The NFL’s regular season is officially one-third in the books and some teams are exactly where we thought they’d be while others have had surprising results – some positive, others negative – heading into Week 7 action.
With that in mind let’s assess the updated futures market and what has changed since prior to Week 1.
UPDATED SUPER BOWL LVII ODDS
Buffalo Bills +275 (odds at start of season: +600)
Philadelphia Eagles +550 (odds at start of season: +2200)
Kansas City Chiefs +750 (odds at start of season: +1000)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200 (odds at start of season: +700)
Los Angeles Chargers +1600 (odds at start of season: +1400)
San Francisco 49ers +1600 (odds at start of season: +1500)
Minnesota Vikings +1600 (odds at start of season: +4000)
Baltimore Ravens +1800 (odds at start of season: +1800)
Los Angeles Rams +2000 (odds at start of season: +1000)
Green Bay Packers +2000 (odds at start of season: +1200)
Cincinnati Bengals +2200 (odds at start of season: +1800)
Dallas Cowboys +2800 (odds at start of season: +2200)
New York Giants +4000 (odds at start of season: +8000)
Indianapolis Colts +4000 (odds at start of season: +2500)
Miami Dolphins +4000 (odds at start of season: +3500)
Tennessee Titans +5000 (odds at start of season: +3000)
New England Patriots +5000 (odds at start of season: +3500)
Las Vegas Raiders +6600 (odds at start of season: +3300)
Denver Broncos +7500 (odds at start of season: +1500)
Cleveland Browns +8000 (odds at start of season: +2800)
Jacksonville Jaguars +8000 (odds at start of season: +10000)
New York Jets +8000 (odds at start of season: +12500)
Arizona Cardinals +10000 (odds at start of season: +3000)
New Orleans Saints +10000 (odds at start of season: +3500)
Atlanta Falcons +12500 (odds at start of season: +12500)
Pittsburgh Steelers +15000 (odds at start of season: +8000)
Seattle Seahawks +25000 (odds at start of season: +8000)
Detroit Lions +25000 (odds at start of season: +10000)
Washington Commanders +25000 (odds at start of season: +6600)
Carolina Panthers +50000 (odds at start of season: +6600)
Chicago Bears +50000 (odds at start of season: +10000)
Houston Texans +75000 (odds at start of season: +17500)
The Bills remain the chalk with oddsmakers expecting them to emerge from the AFC ahead of the Chiefs, Chargers and Ravens.
The biggest risers in terms of value – meaning you’re well ahead of the market if you placed a pre-season future on them – are in the NFC and include the 6-0 Eagles and Vikings and Giants, both of whom boast surprising 5-1 records.
Teams that currently boast the best value based on rest-of-season upside include Miami, the Jets, AFC South rivals Indianapolis and Tennessee and perhaps even Atlanta. The Falcons are 3-3 and playing solid football in a floundering division yet they have the same 125/1 odds they had prior to the season.
Arizona, New Orleans and Cleveland are among the biggest fallers, however no team has disappointed on the futures market quite like Denver. The Broncos haven’t looked remotely like a playoff team let alone a Super Bowl contender.
TEAM TO FINISH WITH WORST RECORD
Houston Texans +220 | Carolina Panthers +320 | Chicago Bears +400 | Pittsburgh Steelers +800 | Seattle Seahawks +1000 | Washington Commanders +1100 | Detroit Lions +1200
At the other end of the standings, you can bet on which team will finish the season in position to pick first overall in 2023. There are currently four teams with one victory through six weeks; Carolina is the lone 1-5 team. The Texans are exactly where most football pundits figured they’d be following a tumultuous off-season.
UNDEFEATED EAGLES SPECIAL
The Eagles are the last undefeated team of 2022 and there’s a special prop that currently pays out at +1400 if the Eagles finish the regular season 17-0 – that same prop was +2000 prior to a Week 6 win over Dallas. The 2007 Patriots and 1972 Dolphins are the only teams in NFL history to finish the regular season without a loss. Philly should be heavy favourites over the next three opponents (PIT, HOU, WAS) before a tougher four-game stretch against the Colts, Packers, Titans and Giants.
UPDATED MVP ODDS
Josh Allen +150 (odds at start of season: +600)
Jalen Hurts +450 (odds at start of season: +2500)
Patrick Mahomes +550 (odds at start of season: +750)
Lamar Jackson +800 (odds at start of season: +2000)
Justin Herbert +1600 (odds at start of season: +900)
Joe Burrow +2800 (odds at start of season: +1200)
Kirk Cousins +4000 (odds at start of season: +5000)
Tom Brady +4000 (odds at start of season: +800)
Aaron Rodgers +5000 (odds at start of season: +750)
As the odds above indicate, it’s essentially becoming a four-horse race with franchise QBs leading the pack. Allen was the chalk ahead of the season and just like his team, remains the rightful favourite. Past MVPs Mahomes and Jackson have been key in each of their teams’ respective victories but haven’t been as consistent as Buffalo’s pivot who leads the league in both passing yards and touchdowns.
Allen’s biggest competition, and the biggest riser up the board through six games has been Jalen Hurts. The Eagles star is the only 6-0 starter, although he has the luxury of leaning on his team’s excellent rushing attack and a stout defence. Buffalo also has a top defensive unit but more has been required of Allen relative of what the Eagles are asking of Hurts.
Four-time and reigning back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers plus three-time MVP Tom Brady have taken steps back this season. Their Hall of Fame reputations are what’s keeping them among the top 10 contenders for the time being.
There’s a dearth of legitimate longshot MVP candidates, but both Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray at +8000 odds could be a couple. Tagovailoa missed several weeks due to a concussion but prior to his injuries he and the Dolphins had shown plenty of promise. If Tua can get back to how he was playing in the first three weeks and Miami can challenge Buffalo in the AFC East then who knows? Murray is getting DeAndre Hopkins back, which could help turn Murray and that struggling team around.
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
The most recent NFL Draft was dominated by stud receivers yet the frontrunners for offensive rookie of the year are all running backs.
Breece Hall (+260) of the Jets was the first RB off the board at the draft and he is pacing the rookie field after reaching the end zone in four of the past five games. Dameon Pierce (+450) is at the centre of Houston’s offence and will continue seeing plenty of touches, while Kenneth Walker (+700) has taken over the starting role in Seattle and his volume could see him remain a contender. Washington’s Brian Robinson Jr. (+1200) is the only other running back with odds shorter than 20/1.
Saints’ Chris Olave (+900), Falcons’ Drake London (+1200), Jets’ Garrett Wilson (+1200), Packers’ Romeo Doubs (+1200) and Steelers’ George Pickens (+1600) are the top-listed rookie WRs, while Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett (+1400) and New England’s Bailey Zappe (+1400) are the lone QBs worth consideration at this point of the season.
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
On the other side of the ball, five first-year defenders have stood out. Jets’ Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner (+300) is leading the way and it’s not surprising since he has played like one of the best lockdown cornerbacks the NFL has seen in years. Fellow 2022 first-round picks Devin Lloyd (+550), Kayvon Thibodeaux (+600), Travon Walker (+900) and Aidan Hutchinson (+900) have also shone. Seahawks’ ballhawk Tariq Woolen (+650) is enjoying an incredible start to his NFL career with four consecutive games recording an interception. He’s the only non-first-round pick among the frontrunners.
UPDATED DIVISION TITLE ODDS
AFC NORTH
Ravens -140 (odds at start of season: +140)
Bengals +190 (odds at start of season: +170)
Browns +750 (odds at start of season: +360)
Steelers +1800 (odds at start of season: +850)
AFC SOUTH
Colts +110 (odds at start of season: -140)
Titans +160 (odds at start of season: +150)
Jaguars +380 (odds at start of season: +800)
Texans +3300 (odds at start of season: +2800)
AFC EAST
Bills -1000 (odds at start of season: -230)
Dolphins +1400 (odds at start of season: +400)
Patriots +1400 (odds at start of season: +500)
Jets +1800 (odds at start of season: +2200)
AFC WEST
Chiefs -188 (odds at start of season: +160)
Chargers +190 (odds at start of season: +225)
Broncos +1800 (odds at start of season: +260)
Raiders +2000 (odds at start of season: +650)
NFC NORTH
Packers +240 (odds at start of season: -200)
Vikings -300 (odds at start of season: +275)
Lions +4000 (odds at start of season: +900)
Bears +6600 (odds at start of season: +1200)
NFC SOUTH
Buccaneers -550 (odds at start of season: -300)
Falcons +650 (odds at start of season: +2500)
Saints +900 (odds at start of season: +350)
Panthers +5000 (odds at start of season: +1000)
NFC EAST
Eagles -400 (odds at start of season: +150)
Cowboys +550 (odds at start of season: +140)
Giants +650 (odds at start of season: +500)
Commanders +15000 (odds at start of season: +800)
NFC WEST
49ers +105 (odds at start of season: +170)
Rams +137 (odds at start of season: +130)
Cardinals +1000 (odds at start of season: +333)
Seahawks +1000 (odds at start of season: +1400)
MORE FROM SPORTSNET
(Betting odds via Bet365 and subject to change)
COMMENTS
When submitting content, please abide by our submission guidelines, and avoid posting profanity, personal attacks or harassment. Should you violate our submissions guidelines, we reserve the right to remove your comments and block your account. Sportsnet reserves the right to close a story’s comment section at any time.