As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.
Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space.
Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of Week 17 in the NFL.
1. MVP taste test
Don’t let the narratives fool you. The numbers would suggest the MVP-worthy performances are much closer than you’d think. Dak Prescott was considered an MVP front-runner a few weeks ago before consecutive losses. Lamar Jackson was well behind in the race a few weeks back before a few high-profile wins. Prescott has a 79.4 completion percentage, 3,892 passing yards and a 104.3 passer rating. Jackson, on the other hand, has a 66.3 completion percentage, 3,357 passing yards and the 97.3 passer rating.
2. Lamar at his best
Jackson is now the MVP favourite because he plays his best against the toughest competition. This season, Jackson is 6-0 versus top-10 scoring defences on the road. If the Baltimore Ravens make it to the Super Bowl, Jackson is a safe bet. Jackson is 20-1 versus NFC opponents over his career.
3. Playoff-bound Browns
After winning four straight games, the Cleveland Browns have clinched their third playoff appearance since they came back in the NFL in 1999. The Browns are the third AFC team to clinch a playoff spot.
4. Browns' next-man-up mentality
The Browns have truly had a next-man-up mentality, as most of their best players are hurt. Their Week 1 starting quarterback, running back, right tackle, left tackle, strong safety and free safety are all on IR. They’ve had seven offensive starters placed on IR, the most in the league. Most of the injuries were at the QB position. Cleveland is the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs after having four starting quarterbacks start multiple games.
5. Joe Flacco is elite
Joe Flacco is the first player in Browns history with 300-plus passing yards in four consecutive games. He’s also the first player in NFL history with 250-plus passing yards and two-plus TDs in each of his first five games with a team. Flacco joins the elite company to become just the fifth QB to pass for 1,500 yards and 12 or more passing TDs in the month of December. The others are Peyton Manning (2013), Drew Brees (2012), Tony Romo (2012) and Kurt Warner (2012). Both Warner and Manning would go on to win MVP and reach the Super Bowl.
6. Russ Wilson cooking takeout
Russell Wilson was benched this week and although his play has dipped, there is more to the story. In Weeks 1-12, Wilson had 20 TD passes to four interceptions, 68 completion percentage and 56 total QBR. That’s the best TD-to-interception ratio in the NFL in the first 12 weeks. Since Week 13, however, Wilson has just six TDs to his four interceptions, with a 62-completion percentage and 38 total QBR. Despite the recent struggles, Wilson is the first Broncos QB since Peyton Manning to throw a TD pass in each of the first 15 games of the season. Wilson’s play may have dropped from good to average, but the reason for his benching was strictly financial, not football-related.
7. New low for Mahomes era
Both personally and as a team, this is the worst season in the illustrious career of Patrick Mahomes. He’s already suffered his most regular-season losses, with six, with a career-high 14 interceptions. The Kansas City offensive output of 22 points per game, 355.4 total yards per game, 253.5 pass yards per game 45.3 third-down percentage are all career lows. The 22.2 points per game this season are tied for 11th in the NFL, which is the lowest total for Kansas City since 2014. The Chiefs have scored fewer than 20 points seven times this season. Things are getting worse, not better. Mahomes' 46.4 total QBR since Week 8 is 21st in the NFL. Because of it, they are just 3-5 in their last eight games after a 6-1 start.
8. New low in New York
It is believed GM Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh will come back next year for the New York Jets. Although it's hard to judge them after Aaron Rodgers was hurt on the first drive of the season, you could make the argument this is the worst-ever era of Jets football. This is the Jets' fourth consecutive 10-loss season, which is a franchise record. Not many regimes lose that many games and live through it.
9. Puka Nacua making history
Puka Nacua has a chance to break multiple rookie single-season receiving records. With 96 receptions, the record of 104 in a season by Jaylen Waddle is within reach. As is the receiving-yards record, as Nacua has 1,327; the record is 1,473 by Bill Groman. If Nacua reaches either, he’ll likely also eclipse the record for 100-plus receiving-yard games, as he is currently at six, and the record is seven, held by Odell Beckham Jr. and Justin Jefferson.
10. Matt Patricia not the answer in Philly
The Philadelphia Eagles have turned to Matt Patricia to save their defence as their defensive play caller. It seems like a panicked decision, as Patricia’s defences have never been great, even though he’s part of the Bill Belichick coaching tree. In Patricia’s last year in New England, the Pats were 27th in EPA per play. In six seasons with New England, the Pats finished in the top 10 in defence just once. When Patricia left to be the head coach of the Detroit Lions, they were 31st in EPA per play in his three years in Detroit. If Philadelphia’s defence plays well with him coordinating the defence, it would be the exception, not the rule.
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