NFL Week 10 By The Numbers: Good luck stopping Ravens' Lamar Jackson

As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.

Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of the upcoming week in the NFL.

1. Time for a bye

The bye week last week couldn’t have come at a better time for the reeling San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco has three straight losses and have now fallen out of first place in the NFC West. The issues have mainly been offensive as they haven’t scored more than 17 points in the last three games. The blame on that side of the ball can be shared among their leaders. Brock Purdy has thrown five interceptions in the last four games. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is now 1-31 when trailing by three or more points entering the fourth quarter.

2. Quarterback shuffle

With Clayton Tune of the Arizona Cardinals and Jaren Hall of the Minnesota Vikings starting last Sunday, there have been nine rookie quarterbacks who started a game through the first nine weeks of the season. The NFL record for a full season is nine.

Panthers: Bryce Young

Texans: CJ Stroud

Colts: Anthony Richardson

Titans: Will Levis

Raiders: Aidan O'Connell

Browns: Dorian Thompson-Robinson

Bears: Tyson Bagent

Cardinals: Clayton Tune

Vikings: Jaren Hall

The four new starters in Week 9 brought us to 49 total, which is the most through nine weeks since 1950. Both Tune and Hall won’t be starting this week as they’ll be replaced by former Cardinal QB Josh Dobbs (with the Vikings) and current Cardinals QB Kyler Murray. Murray starting this week will bring the number to 50. The Los Angeles Rams are on a bye but if Mathew Stafford can’t play due to his thumb injury newly signed backup Carson Wentz could make that number balloon to 51 next week.

3. Jackson via air and ground

Hard not to look at Lamar Jackson as the MVP favourite midway through the season. The Baltimore Ravens QB is completing 71.5 per cent of his passes and is on pace to rush for over 800 yards. No quarterback has never done both in a single season. In fact, no QB has ever completed over 70 per cent of his passes and rushed for 500 yards in a season. Jackson might do that after this weekend. The Louisville product has missed five games in each of the last two last two seasons, so durability is the only remaining question about his game.

4. Good news, bad news Bills

In football you are what your record says you are. Despite having Super Bowl expectations, the Buffalo Bills have already amassed four losses. The good news is those losses are by a combined 21 points. They are right there with the best teams in the league. The bad news is they have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL. Buffalo hasn’t missed the playoffs since Josh Allen's rookie season in 2018. That streak is in jeopardy.

5. Mahomes targeting wide receivers this season

You can make an argument that Patrick Mahomes has never been better, and his receivers have never been worse. His numbers when targeting Kansas City Chiefs receivers tell the story. The reigning MVP's off-target percentage when throwing to wide receivers is 14 per cent, which is the best of his career. But he’s sitting on career lows in every other major category. Throwing to wide receivers, Mahomes has a TD-interception ratio of 7-5, which is by far his worst. His completion percentage to wide receivers of 64 per cent is his second worst. Why? The drop percentage of his passes to wide receivers is eight per cent which is also his worst. In short, Mahomes has never been more accurate, and his receivers have never dropped more catchable balls.

6. Generational K.C. D

While the Chiefs have had issues on offence, it's been a different story on the other side of the ball. The defence is giving up 15.9 points per game, which is their best since 2013. The 288.2 yards per game they’re allowing is the best since 1998.

7. Home-sick Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins are much better at home than on the road. Miami averages 43 points per game and is 4-0 at home. On the road, the Dolphins average 22 points and have a 2-3 record. Versus teams currently over .500, Miami is 0-3 putting up 309.7 yards per game. That includes losses to Buffalo, Philadelphia and Kansas City. Versus teams currently under .500, they are 6-0, averaging 498.3 yards per game and 39 points per game. The Dolphins will likely have to beat good teams away from home if they want to get to the Super Bowl.

8. The Jets offence started from the bottom and are still there

The New York Jets just might have the worst offence in the NFL. They have just eight offensive touchdowns this season and are the only team averaging under 15 first downs per game, coming in at 14.9. That’s tied for fewest after eight games in team history. Their third-down conversion percentage of 22 per cent is last. Their QBR of 32.4 also ranks last in the NFL. They are also second from the bottom in yards per game with 272.9. The main reason for the issues is the amount of pressure on Zach Wilson and his inability to deal with it. Wilson has been pressured on 33 per cent or more of drop backs in six games. That pressure generally comes when he doesn't make quick decisions. The Jets' recent loss to the Los Angeles Chargers was a great example. When he held the ball for under 2.5 seconds, he was 20-for-22, with six yards per drop back and zero sacks. When the number rose to over 2.5 seconds Wilson was just 12-for-25, for 1.9 yards per drop back and eight sacks.

9. Eagles winning with win rate

Why are the Philadelphia Eagles winning consistently? They dominate the lines of scrimmage as their win rates suggest. The Eagles run-block win rate is 77 per cent, good for first in the NFL. Their pass-block win rate is almost 65 per cent, which is fourth. Defensively, their pass-rush win rate is 54 per cent and their run-stop win rate is 33 per cent, both fifth best in the league.

10. Trevor Lawrence in a zone

Trevor Lawrence eats up zone coverage. Against zone this season, the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback has a 77 QBR (first), 77 completion percentage (second) and a 7-1 TD-interception ratio (tied for second). Which makes his matchup this week with San Francisco interesting as the 49ers defence plays zone at the sixth highest rate in the NFL. To start the year, that was a good thing. In their first six games, their defence has a 42 QBR, 70 per-cent completion percentage and 5.5 yards per attempt when playing zone. In the last three games, those numbers ballooned to 56 per cent QBR, 81 per-cent completion and 6.8 yards per attempt, which is worst in the league. It will be tough to slow down Lawrence if San Francisco is in zone coverage.