Five surprising NFL storylines emerging at 1/3 mark

We’re six weeks into the 2024 NFL season. How did that happen?

In a league as unpredictable week-to-week as the NFL, it can be hard to know when, exactly, we can start trusting a team. Now that we’re officially one third of the way through the 18-week campaign, it’s safe to say we’re starting to see most teams’ true colours.

With that in mind, we’re taking stock of this six-week sample size and picking out some of the most surprising — good and bad — developments that have emerged so far and have had the biggest impact on the standings at this point.

Whether or not these observations continue to ring true six weeks from now will be interesting to watch as we near the mid-season mark.

The Jets’ offence looks familiar

Delayed a year due to Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles, the New York Jets were all set to launch their new-look offence this fall. But six games into the season, things are looking pretty familiar — and not in a good way.

Let’s compare:

At this point last year, the Jets’ Zach Wilson-led offence had posted 113 points through six games, with a 3-3 record to show for it. Wilson registered 1,097 passing yards for four touchdowns and five interceptions in that time.

Through six games this year, the Jets’ Rodgers-led offence also has exactly 113 points, with a 2-4 record so far. While Rodgers’ individual stats — 1,387 passing yards for nine TDs — are obviously stronger than Wilson’s, his five interceptions match that of his predecessor while the team overall has looked completely out of sync. With Rodgers at the helm, the Jets have yet to tally more than 24 points in a game. Both Wilson and Rodgers suffered a skid of three straight losses within the first six weeks.

The 2023 Jets went on to post the worst offensive numbers in the league, headlined by an NFL-low 22 touchdowns (just 11 TD catches). Clearly, the 2024 Jets are prepared to make moves to avoid a similar fate. The firing of head coach Robert Saleh after Week 5 kicked off the shake-up, while this week’s acquisition of wide receiver Davante Adams after losing to the Buffalo Bills on Monday night reunites the Packers’ top QB-WR duo in hopes of sparking the kind of production they collaborated on in Green Bay.

After three straight losses, can this offence finally take off? All eyes will be on Rodgers and Adams as they suit up Sunday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Minnesota’s turned the NFC North on its head

The NFC North had all the makings of being this year’s toughest division, and with all four teams recording at least four wins through the first six weeks it’s definitely lived up to the hype. But while we were all debating between the Detroit Lions and Packers when projecting which club would lead the group, no one guessed it would be the Minnesota Vikings.

Yet, here we are, the team in purple pacing its peers at 5-0 through six weeks and ready to defend its place atop the North as the Vikings return from a Week 6 bye to face the Lions this Sunday. Minnesota is one of just two undefeated teams left in the league (the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are the other) and in addition to sitting atop the NFL standings, they’re landing atop power rankings, too. They’ve been tested plenty, with the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, and Packers all trying and failing to best the Vikings in the early goings of 2024. 

Sam Darnold’s playing his best football — yet more evidence of head coach Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-whispering ways — but the defence has been even more impressive and is, in fact, the real deal. The Vikings lead the league in interceptions (11, in just five games) and pick-6s (two), and are allowing opposing QBs a completion rate of just 60.4 per cent. Their pass rush is pretty lethal, too, recording 20 sacks through five games — tied with the Jets for third best.

Jayden Daniels is already a star

For the second straight year, the second-overall draft pick is stealing all the headlines one third of the way into the season. After C.J. Stroud made an early statement with the upstart Texans last fall, this time it’s Jayden Daniels’ turn to do the same in Washington.

While largely considered pro-ready when Washington drafted him just one slot after the Chicago Bears selected fellow QB Caleb Williams, Daniels’ reputation as a runner cast some doubt on his ability to sling the ball. But we needn’t have worried — he’s thriving while throwing.

Six games into his rookie campaign, he’s got the Commanders sitting atop the NFC East with a 4-2 record. He leads the league in completion percentage (75.3), sits fourth in both passer rating (107.1) and yards per attempt among QBs with 1,000-plus passing yards, and is ninth in passing yardage (1,404), with just two interceptions.

Like Stroud last year, Daniels is also making everyone around him better, bringing to life an offence we didn’t know much about prior to Week 1. He makes wide receiver Terry McLaurin pretty scary — the No. 1 WR has 29 catches for 356 yards and four TDs while Daniels’ dynamic rushing ability is a nightmare for opposing defences, too. With 322 rushing yards so far this season, he’s just three shy of the team lead and ranks second league-wide among QBs behind Baltimore Ravens star Lamar Jackson.

A third of the way into the season, the offensive rookie of the year award conversation starts and ends in Washington and if he can keep this going, murmurs of MVP might just start up, too.

Henry’s turning back the clock

When Derrick Henry signed a three-year pact to team up with Jackson in Baltimore, all signs pointed to the two-time rushing king experiencing a bit of a career resurgence after eight years in Tennessee. But did anyone see quite this level of success coming?

Six games into 2024, Henry leads the NFL in pretty much every rushing category — attempts (119), yards (704), touchdowns (eight), 20-plus yard runs (eight), and first-down runs (35). The 30-year-old has already won AFC offensive player of the week twice, sandwiching Jackson’s Week 5 award for three straight Ravens awards on offence, and is on pace for some of his best career numbers while already making history.

A little simple math tells us Henry’s average of 117 yards per game puts him on pace for his second highest single-season total (he ran for 2,027 in 2020) and not far off from setting a new personal best. He’s averaging nearly 20 carries a game, and if he keeps that up he’ll have his third highest career carries total.

Henry’s never been a prototypical RB — his size, his running style, and that stiff arm all stand out. So maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise to see him also defying the unwritten rules of running backs’ career longevity.

49ers look vulnerable, and they’re not alone

The 49ers delivered fantasy football fans one heck of a Week 1 shock with the announcement that Christian McCaffrey was sidelined with what was then suspected to be a calf issue. Six weeks into the season, the star running back still hasn’t suited up, and has instead traveled to Germany to seek a solution to his Achilles tendinitis. While his team rallied out of the gates, with backup Jordan Mason launching his career, the San Francisco squad has dealt with its share of early-season injuries and it’s got the 49ers looking vulnerable.

Is this the year they take a step back? They’re already 1-2 in divisional matchups, though lucky for them, the team best-equipped to surpass the 49ers in the NFC West standings is the one they bested last Sunday. They’re now tied with Seattle with matching 3-3 records while the roller-coaster Arizona Cardinals (2-4) and injury-riddled Los Angeles Rams (1-4) sit at the bottom.

Look at the current NFC standings, and it’s clear the 49ers aren’t the only should-be contender looking vulnerable. The 3-3 Dallas Cowboys are making headlines for all the wrong reasons and look like a far cry from last year’s dynamic squad.

There’s still plenty of season left, and we’ve still got plenty to learn about all 32 teams. But with a six-week sample size, it’s worth wondering whether either of these two squads might be taking a step back.