NFL training camps are right around the corner and as anticipation for a new season grows, certain star players around the league have been making bold proclamations.
Miami Dolphins speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill felt the need to say on a recent episode of his It Needed To Be Said podcast that he “will break 2,000 yards next year,” which would be a historic total for a pass-catcher.
The NFL has become more of a pass-heavy league over the past decade, and two years ago a 17th game was added to the regular-season schedule. Essentially, the league has never been primed to have a 2,000-yard receiver more than it currently is, so it got us thinking: Could Hill or any other receiver realistically reach that milestone this season?
Hill, a unique playmaker and talent thanks to his elite speed and agility, would certainly be on the short list of contenders.
The 29-year-old set career highs with 1,710 yards on 119 receptions and 170 targets in his first season with the Dolphins, finishing second in the league behind Minnesota Vikings All-Pro Justin Jefferson, who totalled 1,809 receiving yards.
To reach the 2,000-yard milestone, a player would have to average 117.7 yards per game over a 17-game schedule. To date, there have been only five receivers in NFL history to average more than 117.7 yards per game.
Calvin Johnson finished with 1,964 yards in 2012 across a 16-game schedule. That yardage total remains the NFL’s single-season record. Johnson’s 122.8 yards per game average over a 17-game schedule would’ve seen him get to 2,087 yards.
Four others would've also been on track: Wes Chandler had 1,032 yards (129 per game) in just eight games with the San Diego Chargers in 1982; Charley Hennigan had 1,746 yards (124.7 per game) in 14 games with the Houston Oilers in 1961; Elroy Hirsch averaged 124.5 per game over a dozen games with the 1951 L.A. Rams; and Jim Benton, also with the Rams, was the first player to average more than 118 per game when he had 1,067 yards over nine games in 1945.
Also, Josh Gordon averaged 117.6 yards per game during his 2013 All-Pro season but even that impressive average over 17 games would fall one yard short of the 2,000-yard milestone.
Since 2020, Hill is one of five receivers to record six or more games with 118 receiving yards in a single season. Hill had six such outings in 2022, during which he accumulated 1,004 of his 1,710 yards. He was held to 706 yards in the other 11 games.
A key factor for Hill this season will be the health of his starting quarterback.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was inactive for four games in 2022 due to injuries and Hill failed to exceed 55 yards in three of those four games. Hill averaged 108.3 yards per game when Tagovailoa started, which over the course of a full 17-game schedule would’ve been enough for Hill to lead the league with 1,841 yards.
Will Hill be able to add an additional 10-or-so yards per game to what he averaged with Tagovailoa throwing him the ball, and then maintain it for a full season?
Hill told Sports Illustrated back in June he felt he didn’t have a firm grasp of first-year head coach Mike McDaniel's offensive system in 2022 and that much of his success was “all athleticism” and simply a result of him winging it out there.
Would a healthy Tagovailoa, coupled with Hill being more comfortable with the playbook in his second year in Miami, be enough to result in a record-breaking campaign?
“I feel like I’ve got the right tools around me,” Hill added. “I’ve got obviously the most accurate quarterback in the NFL. I’ve got one of the best head coaches in the NFL, and also my position coach (Wes Welker) is a monster. So, just having those three things, and me just keeping the same mindset each and every day that I want to get better and I want to break the record. … I do want to break the record, so I feel like this is one of those years that I can achieve it.”
Rams star Cooper Kupp nearly broke the record with 1,947 yards in 2021, thanks to a 114.5 per game average. Meanwhile, Jefferson came closest to 2,000 yards in 2022 by averaging 106.4 per game.
Jefferson’s targets, receptions and yards totals have all increased year-over-year since he entered the league in 2020, and oddsmakers have him listed as the favourite to lead the NFL in receiving yards, followed by Bengals standout Ja'Marr Chase, then Hill with the third-best odds. Kupp, A.J. Brown of the Eagles, Raiders’ Davante Adams, Bills’ Stefon Diggs plus Hill’s Dolphins teammate Jalen Waddle are also among the betting favourites to lead the NFL in receiving yards this season.
Which receiver do you think has the best chance at getting to 2,000?
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