 | miss playoffs: -500)
Oddsmakers think Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are the most likely team in the entire NFL to qualify for the playoffs. San Francisco is looking for its fourth consecutive NFC Championship appearance with Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey healthy to start the season. What will the post-Aaron Donald Rams defence look like and will that unit be capable of taking pressure off Matt Stafford and the offence, which should be effective through the air and on play-action thanks to an improved offensive line?
Seattle has finished above .500 in 11 of the past 12 years but expectations are lower this season, and the Seahawks run the risk of missing the playoffs two years in a row for the first time since before the Pete Carroll era. Arizona could be a darling fantasy team based on where many of their players were being selected during fantasy draft season, but will that translate to wins on the field?
MVP ODDS
FRONTRUNNERS
Patrick Mahomes +475 | C.J. Stroud +800 | Josh Allen +900 | Joe Burrow +950 | Jalen Hurts +1200 | Jordan Love +1400 | Aaron Rodgers +1800 | Lamar Jackson +2000 | Jared Goff +2000 | Dak Prescott +2000 | Brock Purdy +2000 | Tua Tagovailoa +2500 | Trevor Lawrence +3000 | Matthew Stafford +3000
Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers have each won twice in the past six years. Mahomes is the chalk pick to win his third career MVP this season and all three are among the top eight contenders according to the futures market ahead of Week 1.
If it’s not one of those three All-Pro calibre players, it’ll in all likelihood be another starting quarterback that ends up leading their team to a division and/or conference title.
LONGSHOTS
Anthony Richardson +3500 | Kirk Cousins +3500 | Justin Herbert +3500 | Caleb Williams +4500 | Kyler Murray +5000 | Christian McCaffrey +6000 | Deshaun Watson +7500 | Baker Mayfield +10000 | Tyreek Hill +10000 | Geno Smith +10000 | Russell Wilson +10000 | Justin Jefferson +13000 | Jayden Daniels +15000
Running backs Adrian Peterson (2012), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Shaun Alexander (2005) are the only non-QBs to be named league MVP in the past 20 years.
(Team betting odds via Bet365 and subject to change; MVP odds via DraftKings and subject to change)
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