Heading into Week 12, we have the first change atop the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM, the best online sportsbook. The Detroit Lions (+350) are ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs (+450), who lost their first game of the season 30-21 on the road against the Buffalo Bills.
Below, you’ll see my online football betting picks against the spread for this week.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears lost 20-19 to the Green Bay Packers after their field goal was blocked on the final play. The two touchdowns came from the ground game, but the Vikings haven’t allowed a rushing score since Week 7, further limiting the Bears. Over the last four games, QB Caleb Williams has 699 yards, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions and is averaging 5.54 yards per attempt. Now, he faces a pass defence averaging 1.6 interceptions per game.
PICK: Vikings -3.5 (-105)
Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Lions and Colts both won in Week 11. Colts QB Anthony Richardson threw a touchdown and ran for another pair. The Lions have allowed just one passing touchdown over the last three weeks. As for QB rushing scores, they’ve only surrendered two all season. Additionally, the Lions have held running backs to 40 carries for 87 yards (2.175 yards per carry) over the last two weeks. A double-digit win is incoming.
PICK: Lions -8 (-110)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have struggled against tight ends, allowing two touchdowns over the past three games. They’ve also given up 131 yards or more in two of the last four games. TE Hunter Henry is the Patriots' prime receiver, leading the team in targets, catches, and yards. They'll squeak out a cover but lose on the road.
PICK: Patriots +7.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants
The Giants are benching Daniel Jones in favour of Tommy DeVito as they host the Buccaneers, coming off a bye. There might be less turnover potential with DeVito, but I’m not confident this offence can compete with Tampa Bay. Additionally, the Buccaneers have allowed just one rushing score to RBs over the last four games, further limiting the Giants offence.
PICK: Buccaneers -5 (-110)
The Cowboys scored just 10 points in Week 11 and face a defence that allows just 200.64 passing yards and 1.55 passing touchdowns per game. The Cowboys' run defence has been dreadful, allowing 1.3 rushing scores per game to RBs. They’ve also allowed five rushing scores to QBs this season and face a rushing threat, Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. This Cowboys offence can't score, averaging eight points over the last two games.
PICK: Commanders -10.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers, who are coming off a bye, host the Chiefs. The Chiefs lost their first game of the season to the Bills. The Panthers are 1-3 at home against the spread and face a KC defence that’s allowed just three rushing touchdowns to RBs since Week 4. Panthers QB Bryce Young has thrown for 171 yards passing or less in each of the last two games. I have no faith in the Panthers offence.
PICK: Chiefs -11.5 (-110)
The Titans have lost the last two games, but QB Will Levis has played OK. He averaged 7.6 yards per attempt in Week 10 and 9.1 in Week 11. He’s pushing the ball downfield, which could be beneficial against a Texans defence allowing two passing touchdowns per game. The Titans have a strong run defence, allowing 3.69 yards per carry and should slow things down for Texans RB Joe Mixon, who’s coming off a three-touchdown performance.
PICK: Titans +8 (-110)
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Broncos QB Bo Nix has been sensational since Week 2. He’s thrown for 1,891 yards, 14 touchdowns, two interceptions. He’s also added three rushing scores.
The Raiders have surrendered eight passing touchdowns over the last two games.
Nix threw for 307 yards and four touchdowns last week and continues his tear here.
PICK: Broncos -5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
The 49ers and Packers are inside the bottom seven in touchdown scoring percentage in the red zone. The 49ers have a slight lead (48.78 to 48.72 per cent).
Packers QB Jordan Love has thrown at least one interception in each game, and the 49ers defence averages more than one pick per game. So, while both teams struggle to score touchdowns in the red zone, Love’s propensity for turnovers pushes me slightly toward the 49ers. Also, Brock Purdy’s right shoulder soreness is something to keep tabs on during the week.
PICK: 49ers +1.5 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals are in first place in the NFC West, and a big part of that is their pass defence lately. They’ve allowed just one passing touchdown over the last four games. The Seahawks saw 49ers QB Brock Purdy score a rushing touchdown against them last week. They now face Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, who has four rushing scores. The Cardinals’ defence continues to play well in a win here.
In a crowded NFC West, the Cardinals are first with a one-game lead. The 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams are just behind with identical 5-5 records.
PICK: Cardinals +1 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams
Rams QB Matthew Stafford had four touchdowns against the Patriots, but now he faces an Eagles defence that’s given up just two passing scores since Week 4. The Rams’ run defence has been solid since Week 5, not allowing a rushing score to RBs, but they still give up 100 rushing yards per game. Look for the Eagles to take advantage of a Rams pass defence that surrenders nearly two passing touchdowns per game.
PICK: Eagles -3 (-105)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Here we go, the “Harbaugh Bowl” has arrived. Jim’s Chargers host John’s Ravens. The Chargers have given up just one rushing touchdown to RBs this season, which bodes well against the league’s top rusher, Derrick Henry. Chargers QB Justin Herbert will have a chance to do some damage against the league’s worst pass defence, ranking dead last in passing yards allowed and 1.91 passing scores per game.
PICK: Chargers +2.5 (-110)
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