NFL Week 11 By the Numbers: Don't write off Bryce Young just yet

As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.

Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space. Here are 10 stats that will tell the story for Week 11 in the NFL.

1. Bryce Young is still ... young

It's been a tough start to his career for Bryce Young as a No. 1 overall pick, but there is no need to write him off yet. First-overall pick QBs tend to struggle early while on bad teams without much help. In his first eight games of his rookie season with the Carolina Panthers, Young has eight passing TDs, seven interceptions, 62.8 completion percentage with a 75.9 QB rating and a 1-7 record. Compare that with Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season. After his first eight games, Lawrence had eight passing TDs, seven interceptions, 59.5 completion percentage, a 73.6 QB rating and a 2-6 record. Lawrence was scrutinized early but bounced back over time. Young should be afforded the opportunity to do the same.

2. Stroud off to a legendary start

The other highly touted rookie QB who went right after Young in the draft has not needed as much time to assimilate. The Texans' C.J. Stroud is already among the best in the game. The only QBs to lead the NFL in pass yards per game and TD-to-interception ratio through the first 10 weeks of a season since the 1970 merger are Stroud, Patrick Mahomes (2019), Tom Brady (2015) and Peyton Manning (2013). So, essentially as a rookie, he’s performing like the best QBs of all-time in their prime. Stroud certainly deserves to be in the MVP conversation.

3. Rookie university

We shouldn’t be surprised Stroud has started so fast because his alma mater, Ohio State, is known as Rookie University. The Buckeyes are arguably the best program at producing young, impactful NFL talent in all of college football. Players who came out of the program:

• 2016 defensive rookie of the year Joey Bosa, Chargers.

• 2017 defensive rookie of the year Marshon Lattimore, New Orleans Saints.

• 2019 defensive rookie of the year Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers.

• 2020 defensive rookie of the year Chase Young, Washington Commanders.

• 2022 offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (and if he didn’t win it, it would have gone to Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints).

• And it is all but certain the 2023 offensive rookie of the year will be Stroud.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Marvin Harrison Jr. takes the 2024 offensive rookie of the year award away as well. If you want a young stud in the NFL, draft a Buckeye.

4. Bills are turnover-prone

Turnovers remain the biggest issue for the Buffalo Bills. They started the season doing a great job in this area and, thus, were winning. During their first four games, the Bills were minus-1, averaging 34.8 points per game and four turnovers. They just experienced their fifth home game with four-plus turnovers. Unsurprisingly, they are 0-5 in those games.

The Bills' four turnovers versus Denver on Monday shouldn’t be a surprise because it was their sixth multi-turnover game this season. In the last six games, they are just 2-4, averaging 20.5 points per game with 13 turnovers, the most in the NFL.

The main culprit is their quarterback and highest-paid player, Josh Allen, who has thrown an interception in six straight games, the longest streak by a Bills quarterback since Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2011. Allen’s 14 turnovers and 11 interceptions are both the most in the NFL. The Bills have 18 turnovers this season, tied for second most in the NFL.

5. Ken Dorsey was a scapegoat

Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was relived of his duties this week, but the numbers say that decision was misguided. Dorsey was the offensive coordinator for 26 games and the Bills were 18-6 in that span. Not only did they win, the offence was the reason they won. The Bills offence through Week 10 was great. The Bills offence ranks third in DVOA, first in success rate, third in EPA play, third in yards per play, second in third-down conversion percentage and third in red-zone efficiency. The Bills are running out of coordinators to fire and time to turn around their season.

6. Lawrence losing the ball

Allen isn’t the only up-and-coming QB struggling with turnovers in the AFC. Lawrence has nine touchdown passes and 10 turnovers. That’s not the ratio you want from your franchise QB. The turnovers have proved to be costly. The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost 57 expected points on turnovers in the opposition territory, by far the most in the league, as the league average is 24. There are only two teams with more than 30. They had 16 alone in their recent loss versus San Francisco.

7. Lamb for OPY

Don’t count out CeeDee Lamb in the NFL offensive player of the year race just yet. It seemed if the award went to a receiver, it was a lock to be A.J. Brown or Tyreke Hill, who were flirting with a 2,000-yard receiving season out the gate. But of late, Lamb has been the most productive offensive player. When you look at who has the most receiving yards in the last four games, Lamb tops the list at 617 yards, well in front of Amon-Ra St. Brown with 490 yards, Brown (464) and Hill (425). Lamb's total is the most in a four-game span in Dallas Cowboys history.

8. Muted Mahomes

Watching Mahomes is like watching a hummingbird stuck in a cage. His talent is being wasted by his constraints. In Kansas City, that would be the lack of dominant receiver talent at his disposal. The Chiefs offence has been held under 300 yards in their last two games, the first time that's happened since 2016. (Mahomes was in his final season at Texas Tech in 2016.) This has been the least-productive offence of Mahomes' illustrious career; none of his top 50 games by success rate have come this season.

Without a true No. 1 receiver, Mahomes has had to spread the ball around. In six different games this year, Mahomes threw to at least 10 different pass catchers. That’s the most ever, and we still have eight games left in the season. The 144.4 receiving yards per game he’s thrown to his wide receivers this year is 19th in the NFL. Despite all that, Mahomes still has put up a 73 total QBR, good enough for second in the NFL.

9. Beating the blitz is the key

This week’s marquee matchup is a Super Bowl rematch, and it will likely come down to beating blitz pressure. The Chiefs specialize in defensive-back blitzes, which just so happen to be kryptonite for the Philadelphia Eagles and Jalen Hurts. Against blitzing DBs, Hurts ranks 30th in completion percentage, 28th in yards per attempt 28th and 26th in QBR.

The Chiefs defence, on the other hand, ranks first in completion percentage and yards per attempt and second in QBR when blitzing DBs. Expect Hurts to have ample opportunity to improve his number against a secondary blitz.

10. Achane a change of pace

The Miami Dolphins are expected to get De’Von Achane back off the IR this week. Their offence has been good without him, but his presence on the field takes their ceiling offensively to another level. When Achane has been on the field, which accounts for 18 per cent of Miami’s offensive plays, the Dolphins are averaging 9.8 yards per attempt and 55 per cent third-down percentage. When Achane has been off the field, which accounts for 82 per cent of the Dolphins' offensive plays, their yards per play dropped to 6.5 and the third-down percentage fell to 38 per cent. That’s a wild swing in production, even when adjusted for the sample size.