NFL championship-round player props: Burrow to keep rolling vs. Chiefs

We head into Championship Sunday going a solid 2-1 last week during divisional-round Sunday. Let’s try to stay on the winning side of things and get hot heading into the Super Bowl!

I’ve done all the work for you here in case you want to be a champion on Championship Sunday!

Here are some of the plays that could (hopefully) make your Sunday even more fun!

Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 32-29 (-3.50 units)

Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs 3:00 p.m. ET

Wager(s) to watch: QB Joe Burrow total passing yards (Over 288.5 -130, Under 288.5 -110), Joe Burrow total pass completions (Over 24.5 -115, Under 24.5 -125)

The Bengals visit Kansas City for the annual ‘Arrowhead Invitational’ aka the AFC Championship game today. Cincinnati upended the Chiefs 34-31 in Week 17 and are looking to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1989. Joe Burrow will need to have another solid performance if the Bengals want to advance, so we want to discuss his total passing and completions props here.

Burrow is fresh off completing 28 of 37 passes for 348 yards in the Bengals’ 19-16 divisional-round win over the Titans last Saturday. The 25-year-old quarterback leads the NFL with 8.8 passing yards per attempt this season which includes the playoffs. The first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft has also been the model of consistency lately. Burrow has completed at least 28 passes and threw for over 348 yards in three of his last four starts. He also roasted the Chiefs for 446 passing yards on 30 of 39 completions in that Week 17 victory in Cincy.

Burrow has also been generating big passing plays all season. He has 60 completions that have travelled at least 20 yards and 15 that have exceeded 40 yards. Cincinnati’s signal caller has had six games that have exceeded 300-plus yards passing, and three that have gone over the 400-yard mark. He’s also been incredibly accurate this season. Burrow leads the league with a 70.7 per cent completion percentage. Let’s dip into a little bit of his advanced metrics, too. Burrow’s average target depth is 8.5 yards and the average for receiver yards after catch is 6.2 yards which are both above league average.

The Kansas City defence was barbequed by Buffalo’s Josh Allen last week. Allen was 27 of 37 for 329 yards in the Chiefs’ thrilling 42-36 overtime win. KC had the 27th ranked passing defence this season by surrendering 251.9 yards per game. The Chiefs’ were slightly better at home this season by giving up 243.5 passing yards per game. Kansas City, though, has also been riding the struggle bus when it comes to shutting down signal callers lately. KC has surrendered 2,102 passing yards to QBs over the past eight weeks which is DEAD LAST in the NFL over that time span. Kansas City has allowed 203 completions to quarterbacks, which is also DEAD LAST in the league over the past eight weeks.

Pick: This game has the potential to be another shoot-out in Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs racked up 552 total yards last week against the Bills. The Bengals might be playing catch up or even trying to match Kansas City’s offence which could mean a big day for Joe Burrow. He also had a monster day against the Chiefs earlier this month. I like the total passing yards of 288.5 to go OVER at -130, and his total pass completions of 24.5 to go OVER at -115.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams 6:30 p.m. ET

Wager to watch: WR Odell Beckham Jr. total receiving yards (Over 53.5 -130, Under 53.5 -110)

The 49ers are trying to beat the Rams for the third time this season and advance to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. Los Angeles is trying to get back to the big game after losing Super Bowl 53 to Tom Brady and the Patriots. The Rams are the first team to host a conference championship game in the same stadium that will host the Super Bowl. That’s cool, but we want to focus in on Odell Beckham Jr.’s total receiving yards prop here.

Beckham caught six passes for 69 yards on eight targets in Los Angeles’ 30-27 nail-biting win over the Buccaneers in the divisional-round last Sunday. Since joining the Rams, O-B-J has been producing week in and week out. Beckham Jr. has 37 receptions for 428 yards in 10 games. The 29-year-old wide receiver continues to be a favourite target of Matthew Stafford. O-B-J has seen at least five targets in seven of his last nine games totalling 57 targets. You want some of his advanced metrics? Sure, you do! Beckham Jr. is above league average by earning 1.65 air yards per snap with an average depth of target of 12.5 yards. O-B-J had only two catches for 18 yards on five targets against San Francisco in their Week 18 matchup at SoFi Stadium.

The 49ers, meanwhile, gave up 225 passing yards to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Saturday night in their 13-10 victory at chilly Lambeau Field. San Francisco allowed Green Bay No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams to catch nine balls for 90 yards on 11 targets. The Niners will focus on shutting down triple-crown winner Cooper Kupp, which could open things up for Beckham Jr. San Fran has coughed up 515 receiving yards to WRs over their past four games which ranks 25th in the NFL over that span. The 49ers have also allowed 44 receptions to wide-outs over their past four games which ranks 27th in the NFL in that time span.

Pick: This once again is all about the Niners trying to limit Cooper Kupp. Although Beckham Jr. had only 18 yards in Week 18 versus San Fran, he still saw five targets. I don’t think that oddsmakers have adjusted to his prop totals based on his production and target share. This total is too low again for me with his big-play ability. Take Beckham’s receiving total of 53.5 to go OVER at -130.