NFL Week 14 betting preview: Can 49ers' Purdy make history vs. Brady?

December 12, 2022 - 10:50am

Evanka Osmak is joined by Kyle Brandt for another edition of Cover 4 to discuss the Saints fourth quarter collapse to the Buccaneers, whether the Bengals are the best team in the AFC & if the 49ers title aspirations are over without Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Raiders blew a late fourth-quarter lead and hurt their slim chances at sneaking into the AFC playoffs by losing to the Rams on Thursday night.

Baker Mayfield led an impressive game-winning drive just two days after signing with L.A. If that performance and finish ends up setting the tone for Week 14 then we’re in for some wild action this weekend.

It’s the final week for byes and five of the six teams off in Week 14 are from the NFC (Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Washington, plus AFC's Indianapolis), so it’ll be interesting to see how the schedule impacts the various playoff races in each conference.

The Eagles, Vikings and potentially Chiefs can all lock up playoff berths this weekend. Philly and Minnesota can each do it by winning, while Kansas City needs a win plus a Chargers loss to officially clinch the AFC West for a seventh consecutive season.

Here’s the remaining Week 14 board with betting lines, totals, tidbits, and picks.

SPREADS & TOTALS

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) | Over/Under: 36.5
Cleveland Browns (+5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) | Over/Under: 46.5
New York Jets (+10.0) at Buffalo Bills (-10.0) | Over/Under: 43.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
Houston Texans (+17.5) at Dallas Cowboys (-17.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.0) at New York Giants (+7.0) | Over/Under: 44.5
Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) at Detroit Lions (-1.5) | Over/Under: 51.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos (+9.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) | Over/Under: 37.5
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) | Over/Under: 53.5
New England Patriots (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) | Over/Under: 43.5

Ravens-Steelers features the lowest total of the week with Lamar Jackson injured. Pittsburgh overs are 2-1 in division games while Baltimore overs are 0-2 when playing fellow AFC North teams.

The Bengals have covered four in a row heading into Week 14, but the underdog has covered in six consecutive meetings in the Battle of Ohio.

Buffalo (2-2 ATS as home favourite) has covered seven of the past 10 meetings with the Jets. New York QB Mike White, who has 684 passing yards in his two starts this season, threw four interceptions against the Bills in his final of four appearances in 2021.

Derrick Henry has averaged 36.5 rushing yards over his past four games after averaging a whopping 135.6 over a five-game stretch through October and into November. The Titans are 9-2 against the Jags with Henry on the field. He has averaged 103.9 yards and has 14 rushing TDs in 11 career games versus Jacksonville.

#Titans RB @KingHenry_2 has been beastly vs the @Jaguars. pic.twitter.com/uNwQ1icPKC

— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) December 8, 2022

Cowboys-Texans is the biggest mismatch of the week, on paper, with Dallas a three-score favourite over the Giants. Dallas has covered six in a row at home against teams with a losing record.

The over has hit in eight of the past 10 meetings between the Eagles and Giants.

The Vikings were favoured in each of the past four meetings against the Lions but Detroit covered the spread in all four of those meetings. This time the Lions are slight home favourites and 1-1 ATS when favoured this season.

Kansas City unders are 4-1 in the past five, while Denver unders are an NFL best 11-1 this year. Patrick Mahomes is a perfect 9-0 versus the Broncos in his career with 12 TD passes and four INTs in those nine contests.

The Seahawks and Panthers have gone over the listed total in each of the past six times they’ve met. Carolina has covered in five of its past six games.

49ers third-stringer-turned-starter Brock Purdy will become the seventh quarterback to make his first career NFL start against Tom Brady. The previous six were unsuccessful.

Good luck, Brock Purdy.

QBs facing Tom Brady in their first career starts are 0-6 all-time.

Here's the list:
NYJ Luke Falk (2019),
BUF EJ Manuel (2013),
TEN Jake Locker (2012),
KC Tyler Palko (2011),
GB Matt Flynn (2010)
CLE Luke McCown (2004)

Thank you, @NFLResearch

— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) December 7, 2022

The Chargers, 6-6 and coming off a disappointing loss to the Raiders, are on a streak of 10-2 ATS when coming off a straight up defeat.

Arizona is 2-10 ATS in the past dozen Monday games in which they’ve played. New England coach Bill Belichick is 4-1 straight up and ATS against the Cardinals since joining the Patriots.

MIKEY J’S CARD…

(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 95-114-4)

Favourites ATS (22-26-1): All favourites

Underdogs ATS (27-23-3): N/A

Overs (10-23): N/A

Unders (21-25): All unders

Moneyline dogs (16-19): N/A

(Listed odds above via Covers as of Friday and subject to change)

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