NFL Week 16 betting preview: Winter weather to have major impact

We’re coming off a truly wild Week 15 that featured a handful of epic comebacks with massive playoff implications. The matchups this week, however, are largely forgettable, with only five of this week’s 16 games featuring two teams at or above .500.

The bulk of the games this week take place Saturday and conclude with a Christmas Day triple-header and a Chargers-Colts Monday Night Football showdown.

Also, as of Thursday, half the games had totals lower than 40 points. This is mostly due to a large winter weather system that'll impact games on the East Coast and into the Midwest of the United States. Keep an eye on the weather and how it affects both lines and totals this weekend, particularly on Saturday.

The game of the week is an NFC East showdown between 13-1 Philadelphia and 10-4 Dallas, but with Jalen Hurts nursing a shoulder injury, the Eagles will roll with backup QB Gardner Minshew.

Three remaining playoff spots are open in the NFC, while all but two have been settled in the AFC. How many more teams will either clinch or be eliminated this week?

Here’s a look at the full Week 16 board with betting lines, totals, tidbits, and picks.

SATURDAY SLATE

Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at Chicago Bears (+8.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Atlanta Falcons (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) | Over/Under: 35.5
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers (+2.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) | Over/Under: 32.5
Seattle Seahawks (+10.0) at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.0) | Over/Under: 48.5
Houston Texans (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) | Over/Under: 35.5
New York Giants (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0) at New England Patriots (+3.0) | Over/Under: 41.5
Washington Commanders (+7.0) at San Francisco 49ers (-7.0) | Over/Under: 37.5
Philadelphia Eagles (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) | Over/Under: 39.0

Bears overs are 7-1 in the past eight games, while Bills overs are 9-2 in the team’s past 11 games that took place on a Saturday.

The Ravens have scored more than 16 points only once since their Week 10 bye; Desmond Ridder had a forgettable debut for the Falcons last week, going 13 for 26 for a mere 97 yards and was sacked four times.

Lions-Panthers is the rat line of the week. Why are the Lions, winners of three straight and six of the past seven, laying less than a FG to Carolina? The underdog has covered six of the past eight meetings and the home team has covered in four of the past five. Detroit has covered seven in a row overall.

Seahawks-Chiefs games have gone over the listed total in each of the last five times they’ve played each other. This game features the second-highest total of the week.

Saints-Browns features the lowest total of the season. There hasn’t been a total lower than 32 in nearly 15 years. Weather will likely be a factor in Deshaun Watson’s second home start in a Browns uniform.

Can Derrick Henry dominate the Texans one more time? The Titans running back has accumulated nine rushing TDs and close to 900 yards over his past four games versus Houston. Malik Willis will start for Tennessee. The rookie quarterback beat Houston in Week 8 in his first career start despite attempting only 10 and completing six passes in the game.

The favourite has covered the spread six consecutive times when the Vikings and Giants meet.

Patriots games have gone under the listed total four times in a row after a straight-up New England loss and they’ve covered in six of the past seven against the Bengals.

Washington is 5-0 ATS in its past five Saturday games and Commanders overs have hit in eight consecutive Saturday games.

The Cowboys have covered four in a row at home against the Eagles. Minshew’s most recent start was Week 18 last season, which happened to be against Dallas. Minshew (8-14 as a starter; 1-1 as a starter with Philly) went 19-for-33 for 186 yards, two touchdown passes, one interception and was sacked thrice in a 51-26 loss.

Las Vegas and Pittsburgh were two of the four AFC teams with 6-8 records entering the week. The Raiders have covered each of the past five games against the Steelers; they were underdogs in all five of those contests.

CHRISTMAS TRIPLE-HEADER/MNF

Green Bay Packers (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins (-3.5) | Over/Under: 50.5
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) | Over/Under: 36.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) | Over/Under: 39.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) | Over/Under: 45.5

The Packers, coming off a win Monday, are 2-1 ATS this season with a rest disadvantage; the Dolphins, looking to bounce back from three straight losses and a last-second loss to Buffalo last Saturday, are 2-1 ATS with a rest advantage.

The underdog has covered the last six times the Broncos and Rams have met.

Arizona is 2-3 ATS as home dogs this season and the Bucs are 2-3 ATS as road faves; Tampa remains the worst team ATS overall this season at 3-10-1.

The Chargers have covered seven of the past 10 meetings versus the Colts, who have covered five straight after allowing more than 30 points in their previous outing.

MIKEY J'S CARD…

(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record: 114-135-5)

Favourites ATS (30-35-2): Lions -2.5, Titans -3.5, Bengals -3.0, Chargers -4.5,

Underdogs ATS (29-24-3): Bears +8.5, Falcons +7.5

Overs (11-24): WAS/SF 37.5, GB/MIA 50.5, DEN/LAR 36.5

Unders (29-33): NO/CLE 32.5, SEA/KC 48.5, NYG/MIN 47.5, PHI/DAL 47.5, LV/PIT 39.0, TB/ARI 39.5

Moneyline dogs (16-21): Eagles, Raiders, Saints

Coming off a 9-5-1 Week 15 on spreads and totals, we’re making one pick for each game above this week. Happy holidays, enjoy the games, and best of luck with your (responsible) weekend wagers!

(Listed odds and trends above via Covers as of Thursday and subject to change)