Fantasy X-Factors 2022: Which skill players can be the difference?

Remember when Tom Brady retired after the Super Bowl in February earlier this year? Not only did Tampa’s QB unretire then later spark rumours of his participation in the ‘The Masked Singer’ but there were also massive trades that changed the balance of the league itself, including seeing new homes for Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield and a bevy of other players.

All that is to say it has been a long, tumultuous off-season but we made it. The 2022 NFL season is nearly upon us and that also means it’s fantasy football season.

One of the best aspects of this part of the NFL calendar is all the fantasy football drafts taking place. Pre-season is over, final roster cuts have been made, and we’ll all be incredibly high on our fantasy teams… at least until the first play from scrimmage during the season opener, at which point we lament every decision made – but that’s part of the fun!

With drafts coming fast and furious, let’s look at some players you should be targeting in the later rounds. We collectively know Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Kupp, Derrick Henry, and Justin Jefferson are going to be drafted in first rounds, for example, but who are the trendy sleepers and breakout players that are must-haves at your draft parties?

Let’s dive in!

Note: This is done with 0.5 PPR (point-per-reception), 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX leagues in mind.

Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow

This may seem like a no-brainer, but allow me to explain. Despite what was, by all accounts, an absolutely fantastic season in 2021, I’m still seeing some slippage when it comes to his draft rankings. He’s going as the 95th player overall on most draft boards, and the 39th wideout, which seems wild. Sure, the addition of newcomer Davante Adams and a presumably healthy Darren Waller will make last season harder to replicate, but we have to remember this is a different coaching staff as well.

New Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels has cultivated a reputation as an offensive guru during his long tenure in New England, and those offensive schemes of Patriots yesteryear have almost exclusively featured slot receivers. From Troy Brown to Wes Welker to Julian Edelman, McDaniels has helped turn slot receivers into fantasy gold dating back to 2005, and with Derek Carr throwing the ball (over 600+ pass attempts in 2021), there’s enough yardage to go around.

Put it another way: even if Renfrow replicates 75 per cent of his 2021 production – a season in which he caught 103 passes for 1,038 yards and nine TDs – selecting him in the seventh round or later is still a tremendous bargain. At the end of the day, Renfrow clearly has the implicit trust of Carr to be in the right place at the right time, which means you want to retain his services given the expectations for the Raiders offence in 2022.

Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

For a guy who was brought up via the veritable wide receiver factory they have down in Pittsburgh, I’m surprised Smith-Schuster isn’t getting more love in drafts these days. I understand he was injured for a large chunk of last season, but at the same time, this is a guy capable of putting up huge numbers when healthy. Despite that, he’s currently being taken around pick 71, or the 31st WR off the board.

Think about this: with Tyreek Hill no longer in town, there are 159 targets and 111 receptions for the Chiefs receiving corps to vacuum up. Some will be undoubtedly taken by TE Travis Kelce (the clear-cut No. 1 receiving option), but Smith-Schuster has experience collecting targets, including 128 targets/97 receptions as recently as 2020 – his most recent fully healthy season in the NFL.

Don’t forget, he’s going from 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger in 2021 to 26-year-old Patrick Mahomes in 2022, and he’s only 25 years old himself; the Chiefs offence might look different this year, it’s true, but Smith-Schuster has a chance to be a huge part of a fantasy-friendly offence, and he’s available in rounds 6-7 (if not later) to boot.

Dolphins RB Chase Edmonds

Edmonds is one of my favourite picks available in the draft this year, largely because he is being taken in that ‘RB dead zone’ – the area that exists after the beginning of the third round, a place where you don’t feel good about taking virtually any running back. All the top guys are likely off the board at this point, which means if you take a running back, you’re probably reaching a little bit. I like going WR-heavy in these rounds, generally, but if you have to shore up the RB position, Edmonds is a perfect candidate.

A lot of the value for Edmonds comes via his pass-catching abilities. He has the 10th-most receptions by a running back over the past two seasons. That pairs perfectly with QB Tua Tagovailoa’s running/improvisational skills, where Edmonds could easily exist as his safety valve on most plays.

Additionally, the Dolphins cut Sony Michel, leaving the oft-injured Raheem Mostert as the only other true backup (Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed, who saw some burn in 2021, are still there, but will likely contribute largely on special teams) which means Edmonds, a player who has largely been the understudy to players like Kenyan Drake and James Conner, will likely be given every chance to lead the backfield. At his current ADP (going as RB30 off the board), you definitely want to take a chance on a guy who could have a starring role in 2022.

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk

If nothing else, putting a Jaguars wideout on this list makes me really buy into the concept that time is a flat circle after all – remember the years of Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson? You should, it wasn’t that long ago. Nevertheless, there are a lot of reasons to like Kirk this year, and the biggest one is simply that there isn’t a ton of competition for him at wide receiver down in Jacksonville. Marvin Jones will almost assuredly be relevant in some fashion, but Kirk is coming off a season where he operated as a slot receiver in Arizona, and turned in career-high numbers across the board as a result (often in relief of an injured DeAndre Hopkins).

With QB Trevor Lawrence expected to take the second-year leap in a more quarterback-friendly offensive thanks to new head coach Doug Pederson, there will be a lot of pass attempts to go around for a team that will likely be playing catch up most of the time. Kirk is currently available around the 98th overall pick, or the 40th WR drafted – there is virtually no way he doesn’t outperform those rankings barring an injury, so I’m targeting him in the late-middle rounds in as many leagues as possible.

Texans RB Dameon Pierce

Perhaps the trendiest rookie fantasy pick in the entire draft this year (outside of Jets RB Breece Hall, who is being drafted in the top 40 in most leagues), Pierce raised some eyebrows with his usage over the past few months. He got work with the first-team offence all training camp, and was one of the starters rested in the second preseason game. If you needed more confirmation that the Texans are ready to use him, then look no further than the release of RB Marlon Mack on roster cutdown day, which largely clears the way for Pierce to be used heavily.

The Texans are still a relatively talent deficient team (even so, I still believe in receiver Brandin Cooks’ target share, by the way) – but one of the most common refrains you’ll hear in fantasy football is that opportunity is everything. If Pierce, who was a dynamic runner for the Florida Gators, gets that opportunity in the NFL then you might be able to grab a potential low-end RB1 in that aforementioned ‘RB dead zone’ after the third round. Beware, though: since Mack was cut, Pierce’s ADP (average draft position) has been steadily rising, so just know that you might have to pay up a bit more to nab him.

Titans WR Robert Woods

Over the last few years, we know very well the Titans offence runs (literally) through RB Derrick Henry and for good reason. We’ve seen him routinely banish players to the shadow realm and even after breaking his foot late last season he led the league in rushing yards for most of the year. While it clearly remains a run-first offence down in Nashville, Ryan Tannehill (and perhaps Malik Willis later in the year) still needs to throw the ball occasionally, and there are only a few viable options for the Titans QBs. No A.J. Brown (traded to Philadelphia) or Julio Jones (signed with Tampa Bay), and in comes Woods who averaged a whopping 132 targets per season during his time in Los Angeles.

He’s on track to start Week 1 with the ACL tear of 2021 behind him and the reliable Woods will challenge rookie Treylon Burks to be the top option in Tennessee. Considering his current status as WR42 off the board, he is an extremely low-cost, late-round pick that could have major upside for your fantasy teams in 2022.