With all of 2020's bye weeks in the books, Sunday of Week 14 in the NFL will be jam-packed with 14 games on the schedule – but none are bigger than the Sunday night showdown in Orchard Park between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers, two of the top teams in the AFC.
From the state of each team heading into the game to what's on the line ahead of kick off, here's everything you need to know about one of the biggest games of the season yet.
State of the Pittsburgh Steelers
11-1 | 1st in AFC North | 1st in AFC
Fresh off their first loss of the season – a shock 23-17 Monday night blunder at the hands of the Washington Football Team – the Steelers feel like a squad trending in the wrong direction.
An 11-0 start to the season is an impressive feat, but this Steelers team has never felt like some other dominant undefeated teams NFL fans have seen in the past – six of Pittsburgh’s wins have been by seven points or fewer and eight have been by 10 or fewer. But an efficient offence and top-tier defence make the Steelers undoubtedly one of the league’s top teams, despite the lack of complete dominance.
But over the last few weeks, cracks have begun to show – especially on offence.
With Ben Roethlisberger’s arm not as strong as it used to be, the team is depending more on the short passing game than the deep ball, a tactic that worked effectively in the first half of the season but has not been working lately. Why? Drops. Pittsburgh receivers had eight drops last week against Washington and lead the league in that category so far this season with 33.
The other, more concerning part of the Steelers’ offensive struggles of late is the run game. It’s essentially been non-existent. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in rushing through 13 weeks and have run for more than 100 yards as a team in just one of their last seven games, including only 21 yards rushing on Monday against the Football Team.
With no deep passing game to speak of and an ineffective running game, opposing defences are keying in on stopping those quick passes and it’s working. How the Steelers try to address these offensive issues will be one of the most interesting aspects of Sunday night’s game in Buffalo.
Of course, it’s far from doom and gloom for Pittsburgh. The team still boasts one of the league’s best defences – despite season-ending injuries to key players Devin Bush and Bud Dupree – led by defensive player of the year candidate T.J. Watt, and that unit’s dominance of offences hasn’t waned of late: the Steelers are first in total points against, allowing an average of just fewer than 18 points per game.
But with Kansas City hot on Pittsburgh’s tail for the top seed in the AFC, Sunday’s game is as close to must-win as an 11-1 team can get.
State of the Buffalo Bills
9-3 | 1st in AFC East | 3rd in AFC
Fresh off what may have been Josh Allen’s best passing game of the season in a 34-24 win against the 49ers, the Bills enter the Sunday night spotlight as one of the hottest teams in the AFC – Buffalo has won five of its last six games and is a Hail Murray away from being winners of six straight.
A lot of that success comes thanks to what has become one of the NFL’s best passing games. Behind a much-improved (that’s an understatement) Allen under centre, one of the best trio of wide receivers in the league and a top-of-his-game play-caller in offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, the Bills are one of the league’s most dangerous offences and consistently torch opposing defences.
After a couple of mid-season losses to the Titans and Chiefs led some to call into question Buffalo’s status as legitimate contenders, the Bills appear to have proven their doubters wrong with impressive wins over the Patriots, Seahawks and Niners. The Bills are squarely back in the upper tier of the AFC, but that doesn’t mean questions don’t remain.
Firstly, Buffalo’s defence – a top-five unit under Sean McDermott in years past – has struggled for most of the season, surrendering more than 400 yards on six occasions so far in 2020 after doing that just three times in 2018 and 2019 combined. There have been signs lately that things are beginning to turn around, but that side of the football is much less trustworthy than it's ever been in the McDermott era.
The second part of this Bills team that’s unusual from previous iterations of McDermott-coached Buffalo teams is the run game, or lack thereof. In each of the past three seasons with McDermott at the helm and Allen on the sideline, the Bills have been a top-10 rushing team. In 2020? Buffalo is 23rd and doesn't have a player averaging more than 45 rushing yards per game.
And the last question mark is still Allen. The progress of the 2018 seventh-overall pick this season has been nothing short of remarkable – many questioned whether Allen was even a starting-calibre NFL quarterback, and now he’s undoubtedly a top-five player at the position.
But when things get real, with his team in meaningful games like Sunday night’s or deep into January, can Bills fans trust his decision-making under pressure? We’re about to find out.
What’s At Stake
There’s no other way to put it: Sunday night’s game is huge for both teams.
A playoff berth is all but assured for Pittsburgh at this point – they could have a spot in the post-season locked up before kick off in Buffalo and, if they haven’t already, can clinch with a win in Buffalo. An AFC North title could soon follow if the Browns fall to the Ravens on Monday night.
But the real race the Steelers have their eye on is for that No. 1 seed in the AFC, with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs hot on Pittsburgh’s tail. A loss in Buffalo on Sunday and a Chiefs win over the Dolphins earlier in the day could see the defending champions leap-frog Pittsburgh for the top seed, pulling the conference’s only first-round bye from the Steelers’ grasp.
While clinching a playoff berth this week is possible for Buffalo, it’s unlikely and can’t actually happen until Monday night. But a win Sunday night will keep Buffalo atop the AFC East and possibly put some distance between the Bills and the Dolphins, depending on how Miami fares against K.C. earlier in the day.
There’s also an outside chance the Bills could be in the conversation for top spot in the AFC should the Steelers and Chiefs both falter down the stretch, so a victory on Sunday would also give Buffalo a tie break over Pittsburgh.
Sunday Night X-Factors
Here's a player for each team who could alter the course of Sunday's game.
Steelers: T.J. Watt
Chargers star Joey Bosa wreaked havoc on Josh Allen and the Bills offence a couple of weeks back, and Watt has the same capability to take over a game from defensive end and change the outcome single-handedly.
Bills: Cole Beasley
While Stefon Diggs is undoubtedly the most important receiver in Buffalo, Beasley has emerged as the perfect safety outlet for Allen and is on pace for a career year. Should Diggs find himself blanketed all game Sunday, look for Allen to go to Beasley often.
Against The Spread
The Bills opened as 2.5-point underdogs but the line has shifted in Buffalo’s favour and they enter the game as slight two-point favourites over the AFC’s top team.
For a full betting breakdown of the Sunday nighter – and every other game on the Week 14 schedule – check out the latest episode of Against The Spread.
