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NFL Week 15 player props: Expect Godwin to stay hot against the Saints

We head into Week 15 with a ton of uncertainly with all the Covid issues around the NFL. We’re still feeling confident though, after going a 10-6 combined over the past five weeks. So, let’s get back to our winning ways right before the holidays! I’ve done all the work for you here in case you’re thinking about throwing down a little cheddar on your NFL Sunday.

Here are some players that could put a little holiday cheer into your pocket.

Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 22-21 (-3.25 units)

Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos 4:05 p.m. ET

Wager(s) to watch: TE Noah Fant total receiving yards (Over 33.5 -125, Under 33.5 -115), TE Noah Fant total pass receptions (Over 3.5 +100, Under 3.5 -140)

Cincinnati and Denver square off at Empower Field at Mile High today with both teams trying to keep pace in the very tight AFC playoff race. The Broncos have dominated the series, especially in Denver, where they’ve won 13 of 16. But we’re here to focus on Noah Fant’s total receiving yards and pass receptions prop.

Fant caught all four of his targets for 51 yards in last Sunday’s 38-10 beat down of the Lions. He has 53 receptions on the season which leads the Broncos. Fant continues to be the favourite target of Teddy ‘Two Gloves’ Bridgewater. The 24-year-old tight end has received 71 targets and is averaging 6.7 yards per target this season.

Let’s get our nerd on and talk some advanced metrics! Denver’s No. 1 tight end is averaging 34.0 air yards per game and 0.66 air yards per snap which are all well above league average for tight ends. Fant is also garnering 17.2 per cent of the Broncos’ team targets. He’s also making the most out of his opportunities by being super efficient. Fant has a 0.00 drop rate percentage and his catch rate is 74.6 per cent, both above league average.

The Bengals, meanwhile, were torched by San Francisco’s George Kittle last week. The Niners’ No. 1 tight end had 13 catches on 15 targets for 151 yards and a touchdown. Cincinnati’s pass defence has given up 757 receiving yards to TEs this season, which ranks 20th in the NFL. The Bengals have been getting worse recently while trying to shut down the tight end position. Cincy has surrendered 530 receiving yards to TEs over their past eight weeks, which ranks 31st in the NFL.

The Bengals have yielded 8.69 yards per target to tight ends over their past eight weeks, which is 30th in the league during that span. Cincinnati has also allowed 44 receptions (6.2 per game) to tight ends over their past seven games which is 27th in the NFL. Cincy has also surrendered 245.0 passing yards per game on the road this season, which is in the middle of the pack in the National Football League.

Pick: If Noah Fant can make the most of his target share against a Cincinnati defence that is struggling big time against tight ends, I think there is value here with this matchup. Take Fant’s receiving total of 33.5 to go OVER at -125 and his total pass receptions of 3.5 to go OVER +100.

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New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8:20 p.m. ET

Wager to watch: WR Chris Godwin total receiving yards (Over 79.5 -120, Under 79.5 -120)

The Bucs put up their perfect 6-0 record at Raymond James Stadium when they host divisional rival New Orleans tonight. The Saints, though, have won the past six regular-season meetings highlighted by a 35-point victory in Tampa last season. The Buccaneers have won four straight, but we want to talk about Chris Godwin’s total receiving yards prop here.

Godwin hauled in 10 passes for 105 yards on 15 targets in Tampa’s 33-27 overtime win over the Bills last Sunday. The 25-year-old wide receiver has been the focal point of the Bucs’ passing attack lately by racking up consecutive double-digit reception tallies. Godwin barbecued the Saints’ secondary on Halloween by catching eight balls for 140 yards on 12 targets. He’s also been on the field for 195 snaps over the past four weeks which is just one snap behind teammate Mike Evans for the most among Tampa Bay pass catchers. Some key metrics are also well above league average for the Buccaneers wide-out. Godwin is averaging 63.5 air yards per game, 6.6 yards after the catch and is averaging 0.06 yards per route run.

New Orleans, meanwhile, has had some trouble lately trying to slow down wide receivers. The Saints have coughed up 1332 yards to WRs over the past eight weeks which is 30th in the NFL in that time frame. N’awlins has also given up 8.59 yards per target to wide-outs which is 25th in the league over the past eight weeks. It doesn’t stop there; the Saints have allowed 100 receptions to wide receivers which ranks 28th in the league over the past eight weeks.

Pick: This pick is all about the matchup. New Orleans’ best cornerback Marshon Lattimore should once again get the assignment of shadowing Mike Evans. In each of the last four Bucs-Saints games, Lattimore has followed Evans on at least 65 per cent of his snaps, and twice on 75 per cent of them or more. That means more opportunity for Chris Godwin who is red-hot lately. I think there is too much value here with this matchup, so take Godwin’s receiving total of 79.5 to go OVER at -120.

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