NFL Week 11 Preview: Can Bills end Chiefs' undefeated season?

Josh Allen isn't getting caught up in the hype.

With the Buffalo Bills hosting the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in the season's most anticipated regular-season matchup, Buffalo's franchise QB claims he's treating it like any other game.

“It’s a Week 11 game. It’s no bigger or no less than the last 10 games we’ve had,” Allen told reporters this week. “I know the media perception, the fan perception and what this game means, but for us, it’s just Week 11 for us.” 

Nice try, Josh.

Despite what Allen would have you think, this isn't just your run-of-the-mill Week 11 game, not even close.

Sunday's game between the Chiefs (9-0) and Bills (8-2) will have the best combined record in a Week 11 contest since the Chiefs (9-1) and Los Angeles Rams (9-1) squared off in 2018. You may remember that game, which the Rams won 54-51 in what many have called the greatest regular-season game in NFL history.

That's a high bar to reach, but when the Bills and Chiefs clash, just about anything seems possible.

It's fair to say that the Chiefs have had the upper hand in this AFC rivalry. After all, three of Buffalo's last four seasons have ended in heartbreaking playoff losses to Mahomes and the Chiefs.

But let's not forget that it's actually the Bills who have won the last three regular-season matchups between the two conference powerhouses. They'd love nothing more to make it four in a row on Sunday, which would both end the Chiefs' undefeated season and give the Bills the tiebreaker in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.

It won't come easy for the Bills, though, as this Chiefs team has an uncanny ability to win football games by whatever means necessary.

It hasn't always been pretty for the Chiefs this season. Their Week 10 win over the Denver Broncos was a prime example, as they needed a last-second field goal block to seal the win.

But 9-0 is 9-0, and with a win Sunday, the Chiefs would set a new mark for the best start to a season in franchise history.

Meanwhile, the Bills are on a run of their own. Buffalo has won five straight and has essentially already locked up the AFC East division.

Just another game? Yeah, right.

A regular-season game with this kind of magnitude doesn't come around very often.

And while a Buffalo win wouldn't erase the years of playoff heartbreak, it would certainly be a good start.

Can Chiefs really stay perfect?

Bills fans, skip this part.

Let's just say the Chiefs win Sunday and improve to 10-0. What does their path to an undefeated season actually look like?

Here is their remaining schedule:

Week 12: @ Panthers (3-7)
Week 13: vs. Raiders (2-7)
Week 14: vs. Chargers (6-3)
Week 15: @ Browns (2-7)
Week 16: vs. Texans (6-4)
Week 17: @ Steelers (7-2)
Week 18: @ Broncos (5-5)

Twelve straight wins look almost like a certainty, as the Chiefs will be heavy favourites against the Raiders and Panthers.

Divisional matchups are never a sure thing, so both the Week 14 matchup with the Chargers and their regular-season finale with the Broncos are possible pitfalls.

But the Chiefs' toughest test remaining is certainly the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day.

Another thing to consider is if the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed locked up by Week 18, do they rest their starters and risk the undefeated season? As cool as joining the 1972 Miami Dolphins would be, becoming the first team in league history to win three straight Super Bowls is definitely higher on the priority list.

It's highly unlikely the Chiefs even have to make that kind of decision, but wouldn't it be fun if they had to?

AFC North showdown

When you think Ravens-Steelers, it's hard not to think hard-nosed, defensive football.

In the last five matchups between the two AFC North division rivals, no team has scored more than 20 points.

However, don't expect that trend to continue this Sunday.

The Ravens' offence looks nearly unstoppable these days, and QB Lamar Jackson is currently the odds-on favourite to bring home this season's NFL MVP award. Over the Ravens' past eight games, Jackson has thrown 22 touchdowns with just one interception.

But with how poor their defence has been, particularly in the passing game, the Ravens have needed Jackson playing at an MVP level to save them in a number of games.

Baltimore's secondary has allowed an NFL-high 22 completions on passes 20 or more yards downfield, which doesn't bode well for Sunday's matchup with the Steelers.

Since Steelers QB Russell Wilson returned to the starter's gig in Week 7, he ranks sixth in the league in total EPA gained on throws of 20-plus yards despite only playing three games, per NFL's Next Gen Stats.

All signs point to some fireworks.

The winner of this game will move into first place in the AFC North, and it very well could just come down to which team has the ball last.

Game to Watch: Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) — Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

There's no debating what Week 11's game of the week is. That title belongs to Chiefs-Bills.

But Sunday's primetime matchup is like a tasty dessert after a delicious main course.

The Bengals and Chargers matchup is a classic strength-on-strength battle. The Bengals' offence has been on fire as of late and goes up against a Chargers defence that is allowing a league-low 13.1 points a game.

Cincinnati also welcomes back its No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins Sunday after a three-week absence, giving QB Joe Burrow even more weapons to work with.

The Chargers will likely have to score some points to keep pace, which should be doable with Justin Herbert playing some of the best football of his career. Since Week 7, Herbert's 94.4 PFF passing grade leads the league.

But a key to this game could be the Bengals' desperation. At 4-6, the Bengals can't afford many more slip-ups if they want to stay in the AFC playoff race.

They are currently on the outside looking in of the AFC wild-card picture. The Chargers just happen to be one of the teams they're chasing.

Sunday could very well be a make-or-break game for the Bengals.

Forrest's Favourites (Season record: 14-10 — All odds courtesy of BetMGM):

Bengals @ Chargers — Pick: Bengals +1.5 (-110): The Bengals have no margin for error. With a spread this tight, we're riding with the team that will be playing with some extra motivation.

Ravens @ Steelers — Pick: Ravens -3.0 (-110): The Ravens can score in bunches, but their defence still leaves a lot to be desired. Thankfully, star safety Kyle Hamilton is off the injury report and will be back for this divisional showdown. We think he will make a big difference. Take the Ravens.

Patriots @ Rams — Pick: Rams -4.5 (-110): The Rams' offence struggled in Thursday's loss to the Dolphins. A loss to the Patriots and the Rams' season is all but over. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford will be determined to show that the Rams are still a threat. The Rams are also 4-1 against the spread as road favourites since 2022.

Full Week 11 schedule:

Thursday, Nov. 14

Philadelphia Eagles 26, Washington Commanders 18

Sunday, Nov. 17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots, 1 p.m. ET
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m. ET
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m. ET
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m. ET
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, 4:25 p.m. ET
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:20 p.m. ET

Monday, Nov. 18

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys, 8:15 p.m. ET

Teams on a bye: Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers