NFL Week 18 By the Numbers: Why Ravens' offence is another story entirely

As the great philosopher Sean “Jay-Z” Carter famously said on the Blueprint 3, “men lie, women lie, numbers don’t.” When it comes to prognosticating and evaluating the NFL, a few key numbers tell a greater story.

Whether it’s your wagers, survivor pool, fantasy choices or bragging rights at your NFL watch party and group chats, I’ll provide those numbers on a weekly basis in this space.

Here are 10 stats that will tell the story of Week 18 in the NFL.

1. Ravens O best of the best 

Nobody is playing better offensively than the Baltimore Ravens, and they’re getting better, not worse, as the season goes on. They’ve scored 20-plus points in 11 straight games. They’ve scored more than 30 points in a game eight times, all since Week 7. And they’ve done it against the league’s best teams. Since their bye, they’ve beat the Rams, Jaguars, 49ers and Dolphins. All but one of those games were blowouts. 

2. Lamar, the perfect passer

Remember when the knock on Lamar Jackson was that he couldn’t accurately pass the football? Now, he’s become the most lethal pocket passer in the NFL. The last three players to have four passing touchdowns, a perfect passer rating and more TDs than incompletions is ... Lamar Jackson. Jackson has three career perfect passer rating games, and the only QB to do it four times is Ben Roethlisberger. Jackson will have to wait a few weeks to get No. 4, as he’s being rested in the final week of the regular season with Baltimore having already clinched a playoff spot, and will also be idle in Round 1 of the playoffs, as the Ravens have clinched a first-round bye. 

3. Baltimore D the best ever? 

No team has ever led the league in points allowed, takeaways and sacks. With a game to go, Baltimore leads in all categories. Although the Ravens will be resting starters, they have the chance to make history this weekend. 

4. Stroud in the zone 

C.J. Stroud matches up well this weekend because of how prolific he is versus zone coverages. Stroud has a 72 QBR (second) and 7.5 yards per drop back (fourth) against zone coverage. The Indianapolis Colts defence, led by Gus Bradley, uses zone coverage the fourth-most in the NFL, at 69 per cent, and 33 per cent of the time it’s Cover 3. 

5. Allen accuracy dips 

Although the Buffalo Bills have won four consecutive games, their quarterback's play has regressed. Last week, Josh Allen did not throw a TD pass for the first time all season. When you look at the lowest completion percentage since Week 10, only rookie Bryce Young, at 55.6 per cent, has a lower completion percentage than Allen, whose 57.1 completion percentage is barely better than the 57.8 per cent put up by Will Levis in that time frame. Last Sunday versus the Patriots, Allen was at just 50 per cent (15-for-30). 

6. Allen takes his talents to South Beach 

Allen will be happy to see the teal of the Miami this week — he is averaging 341 pass yards per game, 10 passing TDs and zero interceptions in last three games versus the Dolphins. The issue for Miami is Allen is best when not pressured, with a 73 QBR when not pressured this season, 10th in the NFL. 

7. Dolphins under pressure

The issue for the Dolphins will be the ability to pressure Allen with both of their defensive ends injured and out for the season. The latest of whom is Bradley Chubb, who was lost for the year in garbage time last week. The Dolphins defence this season has been entirely different when Chubb was off the field, which is about to become the new normal. With Chubb on the field for 81 per cent of the Dolphins' plays, opposing QBs had a 44 total QBR and were pressured 38 per cent of the time, which would lead all NFL teams in 2023. With Chubb off the field for the remaining 19 per cent of defensive plays, the total QBR given up rose to 79 per cent and the pressure percentage dropped to 28. 

8. All Tomlin does is win 

We will have to wait to see if the Pittsburgh Steelers are again playoff bound, but we already know they’ll finish the year winning more games than they lost. Mike Tomlin has led the Steelers to a .500-or-better record in each of his 17 seasons as head coach and surpassed George Halas (16) for the third-longest streak of consecutive .500-or-better seasons. Only Tom Landry (21) and Bill Belichick (19) have a longer streak.

9. No Big Dom, no defence

The Philadelphia Eagles fell to 1-4 without Dom "Big Dom" DiSandro, their suspended chief security officer, last week but the real reason they lost four of the last five is they’ve lost their defence. Since Week 12, their defence has been bad at everything. It has given up 31.5 points per game (31st), 398.8 yards per game (31st), and has a third-down percentage of 52 per cent. The biggest difference from a year ago is the defence has just 41 sacks this year, after having a league-leading 70 last year.

10. Hurts calling Brown’s number outside  

The other number that tells the story of the Eagles' recent struggles is Jalen Hurts' struggles targeting AJ Brown outside the numbers. In Weeks 1-12, Hurts put up a 61 per cent completion percentage, 10.5 yards per attempt, six TDs and two interceptions to Brown outside the numbers. Since Week 13, those numbers have dipped to just 41 completion percentage, 5.4 yards per attempt, no TD passes and one interception. Altogether, Brown still has managed to have a great year, with 105 receptions and seven TDs. But things are trending in the wrong direction, as in the last three games he has just 15 receptions for 189 yards and no TDs.