NFL Quarterback Carousel 2023: How and where might the dominos fall?

We are one year removed from an unexpectedly wild NFL off-season chock full of major moves at the quarterback position that ended up impacting most teams across the league — even if in just a small way.

Included in last spring’s flurry of QB activity: Tom Brady retiring, then unretiring and returning to the Buccaneers for one more go; Aaron Rodgers re-upping with the Packers following a whirlwind of rumours that he was on his way out (sound familiar?); the Browns inking Deshaun Watson to a massive, guaranteed deal in the wake of his personal conduct suspension, which led to Baker Mayfield joining the Panthers; Russell Wilson being traded from Seattle to Denver in a blockbuster that preceded an ugly inaugural season with the Broncos; Atlanta trading longtime starter Matt Ryan to the Colts while Carson Wentz went from Indy to Washington.

Well, the QB carousel is off to another dramatic start in 2023. This year, the first significant domino to fall — besides Brady’s latest (and seemingly final) retirement announcement — involved Derek Carr. Las Vegas decided late last season they’d be moving on from the 2014 second-round pick who made four Pro Bowls with the Raiders, including this past year. Carr wouldn’t agree to be traded so the Raiders cut the nine-year starter before they were required to pay him a $40-million bonus. The 31-year-old then signed a four-year deal with New Orleans, which effectively removes Jameis Winston from the starter’s conversation. The team has offered Winston a restructured contract that he has until March 15 to accept, otherwise he’ll be released to alleviate salary cap pressure.

Carr isn’t the only one with a fresh new contract. Daniel Jones of the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks starter Geno Smith, both of whom were poised to hit the open market, re-signed with their respective clubs.

Jones, who is coming off his rookie deal and the most complete season of his pro career, agreed to a four-year extension just prior to the franchise tag deadline which meant the team was able to instead tag running back Saquon Barkley to keep both players on the roster.

Smith, meanwhile, earned a lucrative three-year deal with Seattle following his Comeback Player of the Year campaign. This means New Orleans, Seattle and half of the teams playing out of MetLife Stadium are not in the market for a new starter.

Houston needs a new quarterback but they’re a team that could look to the draft to solve that problem; they have the No. 2 pick. Indianapolis, Las Vegas and Carolina also need new starting pivots and all three are currently slated to pick in the top 10 spots. (UPDATE: The Panthers traded D.J. Moore and haul of picks, including No. 9 overall this year to Chicago for the No. 1 pick.)

Washington and Tampa and should also have new starters by Week 1. The Rams GM gave Matt Stafford a vote of confidence this week but L.A. could also seek a veteran arm as insurance for Stafford’s health.

Which teams will be most aggressive in pursuing free agents and which teams will end up waiting until the draft? With a handful of transactions already official and free agency right around the corner, here are the most notable quarterbacks we’ll be keeping an eye on in the coming days and weeks.

STARTERS THAT COULD MAKE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT

Lamar Jackson: The 26-year-old is reportedly seeking a fully guaranteed contact similar to the one Deshaun Watson signed with Cleveland in 2022. The soonest Jackson, who represents himself, can begin negotiating with interested teams is Mar. 15 — the league’s official negotiation window, which opens Monday, only applies to unrestricted free agents. The Ravens used a non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson earlier this week, which further complicates the process as the any team considering swooping in to sign him will need to also hand over two first-round picks.

Aaron Rodgers: If Rodgers’ days in Green Bay are in fact numbered this time, it appears the clear frontrunners to land the future Hall of Famer are the Jets. New York had previously been linked to Carr, but once Carr went to New Orleans the team turned its full attention to Rodgers. New York brass met with Rodgers in California earlier this week to recruit the four-time MVP. The Jets have one of the best young rosters in football yet the quarterback position was among their weakest this past season. Rodgers can veto any proposed trade he is involved in if doesn’t fully approve.

It’s not just the Jets’ front office staff pulling out all the stops Rodgers, either…

Jimmy Garoppolo: The former 49ers starter has reportedly been linked to the Raiders, Panthers and Texans. His pocket style would be a natural fit for the systems in Las Vegas and Carolina. He’d feel more like a stopgap option with rebuilding Houston – especially if the Texans target one of the top QB prospects in April’s draft. Jimmy G led the 49ers to two NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl appearance and is coming off a broken foot that ended his 2022 campaign in December.
(UPDATE: Garoppolo agreed to a three-year deal with the Raiders)

EXPERIENCED VETERANS LOOKING FOR THEIR NEXT TEAM

None of the QBs in this tier are very mobile but they know how to effectively run an offence. Dalton, Brissett and Ryan were mentioned by Michael Silver of Bally Sports as three possible backup options for the 49ers, who’ll have Brock Purdy and Trey Lance on the roster.

Jacoby Brissett: A high-floor, low-ceiling starter or a dependable backup, Brissett filled in admirably in Cleveland while Watson was serving his suspension.

Teddy Bridgewater: Has been on five teams over the past six years. Made two starts with Miami in 2022 after a respectable year as Denver’s starter in 2021.

Andy Dalton: Could join his fourth different team since 2020. He can still throw an accurate ball when given time – he went 6-8 with the Saints last season after taking over as starter, setting a new career high in completion percentage at age 35.

Matt Ryan: Coming off far and away his worst season in the NFL. He only threw one more touchdown than he did interceptions last season, but his football IQ could still be of value to teams both in the locker room and as a mentor to young QBs.

FORMER STARTERS LOOKING FOR ANOTHER SHOT

All four QBs in this tier were each selected with a top-three pick in their respective draft classes.

Jameis Winston: As mentioned above, the Saints might not be able to keep Winston as an expensive backup, so the 2015 first-overall pick may be added to the lengthy list of available QBs. Winston hasn’t made more than seven appearances in a season since the 2019 campaign.
(UPDATE: Winston is re-signing with the Saints for one year at $8 million)

Sam Darnold: He threw double-digit interceptions in each of his first four seasons. Darnold only suited up for the final six games of the Panthers’ 2022 schedule but finished 4-2 in those games, averaging a career-high 8.2 yards per attempt.
(UPDATE: Darnold agreed to a one-year deal with the 49ers)

Baker Mayfield: Another former No. 1 who started a handful of games last season. He went 1-5 with Carolina before being traded to the Rams, where he was 1-3.

Carson Wentz: Fell out of favour in Washington due to his frequent follies and turnovers after a solid showing in his one year with the Colts in 2021. Wentz is 46-45-1 as an NFL starter.

BACKUPS WITH SOME STARTING EXPERIENCE

Taylor Heinecke, Mason Rudolph, Mike White, Cooper Rush, Gardner Minshew: These are the types of guys you wouldn’t feel comfortable naming your Week 1 starter, yet you’d probably feel okay in the short term if they were pushed into action a handful of times throughout the season. They’ve all been called upon to start in the past and have had stretches of success behind centre.
(UPDATE: White agreed to join the Dolphins on a two-year deal)