Super Wild Card Weekend ended up being favourable to those who favoured the over.
The first four games of the opening round of the NFL playoffs easily went over the listed total and the final two games came down to a point or two depending on where and when you placed a wager. Unders bettors lucked out when Cowboys kicker Brett Maher missed four extra points, which had he made even one of them would’ve seen the Dallas-Tampa game go over its 45.5 total.
The underdogs were barking against the spread (ATS) with San Fransisco and Dallas the only favourites to cover. On top of that, the Jags and Giants both pulled off the moneyline upset.
How much will change in the Divisional Round now that we’re down to the NFL’s elite eight?
Here’s a look at each game this weekend with moneyline and ATS odds, totals, some key betting stats and preferred picks (which went 8-7 in the wild-card round) for each matchup.
JAGUARS (+400) @ CHIEFS (-530) | Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Jaguars +9.5/Chiefs -9.5
Total: 53.0
JAX record ATS: 9-9 | Over/Under: 9-9
KC record ATS: 6-10-1 | Over/Under: 8-9
The Chiefs were an ugly 2-5-1 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium this season and need to win the game by double digits to cover. The Chiefs beat the Jags by exactly 10 points when they met in Week 10. Half of Kansas City’s wins this season were by 10 or more. Jacksonville is 8-5 straight up when the listed underdog this season, including last week’s improbable comeback win over the Chargers. Also, Andy Reid’s teams are 27-4 overall when coming off a bye and Trevor Lawrence has never lost on a Saturday.
MJ’s preferred picks: Jaguars +9.5, Under 53.0
GIANTS (+280) @ EAGLES (-340) | Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Giants +7.5/Eagles -7.5
Total: 48.0
NYG record ATS: 14-4 | Over/Under: 8-9-1
PHI record ATS: 8-9 | Over/Under: 10-7
Brian Daboll’s Giants have been covering machines in the role of the underdog all season. The best ATS team in the NFL, New York went 7-1 ATS specifically when on the road and expected to lose. They covered as 3.0-point dogs and cashed at plus-odds on the moneyline versus Minnesota. Philly was only 1-1 with a rest advantage this season but the extra time off helped several key players heal up from injuries. The Eagles were 6-3 ATS when home chalk but only 3-4 ATS in division games.
MJ’s preferred picks: Giants +7.5, Over 48.0
BENGALS (+235) @ BILLS (-195) | Sunday 3:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Bengals +5.5/Bills -5.5
Total: 49.5
CIN record ATS: 12-5 | Over/Under: 7-9-1
BUF record ATS: 8-8-1 | Over/Under: 7-10
The Cincinnati Bengals were dealt a pair of massive blows Friday with left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa officially ruled out. Joe Burrow helped lead his team to the Super Bowl last season despite a severely compromised offensive line. Can he advance to a second consecutive AFC Championship under similar circumstances? The Bengals were only road dogs once this season and won that game. The Bills have sailed over their total four weeks running. Buffalo has been the listed favourite in every game they've played this season.
MJ’s preferred picks: Bills -5.5, Under 49.5
COWBOYS (+170) @ 49ERS (-200) | Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Cowboys +4.0/49ers -4.0
Total: 46.5
DAL record ATS: 11-7 | Over/Under: 9-9
SF record ATS: 12-6 | Over/Under: 10-8
The 49ers are 8-1 ATS as home favourites; the Cowboys are 2-1 ATS when road dogs and 5-4 ATS overall when playing away from home. San Fran has scored at least 37 points in four consecutive games so it’s no surprise they went over the listed total in all of them. Meanwhile, Cowboys unders have hit in three in a row. Dallas went 2-0 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. Remember, they played in last week’s lone Monday game.
MJ’s preferred picks: 49ers -4.0, Over 46.5
(Odds, plus listed point spreads and totals, via Sports Interaction as of Friday and subject to change; moneyline odds rounded to nearest multiple of five and subject to change; trends via Covers and TeamRankings)
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